ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[WxEnthus]

Breaking News= NYC MTA considering shutting down subways, tunnels, bridges and railways at 7PM EDT tomorrow night. They will make the call on that tomorrow and with a few hours notice.

Just got off the phone with my sister. She is trying to find an even earlier flight because although she thinks she'll be able to get out of NYC with a late morning flight, she has a layover in Philly that doesn't fly out until almost evening and she doesn't want to get stuck in Philly.

However, the friends she's visiting with (members of the Atlanta Symphony Orchestra) are not scheduled to leave until Sunday night.

Also, she said there are continuous announcements at the subway stations warning about potential closure of the lines. From what she's seen local officials seem to be taking the storm very seriously.

[MBryant]

People have no idea.

Size matters.

Sustained gales over many hours is as devastating as Hurricane force winds for a short duration at times. Watching from upper floors windows is something the gulf coast residents know is dangerous, but most in the NE are clueless.

Yes. Sometimes newscasters hype a storm, but that is because of the devastation if they don't and you get the full brunt of a storm.

Is your life worth so little that you will only react if there's certainty of your death? Come on people.

Most people will be OK, but some will die needlessly from lack of simple preparedness and knowledge.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not trying to downplay this, I'm really just curious. I read Jeff Master's latest blog about how the surge potential is a 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6, which is obviously very dangerous. However, I keep hearing surge estimates in the 3 to 6 foot range excluding tidal influence, which is frankly, a bit lower than i might have thought for such a high surge potential. I know that much of the area is low lying and that this kind of surge will likely do some serious damage, but I guess it would seem in my mind that such an enormous storm moving such a huge mass of water would pile up more water than 3 or so feet above normal tidal cycles. Jeff's charts show a storm surge comparable to or even slightly less than Irene of last year, and I would have guessed that due to Sandy's considerably higher strength and size, it would easily trump Irene's. Could someone explain this to me?

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm not trying to downplay this, I'm really just curious. I read Jeff Master's latest blog about how the surge potential is a 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6, which is obviously very dangerous. However, I keep hearing surge estimates in the 3 to 6 foot range excluding tidal influence, which is frankly, a bit lower than i might have thought for such a high surge potential. I know that much of the area is low lying and that this kind of surge will likely do some serious damage, but I guess it would seem in my mind that such an enormous storm moving such a huge mass of water would pile up more water than 3 or so feet above normal tidal cycles. Jeff's charts show a storm surge comparable to or even slightly less than Irene of last year, and I would have guessed that due to Sandy's considerably higher strength and size, it would easily trump Irene's. Could someone explain this to me?

That may be INITIAL surge, but from what I'm reading, this will be cumulative, due to the storms size. It will encompas several high tide cycles too, and the large size of the storm continually piling up the water, not letting it normally flow back as tides recede.

Just what I've been reading on this - NOT A FORCAST - Please consult NOAA or other Professionals for Official Forcasts

[artist]

I'm not trying to downplay this, I'm really just curious. I read Jeff Master's latest blog about how the surge potential is a 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6, which is obviously very dangerous. However, I keep hearing surge estimates in the 3 to 6 foot range excluding tidal influence, which is frankly, a bit lower than i might have thought for such a high surge potential. I know that much of the area is low lying and that this kind of surge will likely do some serious damage, but I guess it would seem in my mind that such an enormous storm moving such a huge mass of water would pile up more water than 3 or so feet above normal tidal cycles. Jeff's charts show a storm surge comparable to or even slightly less than Irene of last year, and I would have guessed that due to Sandy's considerably higher strength and size, it would easily trump Irene's. Could someone explain this to me?

That may be INITIAL surge, but from what I'm reading, this will be cumulative, due to the storms size. It will encompas several high tide cycles too, and the large size of the storm continually piling up the water, not letting it normally flow back as tides recede.

Just what I've been reading on this - NOT A FORCAST - Please consult NOAA or other Professionals for Official Forcasts

and along the coast you have the high waves that will be on top of the surge.

[KBBOCA]

The surge does seem to be the thing to focus on. At Wunderground (Jeff Masters' blog, in the comments) I just saw this:

Sandy's storm surge IKE rating is 5.4 / 6. Let's compare this to some other destructive hurricanes at peak in recent history.

Irene, 2011 (5.1)

Ike, 2008 (5.4)

[Links should now work, I hope]

Dr. Masters seems to suggest that the storm may move a bit more quickly than originally thought which perhaps might lessen the risk of water piling up?

But I agree, I don't fully understand the surge models, and I too was surprised that Dr. Masters post suggested that surge in NYC might be just a bit less than Irene. I thought the angle of the storm was likely to make it worse.

So, I second the request for info from someone who understands these things better. Thanks!

[RL3AO]

However a 7 to 10 foot storm surge on Long Island is still a major event. Also, with full moon on Tuesday, high tides will be higher than average.

[greels]

Howdy Folks....

Some of you may remember me when my husband and I were living in Providenciales, Turks & Caicos Islands, (2004 - 2009) and I was then somewhat active on the Board....especially in late 2008 when we were hit first by Hannah and then by Ike. Before I go any further, all of you have been a GODSEND to me over the years and I cannot thank you enough for answering my many questions and offering support when I most needed it (since it was sooo difficult to get any "correct'info down there at the time.)

But I digress...we are now back on the US mainland and living on the southcoast of Massachusetts in very close proximity to the ocean. We weathered Irene last year quite well (I am a veteran of many hurricanes, so no problem). Being a First Responder (tho "Lay" at the moment due to a TKR). we are always prepared for any weather event 24/7....365.

I have noticed a distinct change in the attitude of folks in this community and surrounding towns with regards to the approaching Sandy. Since we are being told we may be prone to "extreme conditions" (NE quadrant) there is not the complacency I saw last year with Irene....people are taking this seriously and water, batteries and gennies (if any left...) are flying off the shelves. To me, this is a good thing.

Sorry to have rambled on at length, but thought some folks might like to know that folks here seem to be heeding the warnings of officials.

Thoughts & prayers to all in the path of this storm and I will report in as conditions here deteriorate.

Gretchen

[Hey Its Me]

Via Mike Smith's blog from NHC Public Relations.

Dennis Feltgen, head of public relations for the National Hurricane Center.

Mike,

We will put something on our website and FB page soon to explain this.

But the bottom line is that a hurricane watch/warning for the coast cannot be issued if it is not a hurricane. It has to be handled by the other NWS watch/warnings products

Seriously? Fix it in post analysis... Is-if people were not already complacent enough.

[CrazyC83]

The IKE also takes into account surge distribution though, and in this case, the surge will be distributed over an extremely large area, probably all the way to northern New England. Regardless, the surge should be larger than Irene because of a different direction of impact (if Irene hit at the same angle, it would likely be similar).

[WeatherGuesser]

Ray Leonard knows a thing or two about monster storms. In fact, he's the skipper of the Satori, the 32-foot sailboat that rode out THE perfect storm 21 years ago.

And if he had loved ones living in the path of Hurricane Sandy, which was barreling north from the Caribbean and already was responsible for dozens of deaths, he'd tell them to get out before they need to be saved.

"Don't be rash," the 85-year-old sailor said in a telephone interview Saturday from his home in Fort Myers, Fla. "I would be sure that I had a vehicle that was pretty substantial. I would be sure I had a decent supply of fuel and water

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/91-p ... Iw63aKDrYw

[KBBOCA]

Alot of what I'm about to post is over my head. But thought it was important and interesting to post here. I found it in the comments to Jeff Masters' most recent post at Wunderground - it explains that extremely rare "blocking feature" which is part of what is allowing this storm to turn into the coast rather than stay out to sea:

the following is a comment on Nevens Arctic Sea Ice Blog:

Again the weather systems are moving "slow to stop" in the Arctic. Its important to study the reason why the Anticyclones "wall" facing Hurricane Sandy were created. Most meteorological presenters stop at that, they say there is this High pressure block, without going deeper.

The creation of high pressures in the Arctic does not come about just like that, frequently they exist because its cold, there is very little moisture hence no clouds and finally they subsist almost exclusively with one boundary layer (a substantial inversion). High pressures always co-exist with lows and vice-versas.

Lately over the Arctic Ocean cyclones have been hanging over open water.
In 2 to 3 major regions. This is no accident, they are fed in a quasi stable thermal dynamic state. This prompts the creation of adjoining Anticyclones to the South of the Arctic ocean, where ideal conditions exist, especially over snow laden lands, in particular Siberia, and Northern Canada. Highs distribute higher pressure stabilizing air towards the Cyclones (by winds) in order to fill the stubborn persistent Lows. With thicker multi-year ice Cyclones had no chance to persist
long, and moved quicker wherever there was lower pressure path, a dance of moving Highs and Lows ensued. Now the Lows hang out steady well "fed" by a lot of sea energy. There is an imbalance, to the South the Highs expand bigger and bigger to compensate until:

" the North Atlantic Oscillation, which helps measure this blocking flow, "is forecast to be three standard deviations from the average "" -Capital Weather Gang

And from there the tropical hurricane meets the pressure wall created from the Arctic.

Hope I'm not posting something crazy or controversial. I don't understand all of the above, but I know a lot of people here pay attention to the NAO, etc.

[KBBOCA]

Wave forecast animation:



found in the Wunderground comments on Masters' blog

Note: Sorry there doesn't seem to be a legend to indicate the heights, nor can I figure out the original source... I'm trying.

[cycloneye]

Here is an update by Dr Jeff Masters about the storm surge for NYC.

The new storm surge forecasts using the 12Z run of the GFS model from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory, are in. The peak storm surge from Sandy at The Battery in NYC is predicted to reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. The new forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy. I updated my post with the new graphic.

A couple of other points: the full moon is adding only about 5% to the height of the high tide--about 3 - 4".

A storm surge damage potential of 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6 sounds like a lot, but we won't be seeing the kind of extreme storm surge damage a Cat 3 storm with a lower number on that scale would cause.

Jeff Masters

[cryptoz]

Google cancels Monday's Android event over hurricane
CNET
53 minutes ago

Written by
Casey Newton

Android fans eager to get a look at the latest Nexus smartphones and tablets will have to wait a little longer. Google e-mailed reporters today saying that it was canceling the event because of concerns surrounding Hurricane Sandy.



------

Now we KNOW things are getting serious!!

In Google-related hurricane news, I'm rushing to release a small update to pressureNET, my Android-powered barometer network, to display recent pressure tendencies on a map (over time). There are a number of pressureNET users in the expected path of Sandy, and I'm curious if my data can play a role or provide insight during the storm.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... ternetwork

It's free and open source of course, at http://cumulonimbus.ca. I definitely feel a bit in-over-my-head with regards to meteorology and atmospheric science, so if anyone feels like they want to help out that's always welcome. Email us at software@cumulonimbus.ca

I've been lurking here for a while and rarely post. I hope it's okay that I link to my project - if not let me know, sorry. There's no profit involved, I'm building it to research new methods of gathering weather data (in hopes to improve short-term, local prediction).

[KBBOCA]

NASA's Hurricane Sandy Page:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... Sandy.html

[KBBOCA]

This is NOT a political post. But good for NJ Gov. Chris Christie for taking action and also straight talking:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/1 ... ie_te.html

Gov. Chris Christie ordered the mandatory evacuation starting at 4 p.m. Sunday of barrier islands from Sandy Hook south to Cape May as well as Atlantic City casinos. He declared the entire state under a state of emergency. .... "We should not underestimate the impact of this storm and we should not assume the predictions will be wrong," he said. "I know, I've lived here all my life too, everyone's saying 'Crap, this isn't going to happen. The weathermen always get it wrong and we'll just hang out and not really pay attention.' Please don't, ok? We have to be prepared for the worst here."

[MiamiensisWx]

I know that many people here have digressed with Frank because he has consistently downplayed Sandy, but for the first time I am inclined to agree with him that Sandy may not be as serious as originally feared. There are several reasons:

1) Sandy is currently moving NNE rather than NE and is doing so at a faster-than-expected rate. The GFS and ECMWF operational models have been forecasting a slower and NE movement for another 24 to 36 hours, followed by a turn to the WNW as Sandy phases (merges) with the trough. Instead, Sandy already appears to be caught in the trough and is moving west of these models’ projections. An extrapolation of the current movement would likely mean less of a phase with the trough and less of a sharp WNW turn before landfall, meaning the turn would likely occur inland instead. Instead, Sandy would likely be curving NW at landfall and, due to its more westerly track, make landfall closer to N Delaware--and the track of the NHC--rather than central New Jersey, meaning less of a surge impact in many areas, including New York, due to a different (not WNW) angle of approach.

2) Because Sandy is not entirely in the ideal region for deepening (the core of the jet entrance to its NE), its more westerly location and faster movement may mean its 962-mb central pressure may continue to rise for another 24 to 36 hours before slowly deepening again. This means that Sandy would likely be weaker in the short term and also weaker than what models have been forecasting at landfall--probably closer to 955-960 mb rather than 940-950 mb. A shallower Sandy, farther west than expected, would not deepen as much due to the less favorable jet location, less time over the Atlantic, and less of a direct phase with the trough. It would also not produce as large or as big a surge as expected--in terms of both height and extent--due to its weaker intensity and less pronounced (NW as opposed to WNW) angle of approach.

This is totally unofficial, but I really think that the surge potential should not be greater than what was seen in Irene 2011 and that the wind threat is decreasing as well. Rain and snow should be the main hazards. All these trends just go to show that you really need a major hurricane accelerating from the Bahamas, rather than a late-season nor’easter-type hybrid, and a major hurricane that phases directly (à la 1938, a hybrid that really phased completely due to its location in the jet entrance), to really deliver the full punch of high winds and large surge to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

[galaxy401]

How much bigger is Sandy going to become?

[GoneBabyGone]

All these trends just go to show that you really need a major hurricane accelerating from the Bahamas, rather than a late-season nor’easter-type hybrid, and a major hurricane that phases directly (à la 1938, a hybrid that really phased completely due to its location in the jet entrance), to really deliver the full punch of high winds and large surge to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

Let's not count our chickens.