ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty big shifts in GFDL and HWRF and now have some consensus between the two. Gotta keep an eye on Debby here in south LA.

[ROCK]

not quite....more like Rockport (mid-Texas coast).. ...still has a ways to go before Matagorda and Freeport.

[robbielyn]

Pressure: 1000 MB
Maximum Wind Gusts: 50 MPH
Movement: Stationary

As of 8 P.M. advisory.

Aha. I just recently posted that you could see the center they have been following has gone stationary. And I just have to say it looks like it is getting pulled eastward or northeastward at this time, gradually shifting under the convection. That could of course make for a significant adjustment towards the GFS solution.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is clearly moving under the convection.
Not a met

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds75.png


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[caneman]

I don't see any way this gets to Texas. I know what the experts are saying and some of the models but I also trust my eyes in seeing the whole mass moving North, ULL out West. IF anything moves towards Texas it will be a naked swirl that would have to re-build itself with little time to do so.

Just amateur opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds75.png
http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/6284/ascat.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Looking at this, it looks to be reforming under the convection

[PerdidoGirl]

Some nice gusts to 25 mph this evening in Perdido/West Pensacola which we haven't had until now. BTW, we really don't need the rain here. Recorded 20.6 in with our floods a couple of weeks back.

[tolakram]

Probably the last visible of the evening. I enhanced the contrast. You can see the elongated center, which I believe indicates some kind of re-formation to the east or northeast.

[Laser30033003]

Yes I see the same thing to.....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There is no new low.

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds75.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Looking at this, it looks to be reforming under the convection

You can see 2 centers. Let's see what the next pass shows.

[Jevo]

not quite....more like Rockport (mid-Texas coast).. ...still has a ways to go before Matagorda and Freeport.

yeah you're probably right. I eyed it and tried to line it up with a google earth shot...

[KWT]

Yep that center is pretty elongated at the moment...and I do think the system may well focusing in further east, however whether thats enough to help the system latch onto the upper trough is uncertain.

[tolakram]

There is no new low.

Can you quote who you are responding to and explain your reasoning please. Center reformation is very common in sheared systems, as many pro-mets here have already mentioned.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hurricane Andrew THREAT Outlook (HATO)
---
Note: here is a definition of the categories.

RED means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area shortly, with winds, heavy rain, and other threats.


YELLOW means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area within 36 hours, and/or that a TS could effect the area in the shorter term with heavy rain, winds, and a tornado threat.


BLUE means that a weakish TS may effect the area within 36 hours, or that a TD/Weak TS is causing heavy rain, but lighter winds, and a tornado threat in the area.


7pm HATO

Western Florida coast, and the panhandle. Mainly western part the Florida (non-panhandle).
Next Outlook: 9pm

Comments/Suggustions are appreciated.

Hurricane Andrew THREAT Outlook
9pm Update

-Western Florida coast, from the southernmost tip to the FL/AL border.
-Western portions of inland florida from the southernmost tip up. Al of the inland panhandle.
Next Update: Either 11pm, or tommorow morning.

Commets appreciated.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2012062400, , BEST, 0, 261N, 875W, 45, 1000, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[ozonepete]

There is no new low.

No one is saying that. There are shifting areas of lowest surface pressure around an elogated center. There is no solid evidence yet as to where it will wind up because this is a developing system with as lot of shear involved.

[wkwally]

I know that this is looking more and more like north of Corpus but I am telling my friends and family to prepare and think at this point just in case. no need to make a rush to the store or anything but think about what is needed. Brownsville is still in the cone and at this point many things can still happen

[bamajammer4eva]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Anybody see new center get pulled into convection here?? Quite a jump if true.

[carpe vinum]

I thought I saw a little wink in earlier sat loops.