ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[MaryEllen71]

I think NYC and its residents are going to be in for a rude awakening

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

"Sudden wall of water" -- what's he looking for, a flash flood?! Even a hurricane storm surge builds up and doesn't happen like a wall of water.

Oh well, as some have said, maybe he's trying to step up concern and not create panic on the outset. I hope so for his sake but more importantly, for the good folks of New York City.

I wonder how many 16oz cups it will take to bail out NYC from the storm surge?

Alright ... alright. While I appreciate the clever humor of your post, WilmingtonSandbar, I think we all (including this moderator) need to re-focus on the storm threat.

[Terry]

I wouldn't want to be stuck in a highrise in NYC without power for several days. And I wouldn't want to be stuck in the traffic leaving town should the mayor order evacuations later tomorrow. What is the harm in leaving early tomorrow?

The residents of NYC are getting mixed/bad info from authorities. I'm on the phone right now with my fianace in Manhattan who has such a complacent attitude. All I'm hearing is "it's just going to be like Irene, just a bit of wind and rain".
Being a resident of Florida and having gone through several storms it's so frustrating.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

On another weather blog, current Nam through +18 is further east and weaker with less pronounced phase? Any of you following this run?




This is not an official forecast. See NHC.

[KBBOCA]

That has to be a joke. Have you seen the wave heights off the coast from FL to NYC? No way they are taking that route.

An interesting Press release about a Carnival Cruise that was supposed to depart NYC on Monday, which was posted on another weather board:

CARNIVAL MIRACLE
OCTOBER 29, 2012
October 27, 2012

We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cruise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28.

Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90.

In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then.

Below is the revised itinerary:
DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART
SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM
MON Fun Day @ Sea
TUE Fun Day @ Sea
WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM
FRI Fun Day @ Sea
SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM
SUN Fun Day @ Sea
Mon Fun Day @ Sea
Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM

I don't think I'd want to be on that cruise!

Afraid it's NOT a joke.
The Carnival Press Release is here:
http://www.carnival.com/core/faq.aspx#q-1284687

You know, I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone tonight. On one hand what looks to be a severe & devastating storm is barreling towards the most populated part of the U.S. on a track that could bring maximum damage...

And yet...

Cruise ships plan to sail.
NFL Football games are still scheduled.
School is still on for NYC, and Bloomberg says the Staten Island ferry will still be running on Monday. No evacs planned for NYC, etc. etc. etc.

I feel like an alien from another planet who can't seem to communicate with or understand those from the planet I've landed on. This is oh so strange.

[Tropics Guy]

People in the NorthEast need to take this VERY seriously, I live in Miami on a lake subject to tidal action, today I never saw the high tide this high before on our lake, my dock was underwater which never happens, even in Hurricane Wilma it wasn't this high. IMO the main danger will be the extensive flooding which will occur..............

TG

[kat61]

Buoy bat 31036 reports water temp at 74.5. How can Sandy fuel up with that water temp? Shouldn't she be loosing power? And moving north to cooler water temps?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

:uarrow:

"Sudden wall of water" -- what's he looking for, a flash flood?! Even a hurricane storm surge builds up and doesn't happen like a wall of water.

Oh well, as some have said, maybe he's trying to step up concern and not create panic on the outset. I hope so for his sake but more importantly, for the good folks of New York City.

I wonder how many 16oz cups it will take to bail out NYC from the storm surge?

Alright ... alright. While I appreciate the clever humor of your post, WilmingtonSandbar, I think we all (including this moderator) need to re-focus on the storm threat.

Yes sir.

[Bellarose]

I have not been here since I moved back up north from Tampa. But, I have been following this thread religously for the past few days. I have not heard RI mentioned once ( I don't think). What should we expect here? And pease don't think I am dismissing NY, just trying to prepare for me and mine. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Another set with 70+ flight level winds. It shows how large is the windfield.

015100 3004N 07337W 6959 02847 9670 +120 +054 228074 075 045 003 00
015130 3003N 07336W 6965 02844 9674 +121 +048 229075 075 046 003 00
015200 3002N 07335W 6961 02852 9676 +125 +038 230076 076 046 003 00
015230 3000N 07333W 6961 02856 9681 +124 +032 231075 076 044 002 00
015300 2959N 07332W 6960 02860 9688 +121 +031 231073 075 043 002 00
015330 2958N 07331W 6963 02860 9690 +120 +046 230071 071 043 002 00
015400 2956N 07329W 6960 02866 9696 +118 +049 230069 070 042 002 00

[kat61]

That has to be a joke. Have you seen the wave heights off the coast from FL to NYC? No way they are taking that route.

An interesting Press release about a Carnival Cruise that was supposed to depart NYC on Monday, which was posted on another weather board:

CARNIVAL MIRACLE
OCTOBER 29, 2012
October 27, 2012

We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

Moderators, cut me off but sounds like a Titanic adventure to me!

We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cruise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28.

Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90.

In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then.

Below is the revised itinerary:
DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART
SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM
MON Fun Day @ Sea
TUE Fun Day @ Sea
WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM
FRI Fun Day @ Sea
SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM
SUN Fun Day @ Sea
Mon Fun Day @ Sea
Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM

I don't think I'd want to be on that cruise!

Afraid it's NOT a joke.
The Carnival Press Release is here:
http://www.carnival.com/core/faq.aspx#q-1284687

You know, I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone tonight. On one hand what looks to be a severe & devastating storm is barreling towards the most populated part of the U.S. on a track that could bring maximum damage...

And yet...

Cruise ships plan to sail.
NFL Football games are still scheduled.
School is still on for NYC, and Bloomberg says the Staten Island ferry will still be running on Monday. No evacs planned for NYC, etc. etc. etc.

I feel like an alien from another planet who can't seem to communicate with or understand those from the planet I've landed on. This is oh so strange.

[hurricanedude]

Hurricane Sandy is now the 2nd largest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since 1988, tied with Hurricane Lili of 1996. Sandy's tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. This is a very, very large storm, and I suspect the #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.

Top 12 Largest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

These sizes were determined using the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et. al 2006).

Name, Year: Radius of tropical storm-force winds (nautical miles)

1. Olga, 2001: 600
2. Lili, 1996, 450
2. Sandy, 2012: 450
3. Tanya 1995: 400
3. Irene 1999: 400
3. Igor, 2010: 400
4. Wilma, 2005: 375
5. Felix, 1995: 360
5. Michael, 2000 360
5. Irene, 2005: 360
5. Irene, 2005 360
5. Florence, 2006: 360

[monicaei]

Has anyone considered they might not be able to evac NYC, even just a&b?

To evac NOLA it requires 72 hrs, and a contraflow interstate plan. No way they could manage that. it would be the "parking lot" scenario we saw once here, times 100

Maybe "shelter in place" is where they are stuck at?

[x-y-no]

Buoy bat 31036 reports water temp at 74.5. How can Sandy fuel up with that water temp? Shouldn't she be loosing power? And moving north to cooler water temps?

Baroclinic effect is taking over. It's not a purely tropical system any more.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane Sandy is now the 2nd largest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since 1988, tied with Hurricane Lili of 1996. Sandy's tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. This is a very, very large storm, and I suspect the #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.

Top 12 Largest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

These sizes were determined using the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et. al 2006).

Name, Year: Radius of tropical storm-force winds (nautical miles)

1. Olga, 2001: 600
2. Lili, 1996, 450
2. Sandy, 2012: 450
3. Tanya 1995: 400
3. Irene 1999: 400
3. Igor, 2010: 400
4. Wilma, 2005: 375
5. Felix, 1995: 360
5. Michael, 2000 360
5. Irene, 2005: 360
5. Irene, 2005 360
5. Florence, 2006: 360

Actually thats old info, Sandy's winds extend 520 miles outward now, which means it has long surpassed Lili

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Here in SE NC the winds have picked up a bit. Don't know the MPH, but I can hear it pretty consistently with the windows closed. It has been raining all day, and the wind has been blowing, but haven't been able to hear it through the closed windows until the last hour.

[Portastorm]

Buoy bat 31036 reports water temp at 74.5. How can Sandy fuel up with that water temp? Shouldn't she be loosing power? And moving north to cooler water temps?

This is a good question and probably better left answered by one of our pro mets ... but, Jeff Masters in his blog mentioned earlier today that Sandy is encountering shear at higher levels of the atmosphere. That shear earlier today was somewhat preventing the storm from the usual method of generating energy (taking heat from the ocean waters). However, the storm has gobbled up some baroclinic energy (energy which can be derived by warm and cold airmasses being in close proximity) which is adding to its overall "health."

So perhaps the SSTs are less of an issue at this point.

[KBBOCA]

A commenter at Wunderground had a very helpful summary of all of today's model runs and their predicted pressures at landfall.

Please note: I have NOT verified this information personally, I'm posting the information "as is," but it was not questioned by any at Wunderground.

Today's run's minimum pressures for Sandy, in order from newest to oldest...

GFS...949/948/950/950
ECMWF...954/942
UKMET...950/949
CMC...947/946
GFDL...948/947/948
HWRF...931/930/933

For the GFS runs 18z-00z are shown, GFDL and HWRF have 12z, 6z, and 0z. Rest of the runs are 12z/00z.

UKMET, GFS, GFDL, and CMC are all in good agreement of a storm right around 950mbs, CMC being slightly more aggressive (no surprise). ECMWF and HWRF still seem overdone. Although the latest ECMWF run only had 954mbs, the poor temporal resolution means that the model is likely still showing a ~940mb storm which seems excessive. Most likely, we will see a storm in the vicinity of 950mbs, as the current consensus indicates.

[StormingB81]

You know I was thinking usually with a tropical system there is always a threat of tornado activoty...yet no talk of it...why is that?

[hurricanedude]

its not old news......450 NM is equal to 517.851 miles...which is still tied with lili and sandy....