ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Does look like the center is going to end up a good deal SW of where it was orginally, no matter where it ends up eventually settling for. Thats going to have a huge difference to the chances of hitting Haiti you've got to imagine!

[adam0983]

Jim Cantore just said that a new center is forming to the north of the current center. This center could become the main center. if this occurs than we could have a more northern storm and the storm could follow the track of the GFDL Model which brings catergory 2 or 3 Hurricane towards the east coat of Florida. This is just an opinion forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is reforming again. recon having issues finding a good center fix. looks to be now well south of earlier fixes.

They're still following two centers. If you look at the overall circulation it still seems the eastern center will prevail. It is much more centered within the overall circulation envelope than the western center.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah there are multiple.. Im now just looking at the rotational dynamics. they are heading south and the winds suggest a vort well to the south.

[cheezyWXguy]

The center is reforming again. recon having issues finding a good center fix. looks to be now well south of earlier fixes.

They're still following two centers. If you look at the overall circulation it still seems the eastern center will prevail. It is much more centered within the overall circulation envelope than the western center.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I really cant tell for sure. I would want to agree with you, except for the fact that the huge complex of thunderstorms previously near the eastern center is now rushing toward the west, away from it. The whole envelope looks to be a bit elongated, making me think both of these co-vorticies are about equally matched still atm. If it does manage to take the western center as dominant, I do believe it will give the system a headstart in bypassing hispanola to the south, considering its current placement and estimated motion. If that is actually the case, the next 12 hours or so of reconsolidation of the center could prove to be pretty pivotal in determining how much land interaction Isaac faces in the near future.

[Aric Dunn]

possibly here. all depends really where we get sustained convection. but according recon right now. they are getting NE winds where there should be west winds if the center was to the north.

[KWT]

Man Aric if its down that low, this is never going to be a threat to Haiti, more likely to be a W.Cuba and Yucatan risk IF that turns out to be where it is setting up!

[KBBOCA]

Well Isaac may not be a "pretty" storm so far, but he sure is DARN interesting and has hundreds of us in his spell trying to figure out what he will do! ... why I'm addicted to the tropics!

[Aric Dunn]

Man Aric if its down that low, this is never going to be a threat to Haiti, more likely to be a W.Cuba and Yucatan risk IF that turns out to be where it is setting up!

you have to remember it will rotate back farther north do to rotational dynamics among other things.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Maybe just maybe Euro nailed this one this time. Have been saying for days the weaker the more west and still hasnt got its act together. Does not look like it will happen anytime soon either.

[wxman76]

There is still a lot of dry air around keeps getting sucked in. I noticed in the last dropsound at 850 mb the Temp Dewpoint spread is 5 degrees C 10 degrees F! That was the worst but no layers are really near saturation. This storm still seems to be spending a lot of energy moistening the atmosphere instead of developing.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Man Aric if its down that low, this is never going to be a threat to Haiti, more likely to be a W.Cuba and Yucatan risk IF that turns out to be where it is setting up!

you have to remember it will rotate back farther north do to rotational dynamics among other things.

hard to deny what recon is reporting. Also missed whatever vort is there to the north still measured almost 1004 mb

[ozonepete]

possibly here. all depends really where we get sustained convection. but according recon right now. they are getting NE winds where there should be west winds if the center was to the north.


[img ]http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg837/scaled.php?server=837&filename=rgb0g.jpg&res=landing[/img]

But it's still two centers rotating around each other. Look at your annotated chart. The northern center has much more convection. The southern center appears to be waning.

[ozonepete]

Also it is noticeably elongated west to east now. From the rotational dynamics I would expect the center to consolidate a little eastward, not southwestward.

[Aric Dunn]

possibly here. all depends really where we get sustained convection. but according recon right now. they are getting NE winds where there should be west winds if the center was to the north.


[img ]http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg837/scaled.php?server=837&filename=rgb0g.jpg&res=landing[/img]

But it's still two centers rotating around each other. Look at your annotated chart. The northern center has much more convection. The southern center appears to be waning.

the convection on the north side is building west indicating a circ to south. hard to explain the math but it appears to be whats happening.

[KWT]

Yeah Aric thats really a very solid looking wind shift, more uniform we've seen yet and it matches perfect with what you highlighted in another post.

IF that does turn out to be the area, I honestly think we will see a shift west from the models by the 00z/06z suites.

[monicaei]

With the models nudging west over the last few days, whats the chance SE La could come in play? Thanks

[tropicwatch]

The NOAA plane is finding lower pressures definitely south of the last fix. 997.1 located at 15.283N 61.833W at 00:01:30Z.

[Wx_Warrior]

With the models nudging west over the last few days, whats the chance SE La could come in play? Thanks

Well, last 2 EURO runs has SELA in the zone. Give it a few days.

[monicaei]

With the models nudging west over the last few days, whats the chance SE La could come in play? Thanks

Well, last 2 EURO runs has SELA in the zone. Give it a few days.

Thanks. What are the factors that put us into play? Just trying to figure out what to watch for.

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see the circ develop down there on radar.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?137