ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Just cant get over how massive this circulation really is. One it does decide to get its act together watch out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[alienstorm]

Looks like the center has passed between the Martinque and Domica Channel

[Gustywind]

Report of a tree who has fallen at Capesterre Belle Eau (Guadeloupe). Looks like wind is blowing nicely in this area as Marie-Galante and La Désirade... given the reports of the journalists RCI (Radio Caribbean International). I will keep your informed as possible if i have more.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the Hurricane Hunters are zeroing in on a new center fix. So far lowest pressure 1004.2mb close to 15.7833N 61.9833W.

[vbhoutex]

Hmmm talk of Texasis very premature but I ca see some reasoning behind it, as the person said the steering currents do slacken and if this system was to go more WNW in the short/medium term, it may not quite make the connection and it could well be in a very uncertain steering current.

This is my concern as I see Issac struggling to consolidate. As stated, way to far out to even pick up the chisel to put anything in stone, but the longer Issac stays weaker, the more concern I have for the N Gulf Coast. At this point I don't see Texas in the picture, but as I always say "Never say never in the tropics." My biggest concern right now is a FL panhandle hit near the Destin area where my Mom lives.

[KWT]

1: What would skirting the coast mean in mileage estimation should Isaac take that path.
2: Charley(04) seemed to get pulled into Charlotte Harbor, and that area of Florida hooks out farther. Does that "hook and harbor" area cause a shift in direction? I realize storm coming from different coordinates...but will be passing by.

Charley had a low pressure area north of it that caused the east shift. It really had nothing to do with the harbor. Charley was smller system circulation-wise very tight, sso it was also more easily steered as hurricanes go. It could "react quicker"

It was just sheer luck that meant that Charley went perfectly up the harbour...though I suppose it does make sense that with such a tight circulation it frictional forces helped guide it so perfectly up the harbour.

There seems to be quite a few centers, may well be something trying to get going nearer that Sw cluster of convection, but either way it needs to consolidate at some point soon!

[Shuriken]

My personal analysis of radar:

A: "NW center" ...the old, broad, pre-TD LLC formerly visible two days ago.
B: "SE center" ...surface vortex under eastern convection
C: mid-level center associated with last night's -85C blow-up. Appears to be finally waning.
D: apparent neutral center of system

[crimi481]

Its almost the norm...2 centers rotating around each other
First they fight - then join, t it takes long time. Could be HUGE - if stays over water

[SouthDadeFish]

Very deep convection is rapidly firing and surging westward in the NE quadrant of the storm. Looks like its trying to wrap its way towards whatever center there is:

[BensonTCwatcher]

That much convection has an effect on center formation and where this one "stacks" up.

[Ev1948]

I hope I am not in the wrong place, but I have a question. If Isaac goes up the gulf coast of Florida, how much would that affect the east coast of Florida. Also if Isaac , or any hurricne hit Florida on the west coast, came across to the east, how powerful would it be by the time it hit the east coast or the other way around.

Ev, I'm an amateur, but I can tell you of a couple of instances in recent years of storms that hit on one coast of Florida and had significant impacts on the other coast. Wilma in 2005 was one such storm. It hit on the Gulf Coast and then tracked East. There were serious damages in Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties on the East Coast. Windows in some of the taller buildings in Ft. Lauderdale were blown out, etc.

In 2004, Charley hit as a very small, but intense storm on the west coast, but there was serious damage fairly far away in Orlando too.

Thank you that helps a lot!

Even Irene (TS - Cat 1) in 1999 which came across the state from the West to East coast produced serious flooding on the east coast.

The right side of the storm is usually considered the "dirty side" or strong side of the storm. There can often be tornadoes.

Brian Norcross, a respected FL meteorologist was on the radio in WPB earlier today talking about how even a storm that hits the southern tip of the peninsula or SW Florida could have serious impacts on the East coast cities of Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and W. Palm Beach. A lot depends on the size of the storm and how quickly it travels. And there are different types of damage: wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. The wind and storm surge impact may be higher in one area of the state but the flooding in another part equally devastating...

Hope this helps!

Thank you it helps a lot!

[KBBOCA]

Very deep convection is rapidly firing and surging westward in the NE quadrant of the storm. Looks like its trying to wrap its way towards whatever center there is:

Wow, that convection looks to be firing over land - Dominica I think? Hoping all on the islands are safe!

Silly question perhaps, but with multiple "centers" how is landfall calculated? has this storm officially made landfall on Guadeloupe or one of the other Lesser Antilles?

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear that the convection to the SW is fading and turning more into a banding feature and the center to the NE is becoming more dominant. The question is whether or not it will become the clear dominant center and maintain that.

SFT

[KWT]

Well thats a good convective burst going up over where the old LLC was, wonder if that may help to re-strengthen that weakening circulation over the next few hours.

Can't moan about the convection in the southern quadrants, just needs to expand a little bit more to the north.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[MGC]

Beven states in the 5pm discussion: "There remains considerable uncertainty as to which portion of Florida...if any...could be affected by Isaac."

So, what is Beven saying here? Maybe not Florida? To the east of Florida, to the west of Florida? I think Beven might be in the Euro camp and is opening the door to a westward shift in the track?

Noticed the storm is moving just south of west......Euro?

If a new center reforms in the southern part of the cloud mass that is Isaac, I think that would make a huge difference in the eventual landfall area in 4-5 days from now......thought?........MGC

Of course the opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.

[KWT]

265 degrees as the NHC are still following the old circulation. I think tomorrow morning will tell all.

[RL3AO]

Lets see what it looks like in 7 or 8 hours when the next flight gets there. Right now the center(s) are a mess.

[tolakram]

saved loop. Kind of a mess at the moment.

[SunnyThoughts]

Beven states in the 5pm discussion: "There remains considerable uncertainty as to which portion of Florida...if any...could be affected by Isaac."

So, what is Beven saying here? Maybe not Florida? To the east of Florida, to the west of Florida? I think Beven might be in the Euro camp and is opening the door to a westward shift in the track?

If a new center reforms in the southern part of the cloud mass that is Isaac, I think that would make a huge difference in the eventual landfall area in 4-5 days from now......thought?........MGC

Of course the opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.

I sorta took that quote the same way, that perhaps he is in the euro camp. Just finished up watching Cantore/Norcross on TWC...they were emphasizing ( as we have been doing) just how LARGE this system is, said that even if it made landfall where the Euro puts it ..that Fla peninsula would still feel effects, not MAJOR hurricane effects, but plenty of rain and gusts for sure. This system is HUGE