ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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jasons2k
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1861 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:50 pm

I think this is the most significant take-away from the discussion:

BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1862 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:52 pm

Looking at the Rainbow IR, looks like he will be a hurricane with in the next 12 hours. I don't know if you will consider this RI or not, but I think everyone from Nicaragua to Tampa need to keep an eye on Ernesto and that includes Cuba, and all the other islands of the Caribbean.
Last edited by Blinhart on Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1863 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:55 pm

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#1864 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:58 pm

So they need Ernesto to be A) far enough North and B) strong enough in order to feel the weakness. It looks like he is definitely churning along and showing great potential to strengthen so I have a feeling that one of the 2 requirements will easily be met. The other one...we will have to see.
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#1865 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:58 pm

despite all that... the models are not showing any development with 91l if it does even just lower the pressures in the are that will likely cause a more pronounced weakness that the models are not picking up on. that may be a key factor to watch.
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Re:

#1866 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:despite all that... the models are not showing any development with 91l if it does even just lower the pressures in the are that will likely cause a more pronounced weakness that the models are not picking up on. that may be a key factor to watch.


So you're saying the Fl peninsula isn't off the hook yet?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1867 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:07 pm

that was a very small nudge indeed.....GFS rolling..time for the model thread...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1868 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:08 pm

ASCAT missed the center,only got the frontal area. Pass was made at 9:33 PM EDT.

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#1869 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:11 pm

18zNAEFS Ensembles have Ernesto anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico by Saturday Morning...

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1870 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:12 pm

This thing chewed up and spit out the east Caribbean unfavorable zone. I think we can interpolate from there.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1871 Postby gqhebert » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:18 pm

where is air force met? curious to know his thoughts
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ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1872 Postby littlevince » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:18 pm

Strong convective burst in the last couple of hours

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Re: Re:

#1873 Postby ilovestorms » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:20 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:despite all that... the models are not showing any development with 91l if it does even just lower the pressures in the are that will likely cause a more pronounced weakness that the models are not picking up on. that may be a key factor to watch.


So you're saying the Fl peninsula isn't off the hook yet?



No one on the Gulf Coast is off the hook yet! :wink:
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1874 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:21 pm

littlevince wrote:Strong convective burst in the last couple of hours

http://i.imgur.com/7rA2T.gif


I notice a tad slower movement.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1875 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:
littlevince wrote:Strong convective burst in the last couple of hours

http://i.imgur.com/7rA2T.gif


I notice a tad slower movement.


I think the models are under estimating the weakness. dont think florida is in the window right now but the northern gulf coast is not out of the wood yet. 91l may contribute to creating more of a weakness. just have to wait and see.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1876 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
littlevince wrote:Strong convective burst in the last couple of hours

http://i.imgur.com/7rA2T.gif


I notice a tad slower movement.


I think the models are under estimating the weakness. dont think florida is in the window right now but the northern gulf coast is not out of the wood yet. 91l may contribute to creating more of a weakness. just have to wait and see.

yes that some thing model not picking up weakness done by 91l
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1877 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:28 pm

jasons wrote:I think this is the most significant take-away from the discussion:

BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


Yup, I agree. Jasons, still too early, but keep the hurricane prep kit handy.
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#1878 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:31 pm

I hesitate going against Wxman57's gut call of Mexico, he's pretty good at tropical weather IMO.

But tonight makes me think Texas is very much in play with Ernesto.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1879 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:38 pm

00Z GFS is rolling


27hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1880 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:40 pm



Again it fails as it does not have a storm and now TD6.
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