ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sandy looks like it's going to do a small loop.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a near stall wobble on visible.

[wxman57]

Can we expect a new eye feature to form (baroclinicly?) with Sandy like the ones we have seen in similar storms, like the 1991 Perfect Storm or the blizzard of 2006.

It is quite possible. Those "eye-like features" are common in the most powerful hybrid storms. They are called warm air seclusions because warm air gets wrapped into the center by the complex way fronts are drawn into the system.

Note that the "Perfect Storm" which spawned such a hurricane was located over water. If Sandy does move inland Tuesday morning and stays there, then the chances of such an event are low.

[Frank2]

I just had a chance to realize that my post of a few hours ago has been run up the flagpole (lol)...

I also read the tweets posted above by James Franklin, etc., and the surge issue is troubling, for sure...

We'll see what happens, though glad at least one brave soul agreed that Sandy is definitely not the system it was 48 hours ago...

Again, per the tweets the surge issue is troubling if Sandy does turn NW and make landfall at a 45 degree angle...

Nothing wrong with being hopeful, but I did leave a voice mail message for my brother and his wife last evening - who live in coastal New Jersey, and told them that if they are told to evacuate, then they must...

P.S. Yes, TWC mentioned that too - the Perfect Storm was an oceanic event that affected only areas right along the coastline, unlike this scenario...

P.P.S. The "Perfect Storm" phrase was coined by the late Robert "Bob" Case who worked at the NHC during my time (1980's) - a nice man (similar to Jim Cantore in many ways), and missed by all...

Frank

[jeff]

Folks need to be focusing on the impacts and not so much the exact track and how it relates to other major NE storms. A very large area is going to be impacted and it is clear that a significant and potentially life threatening prolonged storm surge event will impact some portion of the NE/mid Atlantic coast. I still am skeptical of the very low forecasted pressures, but even if sandy held the pressures now to landfall it would be a fairly rare event.

Should be an interesting continuity of warning operations between NHC and HPC if/when they decide to go over to extra-tropical. I would let is ride tropical to the coast even though it may be marginal given the "public" attitude toward anything other than a named hurricane. Switching from tropical to non-tropical watches/warnings will be beyond confusing. As stated time and time again...the impacts will be the same.

[yzerfan]

Delta has already started to waive flight change charges for many potentially affected states, and other airlines are likely at that point as well:

http://www.delta.com/traveling_checkin/ ... /index.jsp


" East Coast Storm

Last Updated: October 26, 2012, 3pm EDT (-4 GMT)

A major storm is expected to affect travel to, from, and through much of the northeastern United States. Check flight status frequently for up-to-the-minute info about your flight plans, or get updates sent directly to your wireless device or email with Delta Messenger.
Rescheduling Flights

If your flight is canceled or significantly delayed, you are entitled to a refund. Even if your flight is not canceled, you may make a one-time change to your ticket without fee if you are scheduled to travel to, from, or through the following cities on Delta, Delta Connection®, or Delta-coded flights during the specified time periods listed below.

You can now edit your itinerary here at delta.com, or you may contact Reservation Sales to make changes to your itinerary. Additional collection in fares may apply. See Conditions & Restrictions below.
Affected Destination(s)
(To / From / Through) Impacted
Travel
Date(s)

Ticket must
be Reissued
On or Before
Rebooked Travel
must begin
no later than
• Delaware (DE)
• District of Columbia (DC)
• Maryland (MD)
• New Jersey (NJ)
• New York (NY)
• North Carolina (NC)
• South Carolina (SC)
• Virginia (VA)
Oct 29-31, 2012 Nov 4, 2012 Nov 4, 2012"

[KBBOCA]

Disclaimer - this isn't a "political post" I promise. But I do have a question for our weather buffs / history buffs here.

I just read that in VA (Dominion Power), polling places will be considered "high priority" for power restoration along with emergency response sites, hospitals etc.

The risk of Sandy disrupting the election for a good swath of the East Coast, including several major "battleground states" seems real. Has there ever been a major weather event that has affected a US Presidential election for more than a very localized area? Does anyone know if a Presidential election has ever been extended or postponed due to weather?

[ROCK]

Disclaimer - this isn't a "political post" I promise. But I do have a question for our weather buffs / history buffs here.

I just read that in VA (Dominion Power), polling places will be considered "high priority" for power restoration along with emergency response sites, hospitals etc.

The risk of Sandy disrupting the election for a good swath of the East Coast, including several major "battleground states" seems real. Has there ever been a major weather event that has affected a US Presidential election for more than a very localized area? Does anyone know if a Presidential election has ever been extended or postponed due to weather?

good question.....PT would be the guy to ask...hes like a walking historian...

[ozonepete]

Can we expect a new eye feature to form (baroclinicly?) with Sandy like the ones we have seen in similar storms, like the 1991 Perfect Storm or the blizzard of 2006.

It is quite possible. Those "eye-like features" are common in the most powerful hybrid storms. They are called warm air seclusions because warm air gets wrapped into the center by the complex way fronts are drawn into the system.

Note that the "Perfect Storm" which spawned such a hurricane was located over water. If Sandy does move inland Tuesday morning and stays there, then the chances of such an event are low.

Oh absolutely. I neglected to say warm air seclusions generally develop only while the center is over water. Up here usually while it's over the Gulf Stream. It only happens when the low takes on the Shapiro-Keyser model type. It wouldn't happen over land. I was thinking if it goes extratropical before landfall it could develop a warm air seclusion but it's only a possibility. way too early to know when this will transition for sure.

[Portastorm]

Disclaimer - this isn't a "political post" I promise. But I do have a question for our weather buffs / history buffs here.

I just read that in VA (Dominion Power), polling places will be considered "high priority" for power restoration along with emergency response sites, hospitals etc.

The risk of Sandy disrupting the election for a good swath of the East Coast, including several major "battleground states" seems real. Has there ever been a major weather event that has affected a US Presidential election for more than a very localized area? Does anyone know if a Presidential election has ever been extended or postponed due to weather?

good question.....PT would be the guy to ask...hes like a walking historian...

A quick Google search indicates that we have never had a presidential election delayed, including during the Civil War years.

[jeff]

Note: Wave Watch III is maxed out at 42-48 feet off the NE US coast early next week with a massive fetch/swell train from near Spain all the way to the US coast. This is a result of the blocking high NE of Sandy and the large pressure gradient field between this high and Sandy which spans hundreds of miles. There is little doubt with this fetch and wave setup that the Atlantic is going to be coming inland.

[Ptarmigan]

Disclaimer - this isn't a "political post" I promise. But I do have a question for our weather buffs / history buffs here.

I just read that in VA (Dominion Power), polling places will be considered "high priority" for power restoration along with emergency response sites, hospitals etc.

The risk of Sandy disrupting the election for a good swath of the East Coast, including several major "battleground states" seems real. Has there ever been a major weather event that has affected a US Presidential election for more than a very localized area? Does anyone know if a Presidential election has ever been extended or postponed due to weather?

good question.....PT would be the guy to ask...hes like a walking historian...

Are you referring to me? I never heard of a Presidential Election extended or postponed because of bad weather.

[Hurricaneman]

Disclaimer - this isn't a "political post" I promise. But I do have a question for our weather buffs / history buffs here.

I just read that in VA (Dominion Power), polling places will be considered "high priority" for power restoration along with emergency response sites, hospitals etc.

The risk of Sandy disrupting the election for a good swath of the East Coast, including several major "battleground states" seems real. Has there ever been a major weather event that has affected a US Presidential election for more than a very localized area? Does anyone know if a Presidential election has ever been extended or postponed due to weather?

good question.....PT would be the guy to ask...hes like a walking historian...

A quick Google search indicates that we have never had a presidential election delayed, including during the Civil War years.

If power is out on election day because of the storm I believe they would count the votes the old fashion way, paper vote and count by hand

[crimi481]

Off topic side bar:
Experts say its "Rare" - un heard of before - almost "Un Natural" series of weather events occurring
Extremely rare big blocking High (will stear it west to Mid Atl/ N.E. states)
Un -real/ Rare/ srange deep Low pressure off Fl Coast (no one sure what to all -besides Frankenberry )

Storm will vrtually put freeze on several major cities (Security risk) -Naval base lock downs, etc.
Storm Center may be on / close to Wash DC area
Is someone working that computer Joy Stick? Or just a peak into future? (Climate Change new type storms)

Off topic - and I will drop it.
Thanks

[KBBOCA]

A quick Google search indicates that we have never had a presidential election delayed, including during the Civil War years.

If power is out on election day because of the storm I believe they would count the votes the old fashion way, paper vote and count by hand

Right... but what about states like NJ and PA which mostly use touchscreen? How will they even PRINT paper ballots if there is massive power outage?

The election issue is certainly one of the factors which in my mind is causing this storm to seem totally unreal in terms of its potential impacts.

BTW, in Googling a bit myself, I found a VERY interesting blog entry which goes into great depth in analyzing potential ways in which the storm could disrupt the election / affect the outcome. (It seems pretty neutral politically, not overtly partisan)

http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/ ... -election/

[RVAHudson]

So, I have an ever-decreasing amount of faith in the media to tell me, accurately without hype, what I should be worried about, and when I should be worried about it.

We're in Richmond, VA. Based on everyone's best guess, what would be our biggest threats, if any... And should we by truly worried? We are a city split in half by the James River, which is always a concern.

[HurrMark]

I just had a chance to realize that my post of a few hours ago has been run up the flagpole (lol)...

I also read the tweets posted above by James Franklin, etc., and the surge issue is troubling, for sure...

We'll see what happens, though glad at least one brave soul agreed that Sandy is definitely not the system it was 48 hours ago...

Frank, first of all, I must commend you...you have been the voice of reason for many years here on Storm2K...you have downplayed hype and 95% of the time, you turn out to be right. So I am glad we have people like you on board who are a voice of reason.

That said, discussing this with wxman57, the NHC probably knew this metamorphasis was going to happen around this time, so I am a bit curious at why you think this will not be as bad as predicted given the model consensus and near-unanimous agreement across the met community. The only surprise I see is that it is weakening faster than expected...would not surprise me to see a T. S. later this evening (which I suspected last night)...but a 70 mph TS vs 80 mph hurricane will make little difference on the outcome.

[Frank2]

Interesting situation for sure - any word if the NOAA G-IV is flying this evening?

P.S. Congress wanted to cancel the 1864 election, but President Lincoln wisely insisted, saying that if it had been cancelled, it would send a message to Union citizens that the government was no longer able to continue (it was during the terrible seiges of 1864, when both sides were deadlocked in Virginia for many months with dwindling hope of a Union victory)...

P.P.S. Thanks, HurrMark for your kind comment and must say that I learned what is typed here from the fine HRD/NHC folks that I worked for during the 1980's - many were the pioneers in tropical meteorology...

My guess was based on the fact that earlier in the week models were showing Sandy looping out to sea, and as the Pro Mets have said, the current forecast track is very very unusual, and to me that also means the chance of it happening is less than if it would make the usual NE turn. I realize things have changed from earlier in the week, but my guess is that perhaps the event would at least be different from what everyone is fearing, though since posting a few hours ago the tweets and comments about the surge event is troubling - if it turns out as they fear.

Frank2

[somethingfunny]

Cat2 vs Cat1 vs TS.... I sadly have very little doubt that the Saffir-Simpson Scale will kill again with this storm.

It's a discussion for another thread; just please please please do not pay much attention to the maximum sustained winds of Sandy.

[jeff]

So, I have an ever-decreasing amount of faith in the media to tell me, accurately without hype, what I should be worried about, and when I should be worried about it.

We're in Richmond, VA. Based on everyone's best guess, what would be our biggest threats, if any... And should we by truly worried? We are a city split in half by the James River, which is always a concern.

Gusty wind starting Saturday in the 15-25mph range and then into the 25-35mph range by evening. Winds 35-45mph Sunday into Monday with a few gust up to 60mph possible. Rain heavy at times and flooding will be possible. Do not think surge will be a big issue in this area with the center of the low track to your north and winds shifting around from ENE on Saturday to N and NW on Monday and then W on Tuesday. Some downed tree limbs and power outages along with possible freshwater flooding if western side rain banding is heavy and prolonged. Toward the coast conditions will be worse with higher winds coming off the open ocean. Large swells and period of onshore winds Sunday could produce some surge impacts.