ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

why did he weaken and why is he not strengthening for?

[KWT]

Well the NHC latest advisory suggesting due west at 270, IMO true motion probably will soon revert back to 280 or so.

Its looked good convectivly for a long time now, its just the low levels that have failed to impress, at least this time recon has found a somewhat tight looking system.

[NDG]

I think that now that the overall movement has slowed down to at least 15mph or less it will start getting its act together at the surface and a more northerly track will start.

[RL3AO]

why did he weaken and why is he not strengthening for?

Its not vertically stacked.

[hurricanefloyd5]

why did he weaken and why is he not strengthening for?

Its not vertically stacked.

ty

[KWT]

I think that now that the overall movement has slowed down to at least 15mph or less it will start getting its act together at the surface and a more northerly track will start.

Now needs 290 to hit that southern tip of Haiti from the last vortex position. I suspect it'll will start to gain latitude now, I suspect 280-285 track is about right, which would still lead it to go south of Haiti if that were to be the case.

[WeatherGuesser]

Absolutely. Isaac is so large that the potential impacts would be substantial across the entire Florida peninsula.

Unless it manages to get far enough west.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GIV takes off in a matter of hours.

[RL3AO]

[ROCK]

we are going to need a bigger plane...

[NDG]

why did he weaken and why is he not strengthening for?

Dry air at the mid levels in its NE quadrant, disrupting the surface circualtion. Also a strong easterly low to mid level jet pushing the mid level vorticity away from the surface circulation.

[artist]

Now, I said that there was no major damage. However, I was wrong. Listening to the news, I am hearing that the south and east portions of Trinidad are underwater. We, in the west, experienced the less intense half of Isaac's rainband, but the south and east portions of the country had it a lot worse, as they were inside some reds and even a couple of greys on the AVN imagery, while the west was inside dark oranges. Although the west was experiencing less rainfall, some of us here are flooded, yet again, after August 11th's flooding.

thanks for that update from Trinidad, I hope the water recedes quickly for you so recovery for all that have been hit can begin soon.

[hurricanefloyd5]

we are going to need a bigger plane...

LOL now that true

[KWT]

RL3AO, yep quite the distance still between the LLC and the MLC, that needs to be adressed for it to start strengthening.

[artist]

in degrees do you know what the difference was to the north?

[tropicwatch]

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/RL3AO/09l200520026.jpg

Kind of weird, the last center fix from HH at 1145Z and the latest advisory position don't match. The advisory said 15.7N and the HH center fix is at 15.24N.

[NDG]

I think that now that the overall movement has slowed down to at least 15mph or less it will start getting its act together at the surface and a more northerly track will start.

Now needs 290 to hit that southern tip of Haiti from the last vortex position. I suspect it'll will start to gain latitude now, I suspect 280-285 track is about right, which would still lead it to go south of Haiti if that were to be the case.

Based on the last 3 recon fixes, it has been heading on a 325 deg angle.

Edit: Exactly what the GFS has being showing. Then a more WNW heading to take place tonight.

[KWT]

I think that now that the overall movement has slowed down to at least 15mph or less it will start getting its act together at the surface and a more northerly track will start.

Now needs 290 to hit that southern tip of Haiti from the last vortex position. I suspect it'll will start to gain latitude now, I suspect 280-285 track is about right, which would still lead it to go south of Haiti if that were to be the case.

Based on the last 3 recon fixes, it has been heading on a 325 deg angle.

Don't think you can pay any attention to recon's fixes, since there are multiple centers and its clear if you look through the recon fixes that recon weren't going through the main center on the first few passes, its only about 2/3rds of thre way through the flight that they take a different route and clock the stronger center.

[ROCK]

NOAA flight plan / sampling G-IV

http://noaahrd.files.wordpress.com/2012 ... 9track.gif

of course the storm is not centered at 17N ...

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Isaac is the best and biggest looking tropical storm to ever be at 40mph. Imagine what this storm will do once we have one center?