ATL: ISAAC - Models

[BigB0882]

So do we have some consensus between the Euro and the GFS?

The difference between the Euro and the GFS landfall is probably less than 500 miles, isn't it? I don't think thats SO bad this far out. Let's see what tonight's 0z runs hold, may come in to an even bigger consensus. I think we are all anxiously awaiting the first runs with all the data being collected. That will be Friday?

[Bocadude85]

How Long is the width of Florida with this current GFS run what should metro Broward and Palm Beach and Dade Country expect with winds and rain?

Well the GFS clips the SW Coast of Florida so I would say the metro areas would have possible tropical storm conditions depending on the strength and size of the system

[deltadog03]

Looks like GFS is pretty close to the 12z run...maybe a smidge W at a 2nd landfall in the big bend area.

[HurricaneBelle]

landfall (CONUS) in the big bend. That is pretty rare, isn't it?

Yes it is. Usually only low-end tropical storms make landfall in the area. Last full-fledged hurricane to make landfall in the area was probably 1950's Easy.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Would like to know if Isaac does happen to follow the GFS and track over cuba and Haiti/DR wouldnt that more than likely weaken him into a weak TS or possible depression. In turn being so weak move more west than GFS is showing. I mean GFS is practically showing him strengthening while crossing cuba this run and previous runs and we all know that is not going to happen. Seems to me GFS is trying to hard to make this a strong system and does not take the land interaction into account.

[Bocadude85]

The thing with the GFS is the way it has it approaching Florida.. a small jog to the north could make the difference between a SE or SW Florida landfall.

[tropicwatch]

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GFS is staying pretty consistent and if Isaac gets a distinct center of circulation and organization. The models I would think start to come in agreement a little better. It does look like it will be a GOM storm.

[JPmia]

landfall (CONUS) in the big bend. That is pretty rare, isn't it?

Yes it is. Usually only low-end tropical storms make landfall in the area. Last full-fledged hurricane to make landfall in the area was probably 1950's Easy.

That's right.. last hurricane was Easy, but last major hurricane? No record of a major hurricane making landfall there at least since 1899.. though hurricanes have been lurking our region for thousands/millions of years so not sure if that's much of a record! lol

[psyclone]

The thing with the GFS is the way it has it approaching Florida.. a small jog to the north could make the difference between a SE or SW Florida landfall.

exactly. that's why i'm not getting too hung up on any one solution. if the storm runs the spine of the state it would weaken as it headed north whereas if the the storm runs near or just off of either coast on a north-northwest heading the entire coast could get raked before an ultimate landfall. only 40 miles or so of longitude could make a huge difference and that is nothing this far out. the bottom line is that the long established trend of threat to florida remains intact but there is still plenty of time for that to change.

[KWT]

Looks like GFS is pretty close to the 12z run...maybe a smidge W at a 2nd landfall in the big bend area.

Yep its very similar to the previous run, so really we now need to see whether there is any shift from the GFS ensemble.

Worth noting the 12z ECM agreed with the 12z op with central Gulf of Mexico.

[Big O]

A well-respected met on another board posted the following:

"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac.  And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."

Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.

Sorry for the double post, but I thought it should be posted on both the discussion and models thread.

[deltadog03]

Looks like GFS is pretty close to the 12z run...maybe a smidge W at a 2nd landfall in the big bend area.

Yep its very similar to the previous run, so really we now need to see whether there is any shift from the GFS ensemble.

Worth noting the 12z ECM agreed with the 12z op with central Gulf of Mexico.

I had just seen that....That is something to really take notice of. This IS just about the EURO's Wheelhouse...granted, it can certainly be wrong, but we shall see.

[wxman76]

This isn't my forecast but just saying. Katrina was supposed to (NHC) hit the panhandle and ended up in New Orleans. Not saying that will happen again. Just something to ponder.

[Big O]

Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:

"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.

I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."

[Big O]

By the way, the Euro control model is further west than the operational. LF on central LA coast.

[hcane27]

I know a site that does ...

A site that does what? I think you hit submit too soon.

Sorry about that ...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/ATLCA.htm ... ECMWF is included in the "Spaghetti Plot" graphic

[BigB0882]

By the way, the Euro control model is further west than the operational. LF on central LA coast.

Could someone explain what the control model is? I don't think I have ever heard of that.

[Stormlover2012]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


gfs ensembles

[wxwatcher1999]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html


gfs ensembles

Seems like they went more west from the last time I seen them

[KWT]

The GFS ensembles much more spread out than earlier today, also they do on average seem to be furthur west.

The GFS op run is pretty much right down the middle of the ensemble solutions...

Interesting...