northjaxpro wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:I think one thing that we need to take into account will be center relocation due to the disruption that is sure to happen when it crosses Hispaniola and Cuba. A center relocation to the north of Hispaniola sooner than what the models are showing could throw a big wrench into the future track and intensity of the system.
SFT
This is a very good thouht and assessment SFT. I agree. Center reformation after interacting with Cuba and Haiti will be a critical factor as we approach that juncture.
I think we've seen this with old Irene. A storm may interact with land and have the center weaken some, however parts over water (like what happens with small land masses like Cuba) may keep powerful convection and cause new centers or eddys to develop. This can have the potential to become the new LLC and/or pull the old one over to it. I think there have been a few cases of this happening with systems.
. One thing I want to clarify: our track forecasting is leaps and bounds better than our intensity forecasting, and has improved substantially over the last few decades. The dynamical models now routinely outperform the statistically-based ones for track forecasting. My comments regarding the "crap shoot" refer specifically to intensity forecasting, which is far more challenging. I have every confidence that will also improve as our models do, but it's going to be a much longer road than the improvement in track forecasting has been.
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