ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012102012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If it means anything the canadian model does not put florida out of the woods.

We know canadians are always headed to florida this time of year.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 60%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Florida1118]

Up to 60%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Well...that rapidly went up lol. I Was expecting maybe 40 or so.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a good analog for this may be Hurricane King of 1950 in terms of pattern? I am not saying it may follow the same track,only discussing about posibilities down the road.

[cycloneye]

Watch this bouy 42058 in Central Caribbean.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2012102018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 730W, 25, 1007, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Anticyclone is building over 99L giving it favorable conditions.

[StarmanHDB]

Anticyclone is building over 99L giving it favorable conditions.

Hey cycloneye! How will that anticyclone affect steering on the emerging system?

[Sanibel]

Obviously developing.


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[cycloneye]

Anticyclone is building over 99L giving it favorable conditions.

Hey cycloneye! How will that anticyclone affect steering on the emerging system?

It depends on how strong it gets as the trough to the north in a few days may grab it that way or if it does not turn into a hurricane,it may linger in the Caribbean. How far west it goes before it goes north or northeast is the enigma at this time.

[CrazyC83]

Potential analog could be the 1924 hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Potential analog could be the 1924 hurricane?

Maybe on track but on intensity we have to see how things evolve to see if it is going to get stronger than Hurricane 11. The maximun intensity was 70kts.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[wxman57]

I would disagree with development chances at 60% between now and Monday afternoon, as I don't think any TD will form until maybe Tuesday. But I would say that chances of development beyond 48 hrs are in the 80-90% range. I don't think this system will produce any rain as far west as Florida, as a deepening trof along the East U.S. Coast past FL all the way to the NW Caribbean should keep this system east of Florida. Heaviest rain may hit Haiti and the DR next Wed/Thu

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis.

[Caribwxgirl]

18z Surface Analysis.

[]http://oi46.tinypic.com/2mfgi29.jpg[/]

What's the X stand for?

[Floridaman]

18z Surface Analysis.

[]http://oi46.tinypic.com/2mfgi29.jpg[/]

What's the X stand for?

X stands for the current location of the storm.

[wxman57]

18z Surface Analysis.

[]http://oi46.tinypic.com/2mfgi29.jpg[/]

What's the X stand for?

The "X" to the left of the low center indicates an expected location of the low, along with an indicated future pressure of 1006mb. The current location of the low is the smaller "X" to the right of the low (with a pressure of 1007mb).

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis.

[]http://oi46.tinypic.com/2mfgi29.jpg[/]

What's the X stand for?

They answered your question. Both are right.

[Caribwxgirl]

Thanks guys it was the big X info I was after glad to know what they both mean though.

[cycloneye]

99L doesn't look too convective at this time (6:55 PM EDT) but we have to consider is D-MIN time. The structure continues to look good though.

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