ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

all media here going almost full coverage of ISAAC here in miami their live at homedepot and publix

Evening,

I saw several news trucks already today in front of the NHC. So yes it looks as if the media hype is about to go into high gear.

not supprise news here not done report from nhc yet but i bet thur their will i watch ch4 and ch 7

[Shuriken]

Toss up:

Q. Has any model ever forecast (let alone successfully) rapid intensification?

[MGC]

Isaac had better start turning to the WNW if it is going to hit Hispaniola...Trucking along to the west quickly......MGC

[SapphireSea]

Toss up:

Q. Has any model ever forecast (let alone successfully) rapid intensification?

The good old GFDL has done a great job in certain years (2004 and 2005) although it may have been a fluke since it was always a bit aggressive with RI. RI is a matter of objective overview of all the factors and soundings for the environment the storm is in, and more importantly where it's going.

[wxwatcher1999]

Isaac had better start turning to the WNW if it is going to hit Hispaniola...Trucking along to the west quickly......MGC

I was just looking at that too...if he misses it that would really change track

[StarmanHDB]

Definitely looking healthier. Convection is firing and appears to be attempting a wrap around an LLC. Nice outflow too.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is he still making his forecasted points?

[EBrads146]

To me, it looks like the deep convection and cold cloud tops have jumped the Lesser Antilles. Does anyone else see that? Not so much the huge convective burst, but the illusion that it leapfrogged or "hopped" the islands from the east side of the storm to the west.

On topic, this storm is massive and it certainly looks better organized than before. Convection seems to be here to stay, although I'd stand by that 100% after D min tomorrow. If I were the NHC, I'd go with 45 kts at 5. With a storm so big I feel it would take some time for organization to translate to strengthening. Just my opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

Definitely looking healthier. Convection is firing and appears to be attempting a wrap around an LLC. Nice outflow too.

Still looks pretty elongated to me

[ROCK]

yeah it still has internal issues....I just wish it would pick a center and stick with it already.

[summersquall]

Is he still making his forecasted points?

Assuming the center is as stated in the NHC 11 PM Discussion, 15.8N 63.0W , he was pretty close to the 8pm forecast pt at 11 pm.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt assume that is the center.....the NHC did their best guess with the REDON data they had....RECON is going out late tonight maybe just maybe it will have picked one....

[StormClouds63]

Ike size and Dennis path?

[RL3AO]

So far the air appears saturated at 850mb in the north part of the CDO. Bit of an improvement.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's a really awesome Water Vapor Loop and a cool Website @ PSU.

You can see the Dry Air Mixing out of the atmosphere and the ULL to the East not affecting the storm as much and the result of those things.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

[summersquall]

So far the air appears saturated at 850mb in the north part of the CDO. Bit of an improvement.

Seems like there is not nearly as much entrained dry air as there was previously.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

la breeze well slow to a near stall then move west is more appropriate language then when i used hook.....as jasons said it would be the ridge of high pressure over the SE united states building in and the flow around the bottom of the high being east to west steering flow

I don't think the ridge can build in until the trough that has been there for 2 weeks moves out. that trough doesn't look to be moving until Sunday at least.

[SapphireSea]

Storm looks like it is now being vented better by the ULL to the east. I can see the outflow structure improve dramatically now that in the last few hours it's got some distance from the aforementioned ULL.

[SapphireSea]

Here's a really awesome Water Vapor Loop and a cool Website @ PSU.

You can see the Dry Air Mixing out of the atmosphere and the ULL to the East not affecting the storm as much and the result of those things.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

I am also seeing the E. Coast troughing out here holding on longer than expected? The trough and it's low seem to have plenty of energy.

[Shuriken]

Here's a really awesome Water Vapor Loop and a cool Website @ PSU.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

I see you, and raise you: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Mwahahahahah....

- - - -

Personal forecast 'til morning: The CDO-ish feature will appear to go stationary and warm, maybe even nearly dying off -- but this is only temporary as the various coalescing centers swirl around a common rotational axis at about 15N. (All the board fan-peeps will groan as their big proto-hurricane appears to fizzle once again.) About 9am EST tomorrow, the surface and mid-level centers complete stacking, and Isaac begins an uninterrupted, and at times rapid, intensification trend.