ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm not too sure CZ, I can only give ya my opinion. Ernesto seemed to have been battling a duel where he was essentially ganged upon by some strong shear along it's north side and dry air. His environment currently is only going to improve, if he takes advantage he's going to strengthen.


I recall a storm a few years back in an El Nino season, I believe Chris, which kinda seemed familiar. If you recall the storm your a vet around here, the war about GOM or towards Eastern Seaboard started again, models were split on the solutions. Chris then blossomed a CDO, but started stairstepping North and was Guillotined by a TUTT and lost. I recall quite a few of us wondered what would have happened had he made it to the Caribbean, I think I am seeing personally a similar analog.


Just an opinion, not a forecast.

it was Chris and was beheaded by some mid level shear that was not forecasted....

Wasn't that one hilarious ROCK? Every night there was a he is/isn't gonna make it


What's your thoughts on intensification currently?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032140
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120803
213130 1439N 06443W 8433 01566 0097 +178 +093 062027 028 030 000 00
213200 1437N 06442W 8428 01570 0094 +179 +093 066026 028 031 000 00
213230 1435N 06441W 8436 01564 0096 +176 +094 072027 028 030 001 03
213300 1434N 06440W 8425 01571 0093 +180 +095 074026 027 030 000 00
213330 1433N 06439W 8436 01561 0094 +179 +095 073026 027 031 001 00
213400 1431N 06438W 8433 01565 0096 +174 +095 073027 027 031 001 00
213430 1430N 06437W 8436 01562 0096 +175 +095 074027 027 031 001 00
213500 1429N 06437W 8428 01572 0097 +174 +095 074026 027 031 000 00
213530 1427N 06436W 8425 01572 0096 +174 +095 068028 030 031 001 00
213600 1426N 06435W 8432 01566 0095 +175 +095 070028 029 031 001 00
213630 1424N 06434W 8433 01565 0095 +175 +096 068028 028 032 001 00
213700 1423N 06433W 8431 01564 0095 +175 +096 068028 028 033 000 00
213730 1422N 06432W 8427 01567 0094 +172 +096 068027 028 032 001 00
213800 1420N 06432W 8430 01562 0094 +170 +095 072026 027 032 000 00
213830 1419N 06431W 8434 01557 0095 +168 +094 081030 031 035 004 00
213900 1418N 06430W 8433 01560 0097 +166 +093 078030 031 033 006 00
213930 1416N 06429W 8431 01564 0090 +180 +093 074031 031 033 002 00
214000 1415N 06428W 8437 01557 0087 +181 +094 076031 031 031 002 00
214030 1413N 06427W 8425 01566 0087 +180 +097 077031 032 031 001 00
214100 1412N 06427W 8436 01554 0084 +181 +099 078030 032 031 000 00
$$
;

[stormhunter7]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/animvis.html Ernesto is looking good for a system moving over 20mph!

[Stormlover2012]

its growing!! no doubt about it

[Gustywind]

Very nice rainshowers are abatting on Guadeloupe since 3 pm. Meteo-France backoff the level of alert, as we're on Yellow Alert due to Ernesto... who continues to move away steadily from the Eastern Carib.

[MiamiensisWx]

Microwave looks mighty impressive.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.65pc.jpg

The convective band on the west side of the center is the most marked difference between the current structure and that of the past two days...and is indeed a clear signal, corroborated by latest satellite imagery, that low-level dry air has begun to be mixed out, thereby allowing convection to expand westward over the center. Also, latest images seem to suggest that the upper-level anticyclone over Ernesto is negating the remaining shear somewhat, so I respectfully part ways with wxman57 as to the organizational trends.

Note: this is unofficial...as are most posts here, even those by meteorologists (at least those who do not work for NOAA). Always refer to the NHC as the official source.

[Evil Jeremy]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032150
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 10 20120803
214130 1411N 06426W 8432 01559 0084 +180 +100 076031 032 031 001 00
214200 1409N 06425W 8426 01561 0080 +180 +101 077030 030 033 001 00
214230 1408N 06424W 8433 01556 0081 +181 +101 077031 033 033 000 00
214300 1407N 06423W 8420 01567 0085 +171 +101 072033 035 034 003 00
214330 1405N 06423W 8434 01550 0080 +173 +099 070032 032 035 002 00
214400 1404N 06422W 8430 01551 0076 +179 +098 072031 032 035 001 00
214430 1403N 06421W 8435 01545 0073 +180 +099 073032 033 035 003 00
214500 1401N 06420W 8427 01555 0073 +179 +100 068032 033 036 004 00
214530 1401N 06420W 8427 01555 0067 +179 +100 066033 034 035 000 00
214600 1358N 06419W 8434 01538 0060 +185 +101 068032 033 035 001 00
214630 1357N 06418W 8430 01540 0058 +186 +102 068029 031 037 003 00
214700 1356N 06417W 8433 01533 0053 +189 +103 076030 031 038 000 00
214730 1354N 06416W 8430 01533 0047 +192 +104 076028 031 039 003 00
214800 1353N 06415W 8437 01523 0040 +196 +105 083023 026 038 000 00
214830 1352N 06414W 8428 01529 0038 +196 +106 102018 021 035 003 00
214900 1350N 06414W 8433 01525 0039 +195 +108 126013 016 032 001 00
214930 1349N 06413W 8429 01532 0044 +193 +109 154012 012 027 002 00
215000 1348N 06411W 8434 01527 0044 +191 +109 161013 014 024 000 00
215030 1347N 06410W 8429 01533 0047 +188 +109 161012 014 023 000 00
215100 1345N 06409W 8438 01527 0052 +185 +109 162011 012 023 000 00
$$
;

Pressure 1004mb.

[ROCK]

I'm not too sure CZ, I can only give ya my opinion. Ernesto seemed to have been battling a duel where he was essentially ganged upon by some strong shear along it's north side and dry air. His environment currently is only going to improve, if he takes advantage he's going to strengthen.


I recall a storm a few years back in an El Nino season, I believe Chris, which kinda seemed familiar. If you recall the storm your a vet around here, the war about GOM or towards Eastern Seaboard started again, models were split on the solutions. Chris then blossomed a CDO, but started stairstepping North and was Guillotined by a TUTT and lost. I recall quite a few of us wondered what would have happened had he made it to the Caribbean, I think I am seeing personally a similar analog.


Just an opinion, not a forecast.

it was Chris and was beheaded by some mid level shear that was not forecasted....

Wasn't that one hilarious ROCK? Every night there was a he is/isn't gonna make it


What's your thoughts on intensification currently?

IMO, its going to intensify and I think it will be more rapidly than we think.....of course this is just my opinion. You got a slowing down storm, over the hottest ssts in the basin (besides the GOM), no shear to speak of....if it doesnt intensify it will fly in the face of all that we have come to learn ....

Just an opinion, not a forecast

[SunnyThoughts]

IF and when he starts to slow down a good bit, I'm afraid the strengthening will be more than anyone wants to see considering the low shear and the hot sst's. Just my opinion of course and not a forecast.

[Sanibel]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This thing is re-firing in the dead zone. I think we can cross-off open wave and dissipation...

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

Thanks Jeremy for picking up this evenings mission...got tied up all of a sudden wth some things here at the house...I'll be available in about 30 mins or so.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032200
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120803
215130 1344N 06408W 8425 01540 0053 +181 +109 168014 015 023 001 00
215200 1343N 06407W 8433 01538 0059 +180 +108 165013 015 024 001 00
215230 1342N 06406W 8429 01544 0062 +177 +106 164013 014 025 003 00
215300 1341N 06405W 8430 01539 0061 +180 +104 168010 012 027 007 00
215330 1340N 06404W 8426 01549 0074 +167 +102 163007 009 038 015 03
215400 1338N 06403W 8421 01554 0083 +155 +099 164012 016 046 059 00
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00
215700 1331N 06357W 8437 01538 0077 +166 +081 146019 020 046 008 00
215730 1330N 06356W 8432 01545 0069 +180 +080 169020 021 041 009 00
215800 1329N 06356W 8434 01543 0070 +181 +082 181023 028 035 002 00
215830 1328N 06355W 8430 01546 0073 +176 +084 192030 031 030 004 00
215900 1327N 06354W 8436 01542 0087 +156 +085 192025 029 029 000 00
215930 1325N 06353W 8418 01563 0087 +160 +083 199022 025 028 005 00
220000 1324N 06352W 8442 01542 0087 +166 +080 203021 023 029 003 00
220030 1323N 06351W 8416 01572 0096 +159 +080 212020 022 026 001 00
220100 1322N 06349W 8429 01555 0094 +161 +080 206018 019 025 003 00
$$
;

46 kt SFMR (higher ones in very heavy rain)

[cycloneye]

Did they missed the center or not?

[cycloneye]

Is this clean data?

062 at flight level 054 on smfr 00

062 054 00

[CrazyC83]

Did they missed the center or not?

Not sure? It is possible it may have relocated.

[Kingarabian]

I want to help out with missions since I live in a completely different time zone then most people here and give you guys a break.

But I will need some kind of training or a link to a tutorial or something.

[CrazyC83]

Is this clean data?

062 at flight level 054 on smfr 00

That is 62 kt SFMR with 54 mm/hour of rain, so best to ignore it due to rain contamination.