ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

Special TWO issued:

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.



Uhhh. Well you get the point.

[Aric Dunn]

It is on its way for sure. there is a lot of sal in the area noted by the mid level flat grey clouds surrounding it. however it has a area of deep moisture associated with it which should allow it to maintain and likely develop into a TD sometime late tomorrow or on friday.

[FutureEM]

I wouldn't be surprised to wake up with a TD tomorrow at this rate.

[Gustywind]

Aric if it developps (should it verifies first!), do you think that the Lesser Antilles could be dealing with a possible threat?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Funny how the Hurricane Center has the 70 percent weather system colored yellow and the 0 percent one colored in red he he.... I am sure they will correct this shortly...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric if it developps (should it verifies first!), do you think that the Lesser Antilles could be dealing with a possible threat?

Given the ridging in place and forecast to build west... it is a higher than normal chance the islands will be affected by it even if it develops and deepens. I dont think it will make to hurricane at this point before the islands. But I also cant rule it out it really depends on the placement of the TUTT or shear axis as it approached the islands.. right it appears that it will be in a least marginal environment throughout. so we just have to watch the development of some key features.

[RL3AO]

Aric, does the shear situation look any different near the islands then it was for Ernesto?

[FutureEM]

I wouldn't be surprised to wake up with a TD tomorrow at this rate.

[pricetag56]

i come on here an actually post every blue moon but i always read the material in regards to this its intersting how this flew under the radar and conditions in the MDR havent been all that bad aside from the dust this cv season is off to a faster start than the last couple years

[Gustywind]

Aric if it developps (should it verifies first!), do you think that the Lesser Antilles could be dealing with a possible threat?

Given the ridging in place and forecast to build west... it is a higher than normal chance the islands will be affected by it even if it develops and deepens. I dont think it will make to hurricane at this point before the islands. But I also cant rule it out it really depends on the placement of the TUTT or shear axis as it approached the islands.. right it appears that it will be in a least marginal environment throughout. so we just have to watch the development of some key features.

Thanks to you... so we have to keep an eye on this, something is cooking not so far from to the Leewards? Not good news as we're drifting near the weekend an people are monitoring our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe who finished only... Sunday. Let's wait and see carefully what could happens during the next 24-72H.

[ROCK]

Gordon was my dark horse this season. Time to pay attention islanders for sure.

[ROCK]

00Z GFS takes it right thru the islands in 5 days but doesnt really develope it...I wouldnt be to concerned with that since it didnt even see it a few days ago. Looks carib bound.....IMO


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SouthFLTropics]

That's kinda funny Rock...I've been thinking that Earnhardt was going to be the dark horse this season...

Oh, you mean the storm named Gordon, not the racer. Gotcha! On a more serious note I think that everyone should be paying attention to this one. Depending on the evolution of the TUTT and the timing of the interaction we could have a serious player on our hands.

[Rgv20]

Another Caribbean threat? 0zGFS thru 96hrs has it tracking in the East/Central Caribbean.

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


00Z BAMMS package.....TVCN right under the main islands....GFS ensembles sort of split but most are carib bound...

[ROCK]

given its looks tonight....I would say Game On!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

And look at that trough swinging through the US Midwest. That looks pretty stout...could swing Gordy off to the North at some point.

[floridasun78]

Aric if it developps (should it verifies first!), do you think that the Lesser Antilles could be dealing with a possible threat?

Given the ridging in place and forecast to build west... it is a higher than normal chance the islands will be affected by it even if it develops and deepens. I dont think it will make to hurricane at this point before the islands. But I also cant rule it out it really depends on the placement of the TUTT or shear axis as it approached the islands.. right it appears that it will be in a least marginal environment throughout. so we just have to watch the development of some key features.

Thanks to you... so we have to keep an eye on this, something is cooking not so far from to the Leewards? Not good news as we're drifting near the weekend an people are monitoring our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe who finished only... Sunday. Let's wait and see carefully what could happens during the next 24-72H.

are people looking at weather report about 92l?

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cheezyWXguy]

I cant believe how well this system organized today. After battling SAL for most of its journey, its also developed quite a moisture envelope too, according to WV imagery. Conditions probably arent going to be perfect but should allow for slow or moderate intensification in my opinion.