ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeminoleWind]

Question, isn't a center relocation usually followed by strengthening most times, if so wouldnt that make it more likely to feel the weakness more if it were to strengthen, Thanks.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

If there is a break in the ridge, then why would 0.5 of latitude due to a center relocation make much of a difference? It would still follow the weakness regardless right? I guess not. Someone please explain to me why that would send it farther west. The only reason I could think of is because then it may not feel the weakness as much?

[Hurricaneman]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

100% Agreed!

check out the wind direction from recon as its heading north on the east side of both circs. ... it appears to quickly be changing in favor of the southern vort.

Something like that could be huge in the long run

If it stays with the northern low it would probably plow into the islands and be weak and head up the west coast of Florida as a high end tropical storm to cat 1 hurricane

If it goes to the southern low, it may allow for intensification and probably over central Cuba and up the west coast of Florida as a possible major hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

100% Agreed!

check out the wind direction from recon as its heading north on the east side of both circs. ... it appears to quickly be changing in favor of the southern vort.

That is where the most vorticity is according to CIMSS analysis, and makes more sense based off the banding pattern seen on satellite. This center relocation may help the system to quickly get its act together. (Just my opinion)

[KWT]

Yeah a center relocationm has always been possible, to be fair the northern vortex has done well for a while considering its been battered by shear.

IF it is relocating, thats going to throw a HUGE spanner in the works when it comes to track, it makes the missing Hispaniola solution FAR more likely...

[KWT]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

If there is a break in the ridge, then why would 0.5 of latitude due to a center relocation make much of a difference? It would still follow the weakness regardless right? I guess not. Someone please explain to me why that would send it farther west. The only reason I could think of is because then it may not feel the weakness as much?

No because if it further south it won't 'feel' the weakness as much, esp if it is weaker and less organised which means it gets further west. End game maybe the same but that 0.5 makes the difference between it decaying over Hispaniola, and it heading south and keeping going.

Small difference have large impacts in this sort of set-up, its not like out in the open Atlantic where 1-2 degrees east or west doesn't mean a huge amount.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah a center relocationm has always been possible, to be fair the northern vortex has done well for a while considering its been battered by shear.

IF it is relocating, thats going to throw a HUGE spanner in the works when it comes to track, it makes the missing Hispaniola solution FAR more likely...

no it shouldn't do much. remember the two are going to be rotatin around each other and the southern vort where it is will rotate north westerly it should even its selft out if the center reforming is what indeed is happening

[canes04]

Agree with you South Dade. This is not going getting past 83.

[SouthDadeFish]

Bardados radar appears to be showing the southern vortex taking over:

[ozonepete]

Yeah a center relocationm has always been possible, to be fair the northern vortex has done well for a while considering its been battered by shear.

IF it is relocating, thats going to throw a HUGE spanner in the works when it comes to track, it makes the missing Hispaniola solution FAR more likely...

no it shouldn't do much. remember the two are going to be rotatin around each other and the southern vort where it is will rotate north westerly it should even its selft out if the center reforming is what indeed is happening

That's exactly what I see. The southern center is moving northwest and strengthening while the northern one is moving west to southwest and dissipating. The net result will be little, probably .1 to .3 south of where it was earlier today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

If the center is up at 16.1N then this thing is bad tilted and sick.

[tailgater]

Center relocation/reformation farther south not out of the realm of possibility. West of Florida track looking more likely. My gut may be right.

100% Agreed!

check out the wind direction from recon as its heading north on the east side of both circs. ... it appears to quickly be changing in favor of the southern vort.

Yeah due east winds due east of the 1st VDM on this mission, could be any number of vorties spinning around a main one or relocation.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone think the Nhc will move the forecasted track more to the left at the next update?

I think they keep it the same for consistency, we really dont even have a true center..nhc doesnt move on their tracks nearly as fast as we do here, track change every 10 mins is really not in their playbook

[wxman57]

Recon has flown through the NW, SE and now NE quads with nothing near TS force winds found (surface). I doubt there are any in the SW quad where the weaker winds are indicated by island obs. Isaac appears to be a TD, though the NHC would never downgrade a storm approaching land. Of course, it's possible that there may be an isolated patch of TS winds somewhere in the NE quadrant, which would be the case in just about any area of squalls in the tropics.

[KWT]

That's exactly what I see. The southern center is moving northwest and strengthening while the northern one is moving west to southwest and dissipating. The net result will be little, probably .1 to .3 south of where it was earlier today.
.

The thing you need to remember is even 0.2-0.3 difference is big for this things future, that might be the difference between going over a 6,000ft mountion and it staying over water if the track remains broadly the same. I know it'll swing round somewhat, but these sorts of systems tend to relocate several times when sheared like this.

If it is the case, don't be surprised if its a constant tug effect, like Debby until the shear finally eases up.

[ROCK]

I think you can see some of this in the last EURO run....up to about 72hrs....competing centers....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


just more credence to the EURO solution, IMO....

[ozonepete]

"That's exactly what I see. The southern center is moving northwest and strengthening while the northern one is moving west to southwest and dissipating. The net result will be little, probably .1 to .3 south of where it was earlier today."

I'll amend that - could be as much as .5 south of where they thought, and go over Dominica instead of Guadaloupe. Doesn't seem like center will consolidate for another few hours at least though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormlover2012]

This thing looks horrible on satellite, all storms have struggled this yr getting into Carrib

[uhvjaguars22]

maybe go back to my first post honduras

[SeminoleWind]

Not as good looking as a few hours ago but still not to bad looking and trying to wrap back up again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif