ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Good news Gusty. Hopefully it will stay weak and keep moving at a good clip to reduce the chance of flooding. Sometimes these weak storms do more flooding damage than the well organized ones.

Thanks to you . Looks like we're blessed here after Irene, Maria and Isaac . Hope that those who could be in the path of Isaac will be blessed too. Prayers for you.
Whereas if we have espaced from the cyclonic effects of this weak TS, since this morning we experience numerous strong showers with gusts..
For info, Meteo-France back off the red vigilance to an orange vigilance for a risk of strong showers tstorms and rough sea.

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Very good news here. Pretty tranquil night! The red vigilance have been canceled since yesterday night because of the cyclonics effects have spared the butterfly island. Whereas since 6AM, we have nice rain showers from the outers bands with moderate to sometimes strong gusts!

Right now, given Meteo-France we're under an orange alert for risk of strong showers and tstorms and rough sea.

Gustywind

Great to know. All the best

thanks a lot

[KWT]

As I said earlier I'd not pay that much attention to the 'center' at the moment, because I'm not convinced there is a 'center' per say but several circulations at varying levels that are not that well stacked at all.

Its hard to imagine the circulation not getting set-up near the deeper convection eventually.

[ROCK]

So according to that position it is nearly 1.5 degrees further South than the previous point? Interesting but with so many vorts I don't know how accurate that is or if it is really moving WSW or just rotating around a vort and will soon go back N?

funny that 3 days ago Isaac was a depression a little above this lat.....so really Isaac has been moving south of west for 3 days....

[hurricanes1234]

Hi!

We have been experiencing squally weather here in Trinidad since around 10:40 pm last night. Just 2 hours before it began last night, we noticed a very bright lightning display with flashes/bolts every couple of seconds. Then, it came overhead and the squally weather began - first, it became very breezy outside and less than a minute later, the rainfall began. It was quite heavy, particularly in the beginning. There was lightning and thunder, as the cloudtops were now overhead. Although the thunder was minimal, the lightning flashes were the brightest I ever saw. About 45 minutes after the rain began, a transformer in our area blew, so we lost electricity for about 90 minutes. It came back after 1:00 AM but the rainfall started back only three hours later, at a few minutes past 4:00 AM. Thank God, though, the current did not go again. It is now almost 8:00 AM and thunder is rolling virtually non-stop, occasionally setting off a few car alarms. So far, no major damage has been caused by this, but there are reports of a tree falling a few miles from where I live.

[TheBurn]

07:15am EDT WV_Enhanced
A glance at the set-up...

[Weatherboy1]

I must say, in all my years of watching the tropics I don't think I have ever seen a system look this good on satellite and be only a 40 mph TS! I know how ir sat can be tricky but he's looked darn good on visible too. Crazy! With Isaac slowing and a turn to the WNW or NW predicted soon, maybe he will finally get his act together and ramp up!

[wxman57]

I still think it's heading for the FL Panhandle between Apalachicola and Pensacola. Going to miss the DR/Haiti to the south and miss the eastern part of Cuba. More westward than the current NHC forecast for the next 2 days then northward turn. May not be too bad for the FL Peninsula. They're not out of the woods yet, though.

[RL3AO]

Amazing outflow. Looks like a cat 1 hurricane on WV.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
The new vortex message shows the center at around 15 & 64 and that makes sense when you see the first visible loops.

[drezee]

I still think it's heading for the FL Panhandle between Apalachicola and Pensacola. Going to miss the DR/Haiti to the south and miss the eastern part of Cuba. More westward than the current NHC forecast for the next 2 days then northward turn. May not be too bad for the FL Peninsula. They're not out of the woods yet, though.

Agreed, but that is not good for the US. Highest TCHP south of Cuba and less land interaction prior to landfall.

[marciacubed]

Hi!

We have been experiencing squally weather here in Trinidad since around 10:40 pm last night. Just 2 hours before it began last night, we noticed a very bright lightning display with flashes/bolts every couple of seconds. Then, it came overhead and the squally weather began - first, it became very breezy outside and less than a minute later, the rainfall began. It was quite heavy, particularly in the beginning. There was lightning and thunder, as the cloudtops were now overhead. Although the thunder was minimal, the lightning flashes were the brightest I ever saw. About 45 minutes after the rain began, a transformer in our area blew, so we lost electricity for about 90 minutes. It came back after 1:00 AM but the rainfall started back only three hours later, at a few minutes past 4:00 AM. Thank God, though, the current did not go again. It is now almost 8:00 AM and thunder is rolling virtually non-stop, occasionally setting off a few car alarms. So far, no major damage has been caused by this, but there are reports of a tree falling a few miles from where I live.

Thanks for the information and stay safe

[jlauderdal]

So according to that position it is nearly 1.5 degrees further South than the previous point? Interesting but with so many vorts I don't know how accurate that is or if it is really moving WSW or just rotating around a vort and will soon go back N?

funny that 3 days ago Isaac was a depression a little above this lat.....so really Isaac has been moving south of west for 3 days....

reminds me of ike, never made the turn and kept plowing south of west...we dodged a big one in sofla with that track

[NDG]

Like forecaster Stewart mentioned this morning, the GFS, ECMWF & UKMWT did a nice job last night of forecasting the H85 vorticity to move SW during the night, so why question their forecast for the next 12-24 hrs of a more northerly track towards Hispaniola.

[KBBOCA]

I must say, in all my years of watching the tropics I don't think I have ever seen a system look this good on satellite and be only a 40 mph TS! I know how ir sat can be tricky but he's looked darn good on visible too. Crazy! With Isaac slowing and a turn to the WNW or NW predicted soon, maybe he will finally get his act together and ramp up!

Weatherboy, you took the words out of my mouth! Looking at that WV image just posted, if I were just tuning in, I'd think Isaac was a Cat3 monster or something.

I really hope and pray he proves to be much scarier in pictures than reality! May he never get his act together and remain an underachiever. We'd miss the "thrill" of watching a major storm form, but millions would be glad to be spared the agony of his landfall.

[KWT]

I still think it's heading for the FL Panhandle between Apalachicola and Pensacola. Going to miss the DR/Haiti to the south and miss the eastern part of Cuba. More westward than the current NHC forecast for the next 2 days then northward turn. May not be too bad for the FL Peninsula. They're not out of the woods yet, though.

Yep I agree, I'm finding it really hard to see this one hitting Haiti now due to the relocation of the center. Of course it may lift up somewhat from this point on but the circulations still struggling to keep itself going. Still something around 15.5N does look reasonable given recon finally found a fairly tight wind shift.

It does look great on WV, its surely only a matter of time before it sorts itself out...

[cycloneye]

wxman57, you think that as Issac stays weak,it may not feel too much the break in the ridge?

[CronkPSU]

some tweets from the last 5 minutes

@BigJoeBastardi

Study Pacific typhoon genesis. The ones that become monsters usually are large with competing centers first. Very similar here




1m Jim Cantore Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

Entire NOAA/USAF arsenal going at #isaac today 4data on storm structure &synoptic surrounds. Data goes in2 models and my goalposts come Fri.




1m HRD/AOML/NOAA HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA

@HRD_AOML_NOAA @eastd, messy as in a disorganized tropical storm.

[SouthDadeFish]

Like forecaster Stewart mentioned this morning, the GFS, ECMWF & UKMWT did a nice job last night of forecasting the H85 vorticity to move SW during the night, so why question their forecast for the next 12-24 hrs of a more northerly track towards Hispaniola.

Because in order for the 06Z GFS to verify the centers will be vertically aligned and much farther N in three hours (by 15Z). I just don't see it happening that quick. The NOAA flight data is showing the storm is still severely tilted/decoupled.

[hurricanes1234]

Now, I said that there was no major damage. However, I was wrong. Listening to the news, I am hearing that the south and east portions of Trinidad are underwater. We, in the west, experienced the less intense half of Isaac's rainband, but the south and east portions of the country had it a lot worse, as they were inside some reds and even a couple of greys on the AVN imagery, while the west was inside dark oranges. Although the west was experiencing less rainfall, some of us here are flooded, yet again, after August 11th's flooding.