AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.[b][/b][/quote]
still moving to the west at 20!!! ding ding....that should sound some alarms...[/quote]
But, read the highlighted, larger fonted (is that a word?) section.
This is not heading due west anymore, at least not for long.[/quote]
oh really.....well its still caught up in the low level flow that is pushing this at 20mph 270 degrees....and now it decides to relocate about 72 miles south and west.....RECON is in there...the obs are there
ATL: ISAAC - Models
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PerdidoGirl
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:PerdidoGirl wrote:So I take it that maybe it's time to stock up on supplies here in Pensacola/Perdido Key?
Yeah I'm gonna do that tomorrow and Friday...may not need them in the end. But I'm not waiting for the rush to start if it does indeed head this way.
Arrived here 5 years ago today, 23rd August, and this is the first time I've been concerned.
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meriland23
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Re: Re:
oh really.....well its still caught up in the low level flow that is pushing this at 20mph....and now it decides to relocate about 72 miles south and west.....
My thoughts exactly, and 72 miles eh? Sucker is booking it. People are denying what is blatantly being shown. People, the 2 am advisory more than likely did not catch this sudden shift.. check the 5 am and see what they say instead.
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SunnyThoughts
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
PerdidoGirl wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:PerdidoGirl wrote:So I take it that maybe it's time to stock up on supplies here in Pensacola/Perdido Key?
Yeah I'm gonna do that tomorrow and Friday...may not need them in the end. But I'm not waiting for the rush to start if it does indeed head this way.
Arrived here 5 years ago today, 23rd August, and this is the first time I've been concerned.
Well, lots to be decided yet. This reformation of the center probably will have a lot of influence on the direction once it really takes hold. And the interaction with Cuba may tear it up so bad that it can never regain any structure. We'll just have to wait and see. Should know a lot more by Friday night...once all the synoptic information being gathered by these G-Iv flights are ingested into the models too. I'm mainly just going to top off supplies the next 2 days, because I want to beat the rush of the weekend.
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meriland23
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wxman76
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Looks to me that the true center, err rotating point? is not under the convection, looks like is in between the centers IMO.
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SunnyThoughts
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meriland23
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Re:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Thanks again Meriland, and everyone else who posted model runs today. Have a good night..err, morning See you guys late in the day.
ta ta for now
yw
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meriland23
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meriland23
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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meriland23
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Well the ECM is still left of the other models heading into the Panhandle. Also gets further west along Cuba unlike some of the other runs.
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Hmmm looks like the GFS may not have the best of grips on this systems current issues and development, so not sure its going to be worth while watching this run to be honest.
Either way GFS takes this up some huge peaks between 36-48hrs which wouldn't help its cause.
Either way GFS takes this up some huge peaks between 36-48hrs which wouldn't help its cause.
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meriland23
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Looks like its ridging up Cuba for the time being at 60hrs, should get to the north of Cuba at some point.
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meriland23
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Well Issac is off Cuba at 84hrs, motion is solid WNW.
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