EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

about 100mph with reduction.
000
URPN15 KNHC 151724
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 28 20120615
171630 1439N 09544W 6967 03083 9994 +070 +070 135064 065 051 007 01
171700 1438N 09545W 6972 03072 9996 +070 +070 137066 070 052 012 01
171730 1437N 09547W 6966 03073 9981 +070 +070 137073 075 054 007 01
171800 1436N 09548W 6966 03065 9971 +070 +070 133068 071 054 007 01
171830 1434N 09549W 6967 03055 9963 +080 +080 133074 077 057 007 01
171900 1433N 09550W 6966 03047 9946 +080 +080 133081 085 060 006 01
171930 1432N 09552W 6962 03038 9923 +085 +080 131086 087 061 004 00
172000 1431N 09553W 6966 03015 9895 +093 +078 129090 092 063 006 00
172030 1430N 09554W 6963 03007 9877 +094 +090 133086 089 067 010 00
172100 1428N 09555W 6962 02986 9840 +099 +096 134069 084 073 006 00
172130 1427N 09557W 6966 02973 9822 +116 +075 139043 050 072 003 00
172200 1426N 09558W 6970 02963 9802 +130 +066 135039 041 060 001 00
172230 1425N 09559W 6967 02963 9797 +128 +078 135036 039 045 000 00
172300 1423N 09600W 6969 02959 9778 +144 +069 137027 034 035 002 00
172330 1422N 09602W 6964 02960 9776 +142 +065 138019 023 032 000 00
172400 1421N 09603W 6969 02953 9774 +144 +066 143014 017 030 001 00
172430 1420N 09604W 6965 02953 9769 +143 +064 137010 012 025 002 00
172500 1418N 09606W 6966 02952 9768 +142 +069 108004 007 024 001 00
172530 1417N 09607W 6967 02951 9769 +141 +067 037003 003 023 002 00
172600 1417N 09607W 6967 02951 9772 +140 +072 348007 010 023 001 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

90kt FL, 977 mb

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151734
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 29 20120615
172630 1414N 09610W 6967 02951 9771 +141 +064 322012 013 023 001 00
172700 1413N 09611W 6967 02953 9772 +143 +053 311013 014 029 000 00
172730 1412N 09612W 6970 02949 9773 +142 +073 300018 021 050 001 00
172800 1411N 09614W 6965 02962 9777 +139 +091 294033 036 062 006 00
172830 1409N 09615W 6967 02959 9799 +110 +110 304040 043 063 009 01
172900 1408N 09616W 6973 02970 9834 +110 +110 306049 052 062 008 01
172930 1407N 09617W 6968 02987 9868 +090 +090 317064 068 062 005 01
173000 1406N 09618W 6967 03008 9891 +080 +080 314066 068 062 003 01
173030 1405N 09620W 6964 03024 9903 +080 +080 318066 069 064 009 01
173100 1403N 09621W 6939 03056 //// +078 //// 321059 066 067 015 01
173130 1402N 09622W 6981 03017 //// +071 //// 328057 060 070 013 01
173200 1401N 09624W 6961 03052 //// +073 //// 321060 062 070 014 05
173230 1400N 09625W 6961 03062 //// +071 //// 323064 066 066 024 01
173300 1358N 09626W 6961 03067 //// +066 //// 318059 067 065 021 01
173330 1357N 09627W 6967 03076 //// +066 //// 316059 064 063 021 01
173400 1356N 09629W 6962 03084 //// +058 //// 303053 057 061 022 01
173430 1355N 09630W 6980 03064 //// +046 //// 287058 060 058 024 01
173500 1354N 09631W 6962 03092 //// +048 //// 292058 058 055 020 01
173530 1353N 09632W 6967 03094 //// +053 //// 301056 058 055 015 01
173600 1352N 09633W 6974 03090 0025 +070 +070 298056 057 053 010 01
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

Recon also scheduled for tomorrow

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z ON TROPICAL STORM
CARLOTTA WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
JWP

Here is the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Carlotta has completed one of the most fantastic wrap-around stages I've seen. This confirmed the RI and the speed in which the eye popped out was crazy. This could be explosive and my guess for intensity right now is 90 knots and should be major when recon arrives. Everything was in place for this. And please don't tell me land interaction (northern half) is already starting before recon arrives .

Well, updating the forecast. I feel much more confident that at least minimum RI is going to occur in Carlotta, and i think recon will find a lot stronger system than it is now. On my phone, so sorry for any errors. I'm going to up the forecast to 40 to 45 knots now, only issues I still see is land interaction. 40 to 45 knots puts the intensity at 95 or 100 knots by 11 pm EDT tonight.

Sounds about right, recon better get in there ASAP though because Carlotta is heading right towards the Mexican coast .

They will likely find a 85kt hurricane at the least. hmm maybe it will be the first TS to major hurricane jump lol

It won't be that but what could happen is an unbelievable jump in intensity from the 11 am to 5 pm one. It could be 65 knots to 100 knots or more within 6 hours!!!!

Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?

*Cut*

Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.

The above is solely my opinion and not a professional forecast.

No, your not the only one. Raw Dvorak at 6.1 is insane. That is all.

Eye still looks too ragged to be considered a MH at this point... But nonetheless: The EPAC, when we do it, we go all the way.

There has been category 4 hurricanes in the past without a visible eye so too ragged doesn't count .

Latest:

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151748
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN......


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...145 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO
10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO
200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

I was thinking 80 knts for the 18z, but 75 knts is okay,

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN12 KNHC 151744
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012
A. 15/17:25:20Z
B. 14 deg 18 min N
096 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2912 m
D. 73 kt
E. 046 deg 16 nm
F. 129 deg 92 kt
G. 046 deg 19 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 8 C / 3049 m
J. 15 C / 3048 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 17:20:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 047 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151744
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 30 20120615
173630 1350N 09634W 6968 03101 0026 +070 +070 294053 055 050 008 01
173700 1349N 09635W 6964 03109 0020 +070 +070 296048 051 052 009 01
173730 1348N 09637W 6967 03106 0025 +070 +070 299048 049 053 013 01
173800 1347N 09638W 6966 03111 0033 +070 +070 302049 050 057 015 01
173830 1346N 09639W 6965 03112 0034 +070 +070 303053 054 058 015 01
173900 1345N 09640W 6982 03094 //// +062 //// 303055 056 055 016 01
173930 1343N 09641W 6964 03123 //// +060 //// 302055 058 056 013 01
174000 1342N 09643W 6969 03116 //// +060 //// 299048 054 056 014 01
174030 1341N 09644W 6969 03118 //// +062 //// 300044 047 053 016 01
174100 1340N 09645W 6969 03117 //// +062 //// 299041 041 051 014 01
174130 1339N 09646W 6967 03124 0051 +070 +070 290041 041 050 010 01
174200 1338N 09647W 6964 03129 0050 +070 +070 287039 042 049 007 01
174230 1336N 09649W 6971 03127 0057 +070 +070 279036 039 048 006 01
174300 1335N 09650W 6972 03130 0067 +070 +070 266033 034 047 007 01
174330 1334N 09651W 6970 03129 //// +050 //// 260036 037 046 010 01
174400 1333N 09652W 6967 03138 0088 +050 +050 262036 036 047 008 01
174430 1332N 09653W 6970 03137 0079 +060 +060 260035 036 046 006 01
174500 1331N 09654W 6970 03139 0067 +069 +063 258037 037 044 004 00
174530 1330N 09655W 6963 03150 0071 +069 +062 255036 036 043 005 00
174600 1329N 09656W 6967 03144 0064 +075 +060 251034 035 041 006 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151754
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 31 20120615
174630 1328N 09657W 6970 03144 0065 +078 +059 250031 033 042 006 00
174700 1327N 09659W 6965 03151 0067 +076 +061 253029 030 042 005 00
174730 1326N 09700W 6971 03145 0067 +078 +059 267030 034 041 002 00
174800 1324N 09701W 6968 03150 0060 +085 +059 277031 034 042 002 00
174830 1323N 09702W 6969 03149 0064 +081 +062 271029 030 041 004 00
174900 1322N 09703W 6966 03154 0061 +084 +063 271028 029 041 005 00
174930 1321N 09704W 6965 03154 0064 +082 +064 277026 028 041 004 00
175000 1320N 09706W 6970 03149 0075 +073 +066 277025 025 041 005 00
175030 1319N 09707W 6966 03154 0077 +072 +067 279024 025 040 007 00
175100 1317N 09708W 6966 03154 0074 +074 +065 283021 023 040 007 00
175130 1316N 09709W 6970 03151 0076 +073 +064 288023 024 039 005 00
175200 1315N 09710W 6963 03156 0073 +075 +061 282027 028 038 004 00
175230 1314N 09712W 6957 03166 0075 +075 +055 273028 028 035 001 00
175300 1312N 09713W 6967 03154 0076 +075 +062 282026 027 034 001 00
175330 1311N 09715W 6969 03152 0076 +075 +062 289026 026 033 001 00
175400 1309N 09716W 6966 03154 0074 +075 +061 289026 026 032 000 00
175430 1308N 09718W 6962 03160 0075 +075 +059 289025 026 033 000 00
175500 1306N 09719W 6969 03152 0079 +073 +061 292025 026 033 000 00
175530 1305N 09721W 6972 03147 0076 +074 +061 295026 026 032 000 00
175600 1303N 09722W 6963 03161 0076 +076 +060 294026 026 032 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

92 kt FL winds = 83 kt at the surface, but with an SFMR of only 73 so far (supporting a 75 kt intensity), it is best to be a bit conservative as we wait for more data.

[Cyclenall]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAGGED AND
ELONGATED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

This is extremely confusing. What's being described here is not the Carlotta I'm looking at. And I don't know how RI can be less likely when its going on right now.

This is the text that doesn't make sense and it still doesn't.

Recon also scheduled for tomorrow

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z ON TROPICAL STORM
CARLOTTA WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
JWP

Here is the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

That's not good. If it goes back offshore it won't be sampled .

90kt FL, 977 mb

I made the previous post 45 minutes beforehand so I didn't know recon was that close but its a good thing its there now. That value is lower than I expected but something tells me a different quadrant could sport higher winds (just look at IR).

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151804
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 32 20120615
175630 1302N 09724W 6967 03155 0072 +080 +051 294026 026 031 000 00
175700 1300N 09725W 6970 03152 0074 +078 +053 295025 026 032 000 03
175730 1259N 09726W 6965 03157 0072 +079 +049 286023 025 /// /// 03
175800 1257N 09724W 6967 03154 0070 +080 +052 280022 023 /// /// 03
175830 1257N 09722W 6965 03161 0074 +080 +050 277021 022 030 001 03
175900 1258N 09720W 6965 03162 0076 +080 +047 275023 023 033 000 00
175930 1258N 09718W 6967 03161 0078 +080 +047 271023 024 034 000 00
180000 1258N 09715W 6968 03161 0079 +080 +047 270024 024 034 000 00
180030 1258N 09713W 6967 03162 0079 +080 +045 274025 025 033 001 00
180100 1259N 09710W 6966 03163 0079 +080 +046 274026 026 034 000 00
180130 1259N 09708W 6966 03163 0078 +080 +045 272027 027 034 000 00
180200 1259N 09705W 6970 03158 0075 +084 +046 267026 026 035 000 00
180230 1259N 09705W 6970 03158 0072 +084 +051 264026 026 035 000 00
180300 1259N 09700W 6967 03160 0071 +083 +052 264027 027 037 000 00
180330 1300N 09658W 6967 03160 0073 +082 +056 264027 027 037 000 00
180400 1300N 09656W 6965 03161 0074 +080 +056 264027 027 038 001 00
180430 1300N 09653W 6966 03160 0069 +084 +052 265027 028 038 001 00
180500 1300N 09651W 6966 03160 0069 +084 +054 262028 028 038 000 00
180530 1300N 09648W 6967 03157 0068 +085 +051 263028 029 038 000 00
180600 1301N 09646W 6969 03155 0070 +084 +052 262028 029 039 001 00
$$
;

[senorpepr]

Recon also scheduled for tomorrow

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z ON TROPICAL STORM
CARLOTTA WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
JWP

Here is the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Recon is not scheduled for tomorrow.

Tomorrow's schedule says "negative reconnaissance requirement." The only mission schedule, as noted in section 3, is the current mission.

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151814
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 33 20120615
180630 1301N 09643W 6967 03157 0073 +080 +054 263028 029 039 001 00
180700 1301N 09641W 6966 03158 0073 +080 +051 264028 029 039 001 00
180730 1301N 09638W 6965 03158 0072 +079 +054 262029 030 039 000 00
180800 1301N 09636W 6967 03156 0070 +080 +056 262029 029 040 000 00
180830 1302N 09633W 6966 03155 0062 +086 +049 257032 034 041 001 00
180900 1302N 09631W 6966 03155 0058 +090 +047 254035 036 041 002 00
180930 1302N 09628W 6968 03154 0064 +086 +050 252037 038 042 003 00
181000 1302N 09626W 6967 03155 0069 +081 +057 244038 038 042 004 00
181030 1302N 09623W 6967 03152 0055 +091 +047 243040 041 041 002 00
181100 1302N 09621W 6967 03151 0056 +088 +050 243040 042 041 004 00
181130 1303N 09618W 6967 03151 0064 +080 +062 245039 039 041 004 00
181200 1303N 09616W 6967 03147 0055 +087 +053 241041 042 040 003 00
181230 1303N 09613W 6967 03151 0050 +095 +037 236042 043 038 001 00
181300 1303N 09611W 6967 03152 0049 +096 +045 234041 042 038 001 00
181330 1303N 09608W 6966 03154 0051 +094 +048 235042 043 040 000 00
181400 1304N 09606W 6969 03151 0058 +090 +048 234042 042 039 000 00
181430 1304N 09603W 6967 03155 0058 +091 +047 231043 043 038 000 00
181500 1304N 09601W 6966 03155 0057 +092 +040 229044 045 038 001 00
181530 1304N 09558W 6967 03154 0056 +090 +049 228045 045 037 001 00
181600 1304N 09555W 6966 03156 0056 +091 +052 225045 045 037 001 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151824
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 34 20120615
181630 1304N 09555W 6966 03156 0056 +092 +049 226045 046 035 001 00
181700 1305N 09551W 6966 03157 0055 +094 +045 228046 046 035 000 00
181730 1305N 09548W 6967 03156 0054 +096 +035 231047 049 036 000 00
181800 1305N 09545W 6966 03157 0052 +100 +019 231049 049 036 000 00
181830 1305N 09543W 6970 03155 0054 +098 +024 229048 049 036 000 00
181900 1305N 09540W 6965 03162 0055 +097 +024 230048 049 035 000 00
181930 1306N 09538W 6967 03158 0051 +100 +025 229050 050 036 000 00
182000 1306N 09535W 6967 03157 0056 +098 +024 228048 050 035 000 00
182030 1306N 09533W 6967 03158 0059 +096 +023 226048 049 034 001 00
182100 1306N 09530W 6966 03161 0063 +094 +031 226047 048 034 001 00
182130 1306N 09528W 6967 03160 0063 +094 +032 227046 047 034 000 00
182200 1307N 09525W 6967 03163 0067 +091 +038 226046 047 034 000 00
182230 1307N 09523W 6967 03162 0070 +088 +040 226045 045 032 000 00
182300 1307N 09520W 6968 03160 0068 +089 +037 227045 046 032 000 00
182330 1307N 09518W 6969 03160 0068 +089 +035 226045 047 032 000 00
182400 1307N 09515W 6965 03164 0064 +095 +013 225046 047 034 001 00
182430 1307N 09513W 6970 03160 0063 +096 +011 222046 046 033 001 00
182500 1308N 09510W 6967 03166 0065 +095 +013 221046 046 032 000 00
182530 1308N 09508W 6968 03162 0063 +096 +019 219046 046 031 000 00
182600 1308N 09505W 6970 03160 0061 +098 +023 218045 046 030 000 03
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

75 knots, 979 mbars

EP, 03, 2012061518, , BEST, 0, 145N, 962W, 75, 979, HU

[Aric Dunn]

heading back for SE NW pass. should be the highest winds.

000
URPN15 KNHC 151834
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 35 20120615
182630 1310N 09503W 6967 ///// //// +096 +024 216045 046 031 001 22
182700 1311N 09501W 6974 ///// //// +092 +027 214044 045 028 000 23
182730 1313N 09500W 6971 03173 0080 +096 +028 213047 047 030 002 03
182800 1316N 09459W 6975 03170 0081 +095 +025 214043 046 /// /// 03
182830 1318N 09500W 6973 ///// 9032 +098 +019 217040 041 /// /// 36
182900 1318N 09502W 6963 03171 9910 +095 +017 220040 041 029 000 00
182930 1318N 09504W 6969 03165 0072 +092 +028 218040 041 029 001 03
183000 1320N 09506W 6963 03168 0073 +086 +045 216040 040 027 001 00
183030 1321N 09507W 6966 03164 0073 +085 +051 213039 040 030 000 00
183100 1323N 09509W 6967 03158 0074 +081 +057 211039 040 030 000 00
183130 1324N 09510W 6969 03158 0069 +087 +050 212042 042 030 000 00
183200 1326N 09512W 6976 03152 0070 +087 +052 214043 045 030 000 00
183230 1327N 09513W 6963 03159 0061 +090 +043 211046 046 029 000 00
183300 1329N 09515W 6966 03163 0078 +081 +050 212045 045 029 000 00
183330 1330N 09516W 6967 03162 0070 +087 +050 214047 048 030 002 00
183400 1331N 09517W 6967 03161 0067 +090 +049 213048 048 031 001 00
183430 1332N 09519W 6966 03163 0069 +089 +048 215048 048 031 000 00
183500 1334N 09520W 6974 03152 0071 +086 +046 220048 048 033 000 00
183530 1335N 09521W 6965 03160 0074 +081 +043 223051 052 032 000 00
183600 1336N 09522W 6967 03156 0067 +086 +041 222051 053 032 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Looks as though its starting to bomb out. winds 80kts at 1003 mb

000
URPN15 KNHC 151844
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 36 20120615
183630 1337N 09524W 6969 03154 0065 +086 +052 220051 052 034 001 00
183700 1339N 09525W 6967 03155 0059 +089 +056 219052 052 035 002 00
183730 1340N 09526W 6967 03154 0056 +090 +059 215051 052 036 004 00
183800 1341N 09528W 6967 03154 0052 +092 +058 214051 052 037 004 00
183830 1343N 09529W 6966 03152 0051 +092 +058 213052 053 039 005 00
183900 1344N 09530W 6969 03149 0048 +095 +057 208053 054 040 006 00
183930 1345N 09532W 6966 03152 0057 +088 +059 203055 055 041 007 00
184000 1347N 09533W 6969 03149 0069 +078 +063 202055 057 044 007 00
184030 1348N 09534W 6969 03148 0063 +081 +062 202058 059 044 007 00
184100 1349N 09536W 6968 03145 0071 +071 +065 200057 058 048 009 00
184130 1351N 09537W 6965 03146 0072 +068 +067 200061 061 049 010 00
184200 1352N 09539W 6967 03140 0058 +076 +063 201065 068 052 009 00
184230 1354N 09540W 6970 03137 0073 +060 +060 202069 070 053 012 01
184300 1355N 09541W 6960 03139 0064 +060 +060 200068 070 055 011 01
184330 1356N 09543W 6967 03132 0068 +060 +060 201063 068 056 011 01
184400 1358N 09544W 6971 03126 0060 +070 +070 212064 066 057 010 01
184430 1359N 09545W 6972 03117 //// +058 //// 212067 069 058 010 01
184500 1400N 09547W 6968 03112 0047 +070 +070 212071 074 060 008 01
184530 1401N 09548W 6970 03109 0040 +070 +070 214080 082 062 008 01
184600 1403N 09549W 6968 03103 0030 +070 +070 215075 081 064 010 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to 975 so far winds still 11kts so 973mb maybe. winds will come up soon.

000
URPN15 KNHC 151854
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 37 20120615
184630 1404N 09550W 6959 03104 //// +057 //// 212074 076 062 012 01
184700 1405N 09552W 6969 03087 //// +058 //// 213074 076 069 023 01
184730 1407N 09553W 6972 03075 //// +058 //// 221078 082 070 025 01
184800 1408N 09554W 6961 03078 //// +063 //// 226073 081 071 020 01
184830 1409N 09555W 6967 03056 //// +069 //// 223069 074 074 009 01
184900 1410N 09557W 6967 03053 9939 +090 +090 225070 071 077 004 01
184930 1411N 09558W 6965 03043 9911 +101 +099 229068 072 078 007 00
185000 1412N 09559W 6969 03025 9893 +100 +100 234076 079 079 008 01
185030 1414N 09600W 6946 03028 //// +086 //// 228069 084 085 013 01
185100 1415N 09601W 6968 02990 9844 +111 +101 229048 065 087 011 00
185130 1416N 09603W 6959 02993 9821 +126 +080 237044 045 085 004 03
185200 1417N 09604W 6966 02977 9813 +126 +083 237039 043 060 002 03
185230 1419N 09605W 6965 02974 9809 +125 +077 238034 037 047 000 00
185300 1420N 09606W 6961 02974 9801 +129 +071 238030 033 038 000 00
185330 1421N 09607W 6967 02962 9779 +145 +056 236026 029 031 000 00
185400 1423N 09608W 6963 02962 9773 +146 +062 231019 025 030 000 00
185430 1424N 09609W 6961 02964 9766 +150 +064 222013 017 025 000 00
185500 1425N 09611W 6962 02960 9766 +149 +066 211012 013 024 001 00
185530 1427N 09612W 6965 02957 9765 +151 +064 212011 011 025 000 00
185600 1428N 09614W 6961 02962 9757 +155 +064 215007 011 026 000 00
$$
;