ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[lester]

From the recon folks posting the data in that thread is this important info about very strong winds found. Only one of these is not clean. Winds in the low 60's.

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

those are rain-contaminated, probably should ignore those

[JPmia]

What's interesting about these latest developments with Ernesto is that right about now for the past few days he would begin his usual weakening, but the reports we're seeing this evening are the opposite.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032220
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 13 20120803
221130 1328N 06318W 8425 01577 0107 +165 +093 157023 025 028 002 00
221200 1329N 06318W 8433 01560 0095 +172 +091 149024 025 028 003 00
221230 1331N 06318W 8430 01560 0087 +175 +091 151024 025 028 000 00
221300 1333N 06318W 8432 01562 0090 +175 +090 151025 026 030 000 03
221330 1335N 06318W 8430 01567 0096 +174 +091 155027 027 031 000 00
221400 1337N 06318W 8434 01563 0098 +175 +091 157027 027 029 001 00
221430 1339N 06318W 8430 01570 0099 +175 +093 155026 027 030 000 00
221500 1341N 06318W 8429 01571 0100 +171 +093 155024 025 029 000 00
221530 1342N 06318W 8429 01567 0098 +171 +094 157025 025 029 000 00
221600 1344N 06318W 8433 01562 0100 +168 +095 154025 025 029 000 00
221630 1346N 06318W 8430 01565 0098 +167 +094 154026 027 030 001 00
221700 1348N 06318W 8429 01567 0098 +169 +093 155028 028 030 000 00
221730 1350N 06318W 8429 01566 0097 +170 +093 154029 030 031 000 00
221800 1352N 06318W 8434 01562 0098 +170 +094 152028 030 031 000 00
221830 1354N 06318W 8426 01572 0099 +169 +095 144029 030 032 000 00
221900 1355N 06318W 8432 01566 0098 +171 +096 143032 033 031 002 00
221930 1355N 06318W 8432 01566 0099 +169 +096 138034 036 033 000 00
222000 1359N 06318W 8430 01570 0103 +165 +095 137035 036 033 000 00
222030 1400N 06318W 8428 01572 0101 +169 +095 136035 036 031 001 00
222100 1402N 06318W 8429 01568 0098 +172 +095 139032 034 031 001 00
$$
;

[lester]

There's several together in the 60's range with only one being flagged:

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

All others are clear codes.

I'm confused. If those 60 readings are SFMR, then what's the FL winds? I thought they were to the left, but they look too low.

the FL winds are to the left

[Hammy]

outflow seems to be developing as well as I'm beginning to see the high cloud elements to the west moving along with or away from the storm on the latest satellite loop

[Stormlover2012]

will u post floater please, for some reason floater isn't working for me maybe I can click on ur link and it will work for me who knows

[Evil Jeremy]

[wxman57]

Gotta love these forecasts, the NHC's old reliables the GFS/Euro want to bury a weak system into CA. I love when they are forced to go against the grain a little. You know they look at these consistent GFS/Euro runs and wonder how can we go against them, but they are, that's forecasting old school.

Looks, to me, like they are taking them into consideration by not driving Ernesto through the Yucatan Channel. Instead, their track remains west of all guidance except for the GFS/Euro. Not a bad choice for now. Circulation does look improved over this morning, but that wouldn't be hard. 90L looked a lot better than Ernesto most of today. Looked good yesterday for a while, too. Not ready to discount the GFS, either.

[Nimbus]

Still managing a fair amount of convection considering the fast forward speed so scratch the open wave idea. Really nothing to stop it from becoming a major if it slows down in the western Caribbean under the current forecast.

Looks like landfall somewhere along the northern gulf at the moment. Even if a strong ridge causes Ernesto to stall and meander west for a while the next weakness that drops down into the southeast is likely to start it moving N or NE.

[Hammy]

will u post floater please, for some reason floater isn't working for me maybe I can click on ur link and it will work for me who knows

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html most visible if sped up

[greenkat]

Wow... Central America, Yucatan, Jamaica You guys better be on the lookout.

[Dave]

They are low let's see what the next pass has.

[Evil Jeremy]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032230
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 14 20120803
222130 1404N 06318W 8429 01571 0098 +172 +096 139032 032 030 000 00
222200 1406N 06318W 8433 01568 0101 +169 +096 138033 034 030 000 00
222230 1408N 06318W 8430 01571 0103 +169 +095 134034 035 029 001 00
222300 1409N 06318W 8428 01571 0104 +164 +095 132038 040 030 001 00
222330 1411N 06318W 8437 01562 0103 +166 +094 128038 040 028 002 00
222400 1413N 06318W 8428 01573 0102 +169 +094 129040 041 030 001 00
222430 1413N 06318W 8428 01573 0102 +171 +094 129040 041 031 000 00
222500 1413N 06318W 8428 01573 0102 +170 +094 128040 040 030 001 00
222530 1418N 06318W 8424 01574 0101 +170 +095 127040 040 030 000 00
222600 1420N 06318W 8438 01562 0100 +171 +095 124040 040 032 000 00
222630 1420N 06318W 8438 01562 0104 +168 +096 122040 040 031 000 00
222700 1423N 06318W 8424 01577 0101 +170 +096 121039 039 030 000 00
222730 1425N 06318W 8431 01570 0102 +169 +096 123039 040 032 003 00
222800 1426N 06318W 8435 01567 0104 +167 +095 126039 041 032 002 00
222830 1428N 06318W 8425 01576 0100 +173 +094 124038 039 031 001 00
222900 1430N 06318W 8432 01568 0101 +173 +095 123038 038 031 001 00
222930 1432N 06318W 8435 01566 0099 +177 +095 122038 039 032 000 00
223000 1433N 06318W 8426 01574 0097 +178 +095 120038 039 033 000 00
223030 1435N 06318W 8426 01573 0099 +176 +096 122039 039 033 000 00
223100 1437N 06318W 8436 01567 0103 +172 +096 122039 040 033 001 00
$$
;

[Cyclenall]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This thing is re-firing in the dead zone. I think we can cross-off open wave and dissipation...

I crossed that off a long time ago. The main concern is how fast it is/was moving and I would like to see it go a bit more wnw. Why is this still 45 knots anyways? It was suppose to strengthen last night.

you start seeing those really cold tops (Black) you know its fully found its way to the surface and the engine has started. Just when it went over that pool of extremely high heat content...That was the spark IMO....

Hot Towers really firing off but will the convection consolidate and stay? I was puzzled at its appearance this afternoon, no CDO.

From the recon folks posting the data in that thread is this important info about very strong winds found. Only one of these is not clean. Winds in the low 60's.

215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

Wow, this Ernesto always has higher winds then I would expect. The pressure seems high for those winds which might mean its a very tight system (tiny). I didn't check the windfield yet today. Only 1 is rain-contaminated BTW.

What's interesting about these latest developments with Ernesto is that right about now for the past few days he would begin his usual weakening, but the reports we're seeing this evening are the opposite.

Don't you mean overnight/late morning?

[cycloneye]

The best it has looked ever.

[wxman57]

SFMR winds 2-3 times the FL winds looks quite unrealistic. There just isn't that kind of a pressure gradient yet.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

worst case scenerio is 91l opens up a hole in the ridge, drives Ernesto north through the western tip of Cuba, and Landfalls in Tampa getting picked up by the trough similar to a 2004 Bonnie-Charley situation. I dont think this is going to happen because no model has this happen, but it cant be left off the table yet

[CrazyC83]

With a training mission also going on, I have to go into archives now.

[Dave]

RECON TUTORIAL:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603