ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It's going where Gordon intensified as well it seems?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane at 11 PM?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2012 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 28:50:28 N Lon : 53:22:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 977.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.5

Center Temp : -63.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[MGC]

Not wanting to be different, Nadine is waiting to be near 30 degrees north before becoming a hurricane....just like her brothers and sister this season. Never can remember a season where cyclones didn't become hurricane very close to 30N.........MGC

[CrazyC83]

Not wanting to be different, Nadine is waiting to be near 30 degrees north before becoming a hurricane....just like her brothers and sister this season. Never can remember a season where cyclones didn't become hurricane very close to 30N.........MGC

In the early 1990s, almost all the bigger storms were above 25N latitude...the deep tropics were practically dead for a few years...

[CrazyC83]

14/2345 UTC 29.7N 53.3W T4.5/4.5 NADINE -- Atlantic

Hurricane Nadine presumably - supports 75 kt.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is at 65kts,so we will have Hurricane Nadine on next advisory.

AL, 14, 2012091500, , BEST, 0, 296N, 529W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[greenkat]

00z Best Track is at 65kts,so we will have Hurricane Nadine on next advisory.

AL, 14, 2012091500, , BEST, 0, 296N, 529W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

I still think she's a little bit of an underacheiver. I mean, almost every time we thought she'd become a hurricane, she didn't.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012


...NADINE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[galaxy401]

Not wanting to be different, Nadine is waiting to be near 30 degrees north before becoming a hurricane....just like her brothers and sister this season. Never can remember a season where cyclones didn't become hurricane very close to 30N.........MGC

She became a hurricane at exactly 30 degrees North.

[MGC]

Yep, made hurricane at 30N......MGC

[Hammy]

interesting given how disappointing everyone is saying this year is
"NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005."

[Macrocane]

Good for Nadine, she finally could, let's see if it can intensify a little more.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2012091512, , BEST, 0, 308N, 506W, 70, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[greenkat]

interesting given how disappointing everyone is saying this year is
"NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005."

2005
But 1895? Impressive for a 1800's season.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Nadine at 15:45 UTC

[Cyclenall]

interesting given how disappointing everyone is saying this year is
"NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005."

That is the only interesting aspect to this season, the only one. But a carbon copy of last year was the most unexpected pattern. Another stat to think about in terms of this season's under-performance, the strongest tropical cyclone so far in this basin was Hurricane Michael with 100 knot winds (for 12 hours). We are at Sept.15 and that's all!? If that is the strongest for 2012 then you would have to go back to 1994 to find a season that only had 95 knots as its strongest TC...which was Hurricane Florence. We're competing with the doldrums of the early 90s, multi-year Nino in that department. I'm sure we're near a record for the ratio of named storms and major hurricanes at this point.

Nadine has looked more or less the same for the past 72-96 hours now. There is this ragged looking convection on the right attached to the main CDO ball that has been present since it reached 50 knots. Its so funny it became a hurricane at exactly 30ºN, so predictable . When it first became a hurricane I have a hunch that its wind speed was around 62.5 knots . More of this now:

[CrazyC83]

interesting given how disappointing everyone is saying this year is
"NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005."

That is the only interesting aspect to this season, the only one. But a carbon copy of last year was the most unexpected pattern. Another stat to think about in terms of this season's under-performance, the strongest tropical cyclone so far in this basin was Hurricane Michael with 100 knot winds (for 12 hours). We are at Sept.15 and that's all!? If that is the strongest for 2012 then you would have to go back to 1993 to find a season that only had 100 knots as its strongest TC...which was Hurricane Emily. We're competing with the doldrums of the early 90s, multi-year Nino in that department. I'm sure we're at a record for the ratio of named storms and major hurricanes at this point.

Nadine has looked more or less the same for the past 72-96 hours now. There is this ragged looking convection on the right attached to the main CDO ball that has been present since it reached 50 knots. Its so funny it became a hurricane at exactly 30ºN, so predictable . When it first became a hurricane I have a hunch that its wind speed was around 62.5 knots . More of this now:

1994 had no major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and until November, only one hurricane - which was barely one.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at 70kts.

AL, 14, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 475W, 70, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Hammy]

1936 had 16 storms and only one major, and 1990 had 8 hurricanes and only one major (at 105 knots)

[Cyclenall]

1994 had no major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and until November, only one hurricane - which was barely one.

I checked the database and still missed that, off by 1 year . Fixed the post. My correction on your post is that Chris became a hurricane in August and there were 3 hurricanes in 1994 with the strongest being Florence at 95 knots.

1936 had 16 storms and only one major, and 1990 had 8 hurricanes and only one major (at 105 knots)

Good find, but 1936 had poor intensity records compared to right now so likely more majors occurred undetected.

EDIT: I just made another error when fixing the old one! I don't think that's happened yet!