ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

[Houstonia]

Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

edited to shorten:

...Forecast for the weekend is fairly summer like with highs in the 90’s and lows in the upper 70’s as the area comes back under the influence of the Gulf air mass. Afternoon thunderstorms on the seabreeze will be possible.

Into next week, will need to keep at least one eye on the track of Isaac as ECMWF model is fairly far to the left and would bring impacts this way, while the GFS and other global guidance keep the system over FL/east Gulf/west Atlantic. GFS has been performing very well this season in the tropics so hard to go against its thinking, but the ECMWF has been the best model over the past few years.

[HurricaneBrain]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

How far west are you thinking? GFS or Euro's current solution?

[psyclone]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

You still thinking panhandle? that seems reasonable based on current trends.

[Aric Dunn]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

it is possible. southern one is still weaker atm though. it is however imbedded in the convection.

[tropicwatch]

Off Topic

Anbody else have trouble connecting with the NHC website?

[wxwatcher1999]

My thinking is if Isaac gets as far west and shoots the yucatan channel the western gulf coast will be in play for landfall

[tgenius]

The old adage of weak, unorganized keeping west versus stronger moving poleword looks like it may be holding true again. At the rate it's going we may not even get rain in Miami from this.. pretty crazy.

[Bocadude85]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

Good news for those of us in S.Fla then.

[ROCK]

The old adage of weak, unorganized keeping west versus stronger moving poleword looks like it may be holding true again. At the rate it's going we may not even get rain in Miami from this.. pretty crazy.

thats why you follow the cone and not the line....

[adam0983]

Why is everything based on the Euro. When all the other models show the Storm near Florida.

[jabman98]

The old adage of weak, unorganized keeping west versus stronger moving poleword looks like it may be holding true again. At the rate it's going we may not even get rain in Miami from this.. pretty crazy.

May prove the old theory that the safest place to be five days out is in the cone.

I'm not very happy about a continuing westward track. Ugh. Just what we need.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks to me like center reformation is a real possibility. It looks to me now that the main rotation center is trying to set up right around 15N 60W, which is consistent with what wxman57 said. On top of that shear looks like its definitely in the process of backing off, as outflow really appears to improving in my opinion. Dry air still seems present but looks to be mixing its way out atm.

[deltadog03]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

100% Agreed!

[Aric Dunn]

Why is everything based on the Euro. When all the other models show the Storm near Florida.

its not. its just one model but it typically does better than most of the models besides the gfs. the two heavy weights are the euro and gfs.

[wxwatcher1999]

Does anyone think the Nhc will move the forecasted track more to the left at the next update?

[Aric Dunn]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

100% Agreed!

check out the wind direction from recon as its heading north on the east side of both circs. ... it appears to quickly be changing in favor of the southern vort.

[ROCK]

man its got some issues right now...2 vorts....if this does reform further south you can just about throw all the current model runs in the trash can....well except for the EURO...

[Wx_Warrior]

Why is everything based on the Euro. When all the other models show the Storm near Florida.

No one said that. It's the model that just ran, so it's the model we are discussing.

[wxwatcher1999]

man its got some issues right now...2 vorts....if this does reform further south you can just about throw all the current model runs in the trash can....well except for the EURO...

If the center does reform south would that cause a more westerly movement?