ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

Wake me when if it gets to 75W the low level structure looks bad while the mid and upper levels are pretty decent kinda like Ernesto

[KWT]

I don't think the NHC will drop it from a TS on the next advisory, but
I do think they will once again lower the forecasted strength. Perhaps
keeping it from mid end to high end tropical storm at best. That seems
to be the trend as well....

The NE quadrant found 40-43kts, its probably enough to justify keeping it a TS, though the center is a mess at the moment and not in a good way, looks like we have vortexes fighting for pole position.

[Aric Dunn]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

[adam0983]

From Central Florida Hurrican Center Senior Storm Chaser Louis Cane

There was talk yesterday that recon had found multiple vortexes... or a displaced center.. and that would explain why it has taken so long for Isaac to pull it together.

On the other hand... Isaac is a very large area of weather and it's common for two centers ...sometimes three... to compete. I have a paper somewhere by Partagas who writes on the formation of I believe Betsy but might have been Cleo how two centers were tracked for a while.. and it's only after the one center took over the storm took off and intensified. I can dig it out...

Point... this is common in both weak tropical storms and large tropical storms.

I'm hoping the information the Gulfstream jet obtains will give us a better picture down the road.

Because....the bigger problem is down the road.

[Shuriken]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

One degree of latitude makes a HUGE difference with five more days of spread when the aim-point is the top of Florida. One the one hand, you get a cat-1 David-hits-Miami analog; on the other you get a Frederic or worse that has the whole extent of the Gulf to splash around in.

[Wx_Warrior]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

Bingo. I think this is a misconception with many.

[Weatherfreak000]

Regardless the EURO shows it occurring, so you can argue it adds some validity to its track, IMO.

[Stormlover2012]

Relocation makes a difference, when debby relocated north then the models all came together so yes it makes a diference

[jlauderdal]

NCEP asking for balloon launches every 6 hours starting Thursday from NWS WFOs in FL, GA, MS, & AL to help models with Isaac

http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

hmm..someone predicted yesterday that would be the case, if only my hurricane tracks were that good

[KWT]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

Bingo. I think this is a misconception with many.

It all depends on the relative strength of the lows. It will lift up but as to how much depends on the speed of the relocation. I've rarely seen a relocated low end up in the same place as the previous place...in fact I've never seen it, they always end up a touch away from where the center previously was.

[Hurricane Andrew]

P3 out now.

[Weatherboy1]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

Bingo. I think this is a misconception with many.

Yes, I agree that this far out, a 0.5 or even 1 degree change in location wouldn't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. What's most important is whether one of these vortices can become dominant, hold that dominance, and then really crank up the intensifcation effort. Hasn't happened yet, but I have a sinking suspicion we're going to wake up tomorrow to a system that has finally gotten its act together on that front. My opinion as an amateur, as always!

[ozonepete]

it has clearly re located to the se ( well not fully yet still two vorts). but will rotate to just about the same position as the forecast later this evening. wont change the models much if at all.

One degree of latitude makes a HUGE difference with five more days of spread when the aim-point is the top of Florida. One the one hand, you get a cat-1 David-hits-Miami analog; on the other you get a Frederic or worse that has the whole extent of the Gulf to splash around in.

1 degree is not huge at all. This has occurred many times with other TCs and the models didn't change radically. Often they don't change much at all, especially the big models and the consensus. Remember the best resolution is about .5 degree anyway for the GFS and Euro among others.

[Aric Dunn]

Regardless the EURO shows it occurring, so you can argue it adds some validity to its track, IMO.

neither the euro or gfs can resolve such a detailed inner core change.

[Aric Dunn]

latest from recon the northern vort has dropped wsw and pressure up to 1005mb and winds near the vort are very light 5 to 15 kts. seems the southern vort maybe taking over. just have to wait and see what recon finds over there.

[Stormlover2012]

and if thats the case the forecast will prob be nudge left

[sandyb]

I can not explain it like one of our local mets have done her in eastern NC but he has posted on FB that he thinks it will make land fall somewhere between Charleston SC and Myrtle Beach SC. He believes the models will come back eastward. I do have to give him credit for last years prediction on Irene he kept telling us it was coming here even when everyone else was saying no and it did. I read his post on fb and just now he was on tv still saying some of the models are bringing it up the east coast. Can anyone else see what he might me seeing? Something about the winds coming across the gulf from west to east sorry I don't have more info on what his saying and don't know that I can post a post from FB.

[adam0983]

Wow this storm is everywhere.

[CourierPR]

and if thats the case the forecast will prob be nudge left

On what do you base that statement?

[Shuriken]

Yes, I agree that this far out, a 0.5 or even 1 degree change in location wouldn't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

Given that such a small difference represents either two days over land running up the spine of Florida, or two days running up either the Gulf Stream or the Gulf of Mexico on either side, a minor initialization wobble like this eventually becomes a HUGE difference in the grand scheme of things.

E.g., "Butterfly Effect".