ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[PTrackerLA]

More impressive convection than I've seen thus far with Ernesto right now. If this continues through this evening things could get really interesting.

[AHS2011]

is that an eye-like feature starting to develop? correct me if i'm wrong, but it sure looks like it.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Is this clean data?

062 at flight level 054 on smfr 00

That is 62 kt SFMR with 54 mm/hour of rain, so best to ignore it due to rain contamination.

It's not marked as being Contaminated thought:

215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00

[Hurricaneman]

is that an eye-like feature starting to develop? correct me if i'm wrong, but it sure looks like it.

with pressures in the 1000s this feature you're probably seeing is a dry spot

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[greenkat]

This thing is developing an eyelike gap in the center, certainly heating up on infrared imagery, I think we might have a hurricane sooner than we expected.

[Dave]

There's several together in the 60's range with only one being flagged:

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

All others are clear codes.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032210
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120803
220130 1322N 06348W 8440 01551 0095 +165 +080 192019 020 023 003 00
220200 1322N 06346W 8425 01562 0090 +171 +081 198019 021 022 001 00
220230 1322N 06344W 8433 01556 0089 +175 +083 190020 021 024 000 00
220300 1322N 06342W 8432 01562 0092 +174 +085 173020 021 024 000 00
220330 1323N 06341W 8430 01563 0091 +176 +088 174023 025 023 001 00
220400 1323N 06339W 8430 01568 0092 +181 +089 181026 026 023 001 00
220430 1323N 06337W 8432 01565 0091 +183 +090 187024 025 023 001 00
220500 1323N 06336W 8432 01566 0093 +181 +092 178022 024 022 000 00
220530 1323N 06334W 8430 01567 0093 +182 +093 174023 024 023 000 00
220600 1323N 06332W 8429 01570 0092 +181 +093 171022 023 023 000 00
220630 1323N 06331W 8430 01570 0093 +181 +092 166019 021 024 001 00
220700 1324N 06329W 8431 01566 0092 +182 +092 168018 019 023 000 00
220730 1324N 06327W 8433 01565 0099 +171 +092 165020 020 023 002 00
220800 1324N 06326W 8432 01566 0097 +172 +091 167020 020 023 002 00
220830 1324N 06324W 8430 01568 0100 +170 +090 171019 020 024 000 00
220900 1323N 06322W 8432 01568 0100 +170 +090 174020 020 024 000 00
220930 1323N 06321W 8430 01568 0098 +174 +091 173020 021 023 002 00
221000 1323N 06319W 8429 01570 0096 +176 +092 168021 022 024 001 03
221030 1324N 06318W 8425 01572 0097 +175 +093 160021 021 /// /// 03
221100 1326N 06318W 8436 01563 0102 +168 +094 158021 022 027 001 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

you start seeing those really cold tops (Black) you know its fully found its way to the surface and the engine has started. Just when it went over that pool of extremely high heat content...That was the spark IMO....

[ROCK]

there is no eye wall so to speak so no eye...yet!!....

[bella_may]

recon just reported pressure down to 1004 mb

[JamesCaneTracker]

is that an eye-like feature starting to develop? correct me if i'm wrong, but it sure looks like it.

lol And you get the prize for the first mention of an eye like feature...

No that isn't, based on Recon data the center is under the deep convection.

[Florida1118]

recon just reported pressure down to 1004 mb

As of 5pm, the NHC had the pressure at 1002mb.

[Blown Away]

Gotta love these forecasts, the NHC's old reliables the GFS/Euro want to bury a weak system into CA. I love when they are forced to go against the grain a little. You know they look at these consistent GFS/Euro runs and wonder how can we go against them, but they are, that's forecasting old school.

[Hurricaneman]

recon just reported pressure down to 1004 mb

looking at the wind barbs where that was recorded, it looks like recon missed to the east of the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[bg1]

There's several together in the 60's range with only one being flagged:

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

All others are clear codes.

I'm confused. If those 60 readings are SFMR, then what's the FL winds? I thought they were to the left, but they look too low.

[bella_may]

recon just reported pressure down to 1004 mb

As of 5pm, the NHC had the pressure at 1002mb.

really? this thing is definitely forming faster than expected if that's the case.

[Evil Jeremy]

[cycloneye]

From the recon folks posting the data in that thread is this important info about very strong winds found. Only one of these is not clean. Winds in the low 60's.

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

[Mouton]

I think till Ernesto gets below Jamaca, we are not going to have a good handle on the future of this storm. If it is a deeping storm, perhaps a Cat 1, at that point, it should begin a poleward move. I don't see much anywhere to the northwest which is going to move this along anytime soon once it gets there so I do not look for a rapid run to the north. So, given the SSTs and lack of inhibiting factors, this one could go vertical. Given this senario, I'd look for an Ike like track.

If it remains a mid tropical storm south of Jamaca moving west at say 15kts or so, I expect it to not develop and move into the area south of Yucatan.

My concepts have no basis in any fact beyond my imagination so no one should rely upon my comments as they are not an official pronouncement.