ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[KWT]

I just saw NHC Stacey Stewart on TWC. He stated that all northern gulf coast is gonna feel effects like gusty winds, plenty of rain, isolated tornadoes. But he said Texas is gonna feel the most middle of next week. Didn't seem unsure of their forecast at all.

Sounds reasonable to me, I think unless it pulls a surprise this system will remain a sheared system and so will spread a large amount of moisture on its north and eastern flanks.

Ps, you can see the dual low thing that recon found very easily on that Vis.imagery there. Looks very stretched.

[wkwally]

when is the next recon

[Hurricane Andrew]

when is the next recon

Takeoff is scedule for 6:15am eastern, with the mission from 7am to 2pm eastern. (sceduled)

[tolakram]

I find this WV loop interesting: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Note how the deeper convection keeps firing more east as the day progresses. No, I do not know if this is significant. The ULL over the Texas coast does seem to be moving away faster now.

[wkwally]

when is the next recon

Takeoff is scedule for 6:15am eastern, with the mission from 7am to 2pm eastern. (sceduled)

I will have to watch for the info from it and see what the models say tomorrow so I can decide on preps here. For sure I need to set up the Jeep with my gear in case I have to go out and spot

[KWT]

Just had a good look at the 2km Sat.loop on Dupage and its clear that the center IS reforming further NE...and even more interestingly its already reformed once, the first time was only slightly NE but that one fizzled almost as fast as it set-up and now a new one near the convection is taking over.

If this continues than the GFS may have made a very good call...

Ps, with that being said it seems like there is still a broader gyre within which the vortex is reforming further NE.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The center was just analyzed by the NHC at 87.5W 26.1N. There is no evidence to support a new, developing low-level center nor a reformation.

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rgb-short.html

Anybody see new center get pulled into convection here?? Quite a jump if true.

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/5843/captureuxn.png]

That's exactly what we're all looking at. Thanks for posting the image. Still too early to see if it holds, and the problem is that as the sun goes down we won't be able to see much until tomorrow morning.

[KatDaddy]

To much analyzing tropical models and satellites all day.

[Weatherfreak000]

No clue how this affects landfall....GFS functions by splitting the energy...not so sure just a center formation will put SFL in any more risk unless the trof picks it up....otherwise it should still move west

[KWT]

The center was just analyzed by the NHC at 87.5W 26.1N. There is no evidence to support a new, developing low-level center nor a reformation.

Take a look at this:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Then look at the 2km Gulf of Mexico link on the bottom right, and you'll see that the system is clearly stretching and re-focusing further NE and you'll see that in fact it already HAS reformed once but fizzled pretty rapidly as the previous old decaying center circulated around it.

It's still a very disorganised system at the surface.

AFM did say he thought the elephant in the room was possible relocations to the NE and it seems to be happening.

[ozonepete]

The center was just analyzed by the NHC at 87.5W 26.1N. There is no evidence to support a new, developing low-level center nor a reformation.

They always move very conservatively which is the proper way fro them to go. There is plenty of time for them to adjust and no reason to change the current position based on visuals alone. If the center is truly shifting northeastward they will catch it in time. I would not be surprised if they talk about this in the 11PM discussion. This is one of the toughest forecast calls I've seen in a long long time.

[robbielyn]

I find this WV loop interesting: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Note how the deeper convection keeps firing more east as the day progresses. No, I do not know if this is significant. The ULL or the Texas coast does seem to be moving away faster now.

The water vapor I just looked at looks like the ull is pushing the system eastward like saying this is my this is my turf buddy and looks to be getting stronger not retrograding either. Its give debby's cloudtops a serious buzz top.

[thetruesms]

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should that materialize.

I just saw a pig fly by my window!

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

Hopefully this time it won't pull a Don.

Reminds me of just before Beryl made her final approach. As it was coming in, I briefly thought "Oh man, I hope this doesn't pull a Don!" Fortunately, it did not. Although to show how dry it was, a lot of guys in the field reported to me that after the rains moved through, there still wasn't any standing water. And we also had wildfires that survived the storm's passing, and popped back up once it started to dry out.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Fascinating that you're still seeing the "big drop" region on the leading edge of the line. Much more in keeping with the drop size distribution of continental convection than tropical. Can you possibly grab screens of the other polarimetric variables from that time? I opened up my GR just a little too late.

[caneman]

Can anyone tell me or have a link for what the sea heights are? Leaving for a cruise tomorrow will be heading to Key West and then Cayman. Thanks

[Weatherfreak000]

Just did a tad bit of research observe:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... 2/slp3.png

18 hours out....Debby is consolidating....then observe...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... 2/slp4.png

6 hours later the LLC......it has actually migrated to the NE....seem familar?


CMC might be onto something?


Edit: Note this isn't the most recent run..it is the run before it.

Sry Mods, Forgot.

[jlauderdal]

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should that materialize.

I just saw a pig fly by my window!

i grabbed those images for you will try sending via PM

[Ixolib]

With all the talk about the GFS track (eastward) vs. NHC track (westward), I'm wondering if anyone recalls a time when the NHC flip-flopped it's forecast track by 180 degrees? Seems to me that in the last several years, the NHC track has generally always come to fruition within a few miles, but never have I seen a 180 degree shift. Well, maybe Betsy in '65 and Elena in '85, but those were both eons ago, technologically speaking.

This from the NHC:

...EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY...

[stormhunter7]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 See Ship ZCDJ2... closet to Debby COC

[Evil Jeremy]

In the 5pm Discussion, the NHC said that one reason it chose to side with the Euro was because more than half of the GFS ensembles went that route as well.

Well, a majority of the 18z GFS ensembles are tightly clustered in Central Florida now. Lets see how the NHC reacts at 11: