ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Perhaps most here know and use Wunderground's "Wundermap" (trademarked) regularly, but I've just been using it for the first time today, and really appreciate being able to see close ups of how various islands are faring.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &ft=0&sl=0

Make sure "satellite" is clicked on to see the storm overlaid on top of the outline of the islands.

My sailing days in the Caribbean (took 2 family Windjammer trips) are long ago, and though I've visited Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martenique and Antigua, etc. I wouldn't have been able to pick most of them out correctly on the map today I'm sad to say!

[KWT]

Thats the first time I've seen the deep convection pluse across and almost connect up the two convective masses, deep convection over the old circulation.

Gotta wonder whether that may help to re-fortify the circulation.

[WeatherGuesser]

Moved the cone west again, didn't they? Hmmm.....

[SeminoleWind]

i know it looks a little discombobulated but Isaac does have some heavy convection firing and it really wouldnt take much for it to wrap up and strengthen.

[Gustywind]

Although malignant one that will provide the sequence of events...

[SeminoleWind]

Moved the cone west again, didn't they? Hmmm.....

nope cone is the same

[perk]

Beven states in the 5pm discussion: "There remains considerable uncertainty as to which portion of Florida...if any...could be affected by Isaac."

So, what is Beven saying here? Maybe not Florida? To the east of Florida, to the west of Florida? I think Beven might be in the Euro camp and is opening the door to a westward shift in the track?

Noticed the storm is moving just south of west......Euro?

If a new center reforms in the southern part of the cloud mass that is Isaac, I think that would make a huge difference in the eventual landfall area in 4-5 days from now......thought?........MGC

Of course the opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.

MGC i try not to read anything into the discussion that possibly is'nt there,but i found that comment interesting too.

[SFLcane]

Thats the first time I've seen the deep convection pluse across and almost connect up the two convective masses, deep convection over the old circulation.

Gotta wonder whether that may help to re-fortify the circulation.

Was just thinking the same thing KWT. I believe this thing could very well finally be on its way.

[cpdaman]

def an interesting comment by bevin but the reality is that with so many ensemble members where they are it doesn't take a huge stretch to move this thing into al/ms coast or further west if weakenss isn't enuf to drive isaac all the way north to a fl landfall or if it just stays further south and goes s. of keys.

[danielw]

It appears that the presence of two significant convective clusters is allowing Issac to jump the fence into the Caribbean. Where other storms have been shredded by the mountains.
I'm curious to see what happens when the eastern cluster arrives over the Caribbean. This system is so large it might become a runaway train.

Please consult your local weather service office for statements, watches and warnings. Including NWS and NHC offices.

[KBBOCA]

Beven states in the 5pm discussion: "There remains considerable uncertainty as to which portion of Florida...if any...could be affected by Isaac."

So, what is Beven saying here? Maybe not Florida? To the east of Florida, to the west of Florida? I think Beven might be in the Euro camp and is opening the door to a westward shift in the track?

Noticed the storm is moving just south of west......Euro?

If a new center reforms in the southern part of the cloud mass that is Isaac, I think that would make a huge difference in the eventual landfall area in 4-5 days from now......thought?........MGC

Of course the opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.

MGC i try not to read anything into the discussion that possibly is'nt there,but i found that comment interesting too.

I simply thought Beven's comment was to avoid scaring people that a Florida landfall is definite at this point! Certainly it is too early to call a CONUS landfall, so I understood him to highlight Florida as a significant area of risk, yet without committing to a FL landfall. Thought it was a perfectly sensible comment for him to make!

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like the Hurricane Hunters are zeroing in on a new center fix. So far lowest pressure 1004.2mb close to 15.7833N 61.9833W.

You were right as shown in the 8pm advisory.

[wxman57]

Looks like recon is still struggling to find any TS winds at the surface.

[SouthDadeFish]

Isaac two hours ago (21:45Z):



Isaac now (23:45Z):



You can easily see how the convective burst has grown in only two hours.

[Shuriken]

Looks like recon is still struggling to find any TS winds at the surface.

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.....

(8pm advisory)

[KBBOCA]

It appears that the presence of two significant convective clusters is allowing Issac to jump the fence into the Caribbean. Where other storms have been shredded by the mountains.
I'm curious to see what happens when the eastern cluster arrives over the Caribbean. This system is so large it might become a runaway train.

Please consult your local weather service office for statements, watches and warnings. Including NWS and NHC offices.

Daniel, the big mountains are still ahead - in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. I'm not aware that historically any of the smaller islands' mountains have seriously disrupted storms.

But I could be wrong!

[wxman57]

Looks like recon is still struggling to find any TS winds at the surface.

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.....

(8pm advisory)

Your point? I didn't see any evidence of such wind in the recon reports.The plane barely found TS wind at FL, and lacking convection to the NE it isnn't likely that the FL winds would translate well to the surface. SFMR supported that - 25-30 kt surface wind.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, the longer this continues to struggle to get together do you see it moving more west in line with what the euro is showing? Or will it not matter it will feel the weakness and turn more north as the gfs and others show?

[CDO62]

Isaac two hours ago (21:45Z):



Isaac now (23:45Z):



You can easily see how the convective burst has grown in only two hours.

To my untrained eye, it's looks like it's trying to wrap around the Eastern circulation with the new convection burst.

[ozonepete]

Moved the cone west again, didn't they? Hmmm.....

nope cone is the same

They only change track and cone at 5AM/PM and 11AM/PM.