ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[perk]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

wxman57 has your thinking changed as far as the track for Ernesto is concerned.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Will ADT be enough to bump it to 50kts at 11p.m?

2012AUG04 011500 3.2 999.1 49.0 3.2 3.4 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -68.76 -70.38 UNIFRM N/A N/A 14.04 65.32 FCST GOES13 19.9

[ozonepete]

looks like some very dry area to his west on the latest water vapor image...that could certainly cause the storm to struggle some this weekend

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/8093/wvlj.jpg

I still don't understand why these models are keeping this storm so weak. They have to be seeing something we're not. Perhaps there's some dry air ernesto is going to run into?

That satellite image is no good for showing mid-level water vapor. It is only reliable for upper level water vapor. You shouldn''t use it when referring to water vapor concentrations that affect tropical cyclones, ok?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looks like 60. Will NHC need recon or not? In a few minutes.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure didn't expect him to look this good by the end of the day when I woke up this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

what a improvement from earlier... could see a hurricane before the forecast calls for.

I wonder what kind of influence 91l will have on ernesto. it may end up making the weakness a little more pronounced and causing a more wnw to nw motion late tomorrow and sunday.

[ROCK]

typically SA inhibits development but in this case it feeding plenty of moisture most likely from the monsoon trof thats hanging out down there.

[RL3AO]

what a improvement from earlier... could see a hurricane before the forecast calls for.

Symmetry baby. Must have found an area of lighter shear. Maybe the next recon flight wont have a fail. I want to see what it says.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

50kts or 45 I'll be surmised if they don't upgrade.

[Meteorcane]

Ernesto looked slightly better a couple hours ago, but at the moment looks miles ahead (at least from a convective standpoint) of where he was 12ish hours ago.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTERESTS
IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF JAMAICA ON
SATURDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND APPROACH JAMAICA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT45 KNHC 040238
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Do they need recon? Looks great.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[HurricaneAndrew92]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

I'm surprised! Only 50?!!!!does not even resemble itself 12 hours ago.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure is an ominous proposition if he does indeed become a hurricane before expected. That would most likely mean somebody is going to have to deal with a very strong system before all is said and done. Maybe some sheer will swoop in and knock it down sooner or later, hopefully sooner.

Not a forecast, just an opinion.

[pledger28]

The 11o'clock run should clarify things a bit more at least for the intensity until it hits the Yuk. The Yuk should weaken it some but when it hits the gulf waters we should all get a clearer picture. If in fact a weaker storm should go west and a stronger storm should go north I think landfall will be between galveston, tx and white lake, la but maybe as far east as morgan city. I am not a pro and this is not a forecast but I think that anything further east than that is just wishful thinking. This all hangs on the track of the storm remaining as is until the Yuk. I dont think the Mexico track is viable.

This is not a forecast.

[Meteorcane]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

I'm surprised! Only 50?!!!!does not even resemble itself 12 hours ago.

It will take a while before this structural changes manifest them in lowering pressures and raising winds, also the Plane's malfunction did not help matters as direct obs would have provided a clearer picture than Dvorak.

[Dave]

May have ran into extreme turbulence.

I was wondering that too. This really sucks!

once I got a chance to look at what I'd pasted up there they were too low to make any sense. Has to be equipment problems for the reason they returned early tonight....just guessing though on that.

If that's the reason, then I'll be unhappy as some information (pressure, location, etc.) is better than none.

When was the last successful recon mission?

If there was trouble with the flight level, sfmr, & rainfall readings then they may have felt like the other readings would go out also at some point. Every piece of equipment will fail at the worst possible time, that's the law of electronics, so they returned to base instead of giving out false readings. We've seen several recon missions without pressure readings for the entire mission...it just seems to happen. New equipment would help also but...I won't go there. Mind you this is pure speculation on my part but it may have been what happened. Hopefully that's the last of the problems this month.

[Weatherfreak000]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Still slowing down...slowed down by 2 MPH since the last advisory. Convection waning but still consolidating and expanding. 50 MPH though? Not buying it....needs more RECON.

[jinftl]

Excerpt from 11pm Discussion really shows the conflicting model solutions down the road...

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA.