ATL: ISAAC - Models

[tolakram]

I'll take Brownsville for 60.

Joking!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My take, (this is opinion on model consensus, thus S2K disclaimer applies) , is that this is a "none of the above" sitauation right now even though improved model algorithms and improved forecasting skill are certainly evident the past couple years. no consensus or ensemble solution at this seems too likely with respect to any track at all given the climo history and the pure vectoring of a mostly N moving storm. The track error from forecast will likely be much better than say 3 or more years ago, but land areas impacted have a lot of variance possible this go 'round. It seems more likely that another factor "as yet to to be entered" will make this system end up west of current guidance OR well east actually. I have no clue as to what it will specifically be and well may be the impending land interactions or timing of the strenghtening. We have just bee here too many times with an "up the FL spine" situation that has never panned out to believe otherwise despite what the data says right now.

Bottom line I think this one will be one that moves within the "cone" a bit more than its looking right now largely due to timing and strength our past 72 hours. In any case, the current consensus of ALL the models is very concering as it's getting more likely to impact more people.

[SeminoleWind]

The GFS ensembles much more spread out than earlier today, also they do on average seem to be furthur west.

The GFS op run is pretty much right down the middle of the ensemble solutions...

Interesting...

i remember the GFS yesterday were all over the place from N.C. all the way to Texas, then this morning they were from Florida panhandle to GA.
Now they are back all over the place again

[Weatherfreak000]

Ensembles appear to continue to shift west...I wonder when and if GFS will buckle...

[KWT]

GFS ensembles are showing a few runs missing Haiti now, also quite a few now make it to the E.Gulf, a couple obviously make it a good bit further west than that as well...

[Ixolib]

This isn't my forecast but just saying. Katrina was supposed to (NHC) hit the panhandle and ended up in New Orleans. Not saying that will happen again. Just something to ponder.

For the record, Katrina didn't actually "end up in" New Orleans, but rather about 45 miles NE of there. But your point is well made with the shifts in the models...

[frederic79]

If you look at the historical data for Ivan, there was very much a consensus early on showing the FL peninsula. This was what the NHC track showed for quite some time and up to 5 days before landfall. But the ridge, even in mid September, was stronger than expected and kept Ivan headed west. Keep in mind that we are in mid-late August and the likelihood of stronger troughs is less than say mid-September. I feel like the euro may be seeing something here besides just assuming a weak TS.

[wxman76]

Thanks for the correction on Katrina's actual landfall you are correct. I know what all the models are saying. Been watching them too. I just can't ignore the European on this one. For the record I am forecasting a split between the GFS and Euro. Just have that feeling though that one of these two stubborn models is right and it won't end up in the middle and right now the gut leans to the European. As an Aside JB still has his track on the East Coast of Florida. I could see that yesterday but I have a hard time with it today so I must respectfully disagree with him on this one!


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Still pretty decent consensus for now around southeast florida. G-IV flight is not until tomorrow night so don't put any real faith on models until Friday morning.

[JPmia]

Wxman57 said the G-IV missions were today

[KWT]

True SFL, quite a few models still clustering around SW Florida but there does seem to be a slow shift towards the west again this eveing. The models will shift around but the longer it takes to pull itself together, the longer it stays on this westerly course.

[Bocadude85]

Seems the 18z models shifted west.. Im my opinion we will see a westward shift in the track at 11pm

[AdamFirst]

Wxman57 said the G-IV missions were today

There were none today.
There will be one tomorrow late in the day.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.

[sphelps8681]

When will the next models come out?

[ROCK]

we have some time to wait.....I got a 18Z NOGAPS I could give you and maybe the 18Z NAM.... those are always helpful....


Look at those ensembles...GFS caving into the EURO at 0Z? I am sniffing it!!

[Jevo]

Wxman57 said the G-IV missions were today

Nope... pretty jet go up tomorrow

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 18z gfdl shifted a little to thr right. Now shows landfall near broward and palm beach county. So much for the west shifts right lol

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Jevo]

12Z HWRF Operational Models... Completed

[wxman57]

Wxman57 said the G-IV missions were today

I may have misunderstood - G-IV may be tomorrow not today.

[Jevo]

18z GFDL + 84



18z GFDL +90



18z GFDL +96