ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

A well-respected met on another board posted the following:

"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac.  And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."

Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.

Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:

"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.

I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."

Can you tell us who they are? Are they from Texas?

[Big O]

A well-respected met on another board posted the following:

"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac.  And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."

Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.

Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:

"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.

I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."

Can you tell us who they are? Are they from Texas?

LEK and others. None are from Texas

[KWT]

Hmmm talk of Texasis very premature but I ca see some reasoning behind it, as the person said the steering currents do slacken and if this system was to go more WNW in the short/medium term, it may not quite make the connection and it could well be in a very uncertain steering current.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been over at the model thread catching up on things and just looked at the latest sat loops. Could someone please explain what is going on with Isaac. Looks like the islands are actually cutting him in half.

[bamajammer4eva]

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Joe Bastardi seems to be implying that this storm may be like a past hurricane Gilbert that wound up hitting Mexico back in the 80s. Maybe they thought it would turn north but it never did?

The sprawling cloud mass of Isaac reminds me of Gilbert in formative stages. Indicative of potential of this

Hurricane Gilbert


But then he says he thinks it will go between Charleston and Florida

DGEX takes Isaac to chs, GFS into bite of fla, my track in between two, still Weatherbell post tonight a monster

[KWT]

Hmmm the difference in models from 1980s to now is immense, the models may not get it right all the time, but more often then not they aren't stupidly wrong, though thats not to say that can't happen this time!

Models do seem to be trending westwards touch tonight, ensembles from the GFS seem to have become more spread out tonight which does nothing for confidence!

[Gustywind]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

[CronkPSU]

No JB was implying about its size and strength potential I believe and not the track

[cheezyWXguy]

No JB was implying about its size and strength potential I believe and not the track

Good ole JB...the strength potential to be the second strongest hurricane on record? I dunno about that one...

[HurricaneBrain]

Big O, what forum are you referring to? I'd like to see their discussions.

[KWT]

Low levels of this system is such a mess, several different areas are duking it out to become the central system. Really it would help this system if it lost some of that convective mass and consolidated somewhat more.

[Shuriken]

A well-respected met on another board posted the following:

"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac.  And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."

Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.

Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:

"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.

I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."

Presented for your amusement and/or utter horror, a COMPLETELY UNOFFICIAL EXERCISE IN WHAT-IF:

"Scenario B" (Intensity? ...use your lurid imagination.)

[chargurl]

1: What would skirting the coast mean in mileage estimation should Isaac take that path.
2: Charley(04) seemed to get pulled into Charlotte Harbor, and that area of Florida hooks out farther. Does that "hook and harbor" area cause a shift in direction? I realize storm coming from different coordinates...but will be passing by.

[artist]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

Be sure to let us know how you are doing there, Gusty, my friend!

[Jimsot]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

Gusty, looks like you get to 'enjoy' Isaac twice since he is a two headed storm.

[KWT]

That track you've put up there is mightly close to a certain legendary hurricane, a certain Galveston 1900 hurricane...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

Also rather proves that Hispaniola doesn't always spell a storms doom!

[ozonepete]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

Ok, here we go. Stay safe, gusty.

[Gustywind]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

Be sure to let us know how you are doing there, Gusty, my friend!

Thanks, i will try as possible, looks like a long night maybe busy. Right now, i can tell you that the lightnings are swirling not too far from my area. Thunder is rumbling hopefully not too strong for now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

1: What would skirting the coast mean in mileage estimation should Isaac take that path.
2: Charley(04) seemed to get pulled into Charlotte Harbor, and that area of Florida hooks out farther. Does that "hook and harbor" area cause a shift in direction? I realize storm coming from different coordinates...but will be passing by.

Charley had a low pressure area north of it that caused the east shift. It really had nothing to do with the harbor. Charley was smller system circulation-wise very tight, sso it was also more easily steered as hurricanes go. It could "react quicker"

[Gustywind]

First lightnings east of my area, isolated but becoming more frequent. Light gusts, scattered showers.

Ok, here we go. Stay safe, gusty.

Thanks, hope that the others friends HUC, ouragans Tanguy... will keep your informed about the weather.