ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing that Ernie may run into in the next 12hrs or so is a UL PV anomaly directly ahead of his track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

If it interacts with Ernie's LLC, it could push down on his vorticity column and keep him from spinning up fast.

Something to keep an eye on.

What would be the chances of that? Saw it earlier.

looks interesting, but it seems like it would merely be putting off the inevitable unless it were to completely squash ernesto. whether its tomorrow or in a couple days, its seeming more and more likely that ernesto is gonna be gaining a good amount of strength in the next 5 days. How much, I won't even pretend to guess at, but with the improved appearance and structure we've seen today, my opinion is its on its way.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think it is safe to say Ernesto is stronger than 50 mph at this time. If everything continues to work in its favor, this may become a hurricane much earlier than forecast...as in tomorrow.

[Rgv20]

IMO the 12zECMWF is overdoing the trough especially at 168hrs...There is going to be a weakness but I dont think is going to be strong enough to send Ernesto due North as the ridge should be able to rebuild back and bend the track back W/WNW.

[WeatherGuesser]

What's the confidence on this thing getting into the Gulf and spinning up to something dangerous?

[wxman57]

Satellite does show Ernesto throwing out outflow boundaries from the SW to the north. Generally not a good sign of strengthening.

[jinftl]

Way too soon to say...something to keep an eye on for sure but when you are talking that it may not approach the Yucatan to late Wednesday, the margin of error beyond that is so great it would be impossible to say. No question at all this deserves attention and monitoring...but the reality is, this time next Friday evening we still may be speculating where he will go.

What's the confidence on this thing getting into the Gulf and spinning up to something dangerous?

[Ivanhater]

Like night and day

[floridasun78]

could 91l cause wakness of high if Ernesto get stronger earlier and expect could it turn sooner because of weakness???

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto has intensified.

03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic

[GCANE]

ULL over the Yucatan Channel and another at 29N 46W.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

Both setting up an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Should continue as Ernie tracks across the Carib.

The one on the GOM is forecast to move west.

[floridasun78]

Ernesto has intensified.

03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic

what wind speed their reporting?

[Ivanhater]

No sign of the ridge building back in on the Euro and if Ernesto has already turned north the ridge to its west might block any westward progression. We will see, but as of now if Ernesto is a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, it looks like a high probability it will turn north into the Gulf

[TheBurn]

23:45 UTC Funktop

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto probably a 60/65mph TS
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

I just don't believe those SFMR winds - more than TWICE or even THREE TIMES the FL winds?? The plane didn't seem to find the center, it looks like the center was farther west. I'd believe pockets of 40 maybe 45 kt winds but generally winds less than that. Convection is flaring up fairly well now, though.

Rain contaminated?

[GCANE]

Rain rate dropping - hot tower maybe coming to an end.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg

Should see some strong CDO building in the next few hours.

[wxman57]

Ernesto probably a 60/65mph TS
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

I just don't believe those SFMR winds - more than TWICE or even THREE TIMES the FL winds?? The plane didn't seem to find the center, it looks like the center was farther west. I'd believe pockets of 40 maybe 45 kt winds but generally winds less than that. Convection is flaring up fairly well now, though.

Rain influenced?

I wonder about the calibration of the instruments. They fly over buoys in clear weather to calibrate them, I believe. But they rarely find clear weather when flying through a TC. Could be the rain is affecting the readings more than they're thinking. Would like to see some dropsondes to verify the SFMR readings. Too bad the plane appears to have had an issue. Maybe they can get another out there tonight.

[Cyclenall]

May have ran into extreme turbulence.

I was wondering that too. This really sucks!

once I got a chance to look at what I'd pasted up there they were too low to make any sense. Has to be equipment problems for the reason they returned early tonight....just guessing though on that.

If that's the reason, then I'll be unhappy as some information (pressure, location, etc.) is better than none.

When was the last successful recon mission?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What are we to expect at 11?Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

No change from the 45kts.

AL, 05, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 138N, 648W, 45, 1003, TS

[gatorcane]

As much as we are seeing a ramp up now, I think it really could ramp up once in the northwest Caribbean....Wouldn't surprise me if the nhc ups the intensity forecast as shear looks light there and ssts plenty warm with less land influence. The gfs and ecmwf predictions may be holding them back that is my guess as those reliable models keep Ernesto weak.