ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Well that was perfect...been gone all day and was wondering who picked up todays missoin...just got home, took a look at the tcpod before coming in here and saw the rescheduling. Ok whose building these homebrews off the coasts now?

My bad! I got bored and started playing with my weather machine

So... The truth now comes out. Are you the one responsible for all the Homebrew systems in 2005 as well? lol

Nah...I just recently bought one of these and decided to play around with it:

[wxman57]

My gut is saying faster, weaker, and farther south/west - crossing the Yucatan Wed and across the SW Gulf to Mexico. Not buying the north turn into the Gulf yet. My latest track has it reaching the Yucatan on Tuesday, by the way, not Wednesday.

[otowntiger]

Ernie's still moving too fast for his own good, imho. Still not close to being very organized system, but as they say there's still a long way to go and lots can happen in the next 4-5 days.

[Rgv20]

Dallas NWS afternoon discussion..

"BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAY BE IMPACTING THE WESTERN GULF
AREA WITH ENHANCED OUTTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INLAND
AND GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STORM HOWEVER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED (ACCORDING
TO THE GFS MODEL) TO PUSH INTO MEXICO FRIDAY AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THE YUCATAN PENNISULA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
PREVENTS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY MODEL RUNS
TO GO AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SO STAY TUNED."

Same gut feeling here wxman57, I see Ernesto going as far north as Central Mexico (Tampico area) but no more than that.

[Dave]

Well that was perfect...been gone all day and was wondering who picked up todays missoin...just got home, took a look at the tcpod before coming in here and saw the rescheduling. Ok whose building these homebrews off the coasts now?

My bad! I got bored and started playing with my weather machine

So... The truth now comes out. Are you the one responsible for all the Homebrew systems in 2005 as well? lol

Dang...now their all finding out Bruno's & my secret about 2005!

[Dave]

ROFL Brunota! Now give it back...I've got possible severe weather up here tomorrow afternoon and need it to recheck my weather.

[Ikester]

New update just came out on our system from the NHC. Track is identical as previous. Ready to re-emerge into the gulf at 2pm Wednesday after striking Cancun as a Cat. 1.

[Ivanhater]

Every model that strengthens Ernesto turns him north into the Gulf toward the northern Gulf coast. If Ernesto heads toward Mexico, it would be as a weak system according to the upper air pattern presented by the models.

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THE
APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.7N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT45 KNHC 032035
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR
IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Dave]

Now, in all seriousness it looks like we're going to see a lot of recon missions in the upcoming days so this is for anyone who would like to work a mission....go for it...we will need the help. Remember though to pace yourselves, don't try and do an entire mission by yourself esp if you're already tired because you will and I've done this myself...burn out. 6 to 8 hours working the hdobs, graphics and/or both will get to you after awhile so just take a break. When you want a break just ask and someone will pick them up more than likely. When I want a break I'm going to start giving the hdobs number that I would like someone to start with, this way we've got a continuous data flow without any breaks. If it's 3 am and nobody's around just say you need to take off and do it. I can grab the one's that are missing from the archives if need be the next morning.

Recon can be grueling & boring at times but it's a part of the bigger picture as to where & what the storm is actually doing and is definitly needed. Now I'm going to kick back and relax for another hour then see if the 6 pm recon into Ernesto takes off on schedule...and all the equipment works at the same time....just remember everyone is welcome to grab a mission...I'm not greedy...I like to sleep sometimes too!

[wxman57]

Every model that strengthens Ernesto turns him north into the Gulf toward the northern Gulf coast. If Ernesto heads toward Mexico, it would be as a weak system according to the upper air pattern presented by the models.

That's true, and that's the key. Will Ernesto even survive the next 24-36 hrs? I'm not certain that it will, at least as a strong TS or hurricane.

[cycloneye]

New update just came out on our system from the NHC. Track is identical as previous. Ready to re-emerge into the gulf at 2pm Wednesday after striking Cancun as a Cat. 1.

[latitude_20]

That new track actually looks to be 60-70 miles south of Cancun...

[CrazyC83]

I still wonder...91L could be the weakness this system needs to go north, that could play a major role.

[greenkat]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think that Ernesto will power through the Caribbean as expected and strike around the Cancun area as a Cat. 1 and re-emerge into the Gulf as a Cat. 1 and possibly strengthen into a Cat. 2, and landfall around the Brownsville area. Pretty hard to predict more than 92 hrs. in advance. Who knows?

[ConvergenceZone]

Every model that strengthens Ernesto turns him north into the Gulf toward the northern Gulf coast. If Ernesto heads toward Mexico, it would be as a weak system according to the upper air pattern presented by the models.

That's true, and that's the key. Will Ernesto even survive the next 24-36 hrs? I'm not certain that it will, at least as a strong TS or hurricane.

Yea, just like you WXMAN, I'm not sure Ernesto will survive either, lots of dry air in the eastern carib and you can really tell it's struggling...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Recon descending...


210100 1555N 06512W 5281 05451 0283 -028 -082 072017 021 025 000 00

[Weatherfreak000]

(master P voice) wish casters like uhhhhhhhhhh

Do we really need this going around this year? Honestly all I can tell is that the guy listened to the pro mets who almost seem to all have spoken upon a weakness the highest reliability models are showing. Still this far away from us do we need to start this war? Take it from me, at least wait till the thing is parallel to Cuba


Can we clean this up here? Btw, storm looks ridiculously impressive right now. Pressure must be dropping, shear is lowering, SST's going up, dry air is lessening, Here we go!

Stairstepping North also perhaps? North of Jamaica still possible? It's a good day to be watching Ernesto glad I stepped out yesterday where we learned nothing

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032110
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120803
210130 1554N 06514W 5446 05207 0269 -012 -072 070020 021 020 002 00
210200 1552N 06515W 5618 04957 0075 +004 -060 068022 022 018 001 00
210230 1550N 06517W 5796 04706 0075 +019 -051 067021 022 018 001 00
210300 1549N 06518W 5860 04590 0055 +021 -042 070021 022 019 000 03
210330 1547N 06519W 5691 04824 0035 +012 -040 075019 020 020 000 03
210400 1546N 06521W 5586 04982 0044 -001 -040 062023 024 021 000 03
210430 1544N 06522W 5466 05145 0236 -015 -042 067026 026 /// /// 03
210500 1542N 06523W 5307 05375 0255 -029 -046 067024 026 018 001 00
210530 1541N 06525W 5345 05350 0272 -025 -053 056021 024 018 001 00
210600 1539N 06526W 5506 05118 0086 -012 -055 073023 024 018 001 00
210630 1537N 06527W 5671 04883 0086 +004 -052 068024 025 016 000 00
210700 1536N 06529W 5845 04631 0087 +014 -047 067025 026 017 000 00
210730 1534N 06530W 6036 04378 0103 +024 -039 067029 030 022 005 00
210800 1532N 06532W 6241 04107 0108 +039 -032 055033 035 025 003 00
210830 1531N 06533W 6456 03819 0117 +049 -024 049032 034 027 001 03
210900 1529N 06534W 6629 03606 0124 +055 -017 050028 029 /// /// 03
210930 1528N 06533W 6787 03409 0116 +071 -010 041028 029 024 003 00
211000 1526N 06531W 6946 03217 0134 +071 -004 045024 029 023 005 00
211030 1525N 06530W 7102 03065 0146 +097 +001 044022 022 021 002 00
211100 1524N 06528W 7286 02876 0177 +107 +007 053022 023 016 000 00
$$
;