ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 09, 2012082312, , BEST, 0, 154N, 648W, 35, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Weatherboy1]

we are going to need a bigger plane...

LOL. Nice movie quote allusion. When I looked at Isaac's satellite presentation, the recon reports, and the 5 a.m. advisory, I thought of another movie scene. The Princess Bride where they are having the debate over which cup had the poison in it. My thought: "40 mph winds with that satellite image? That's INCONCEIVABLE!"

[KWT]

What I will say is the NHC have been expecting a swingback WNW/NW based on the models solutions so we will have to see on the next set of recon passes what is happening, hopefully they will fly towards the stronger circulation this time rather than the weaker circulation they first looked at this morning related to the MLC I guess.

[Caribwxgirl]

Now, I said that there was no major damage. However, I was wrong. Listening to the news, I am hearing that the south and east portions of Trinidad are underwater. We, in the west, experienced the less intense half of Isaac's rainband, but the south and east portions of the country had it a lot worse, as they were inside some reds and even a couple of greys on the AVN imagery, while the west was inside dark oranges. Although the west was experiencing less rainfall, some of us here are flooded, yet again, after August 11th's flooding.

Oh dear I'm so sorry to hear this. I hope there will be no loss of life and all in flooded areas will be brought to safety.

[RL3AO]

Look at this dropsonde


99008 27856 23025 - Surface 1008mb - SW at 25kt
00074 27056 22526 - 1000mb (74m) - SW at 26kt
92758 21656 22532 - 925mb (758m) - SW at 32kt
85487 16835 22020 - 850mb (1487m) - SW at 20kt
70121 08815 30507 - 700mb (3121m) - NW at 7kt

Thats an impressive level of disorganization.

[brunota2003]

Those 700 mb winds are weak, they'll probably continue to weaken and we'll see the 700mb levels finally start to organize over the surface circulation.

[wxwatcher1999]

Look at this dropsonde


99008 27856 23025 - Surface 1008mb - SW at 25kt
00074 27056 22526 - 1000mb (74m) - SW at 26kt
92758 21656 22532 - 925mb (758m) - SW at 32kt
85487 16835 22020 - 850mb (1487m) - SW at 20kt
70121 08815 30507 - 700mb (3121m) - NW at 7kt

Thats an impressive level of disorganization.

I think it's going to take longer than most think for Isaac to really get going

[NDG]

What I will say is the NHC have been expecting a swingback WNW/NW based on the models solutions so we will have to see on the next set of recon passes what is happening, hopefully they will fly towards the stronger circulation this time rather than the weaker circulation they first looked at this morning related to the MLC I guess.

For me it will be hard to argue against the GFS which did very well with Ernesto in the Caribbean.

[KWT]

Those 700 mb winds are weak, they'll probably continue to weaken and we'll see the 700mb levels finally start to organize over the surface circulation.

Yeah I think the LLC is strengthening near 15.5N at the moment. I suspect a 280-285 motion will ensue from now on in, though the convection on the southern side will keep trying to tug the circulation southwards for a little while yet until it does stack totally.

[adam0983]

This storm is starting to get that classic Hurricane look to it. This storm looks like it is ready to pop and rapid intensification can begin. This storm is huge it covers from the keys to Macon Georgia. This is just an opinion.

[uhvjaguars22]

I believe we will see that northern jump soon

[ROCK]

is it moving 280-285? last advisory was west which is 270...I havent loked at RECON fixes because well what center do you fix?

[ROCK]

This storm is starting to get that classic Hurricane look to it. This storm looks like it is ready to pop and rapid intensification can begin. This storm is huge it covers from the keys to Macon Georgia. This is just an opinion.

it has so many issues to work out per RECON....not going to RI....sorry...not with these multiple vorts.

[Sanibel]

Graveyard and persistent NE shear wins. Good for Florida so far.

[Stormlover2012]

yeah it isnt looking good, this thing is really a depression..

[wxwatcher1999]

Does anyone think it will get west of Jamaica?

[uhvjaguars22]

i believe it will go right over jamaica


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

Graveyard and persistent NE shear wins. Good for Florida so far.

yep...SA dry air being drawn into a disorganized system from the south....this is going to take some time...

[KWT]

is it moving 280-285? last advisory was west which is 270...I havent loked at RECON fixes because well what center do you fix?

Overall circulation looks to be moving 280 but the center reolocation and the total mess that is the lower levels means trying to make any accurate estimate for motion of any particular center probably won't work out well.

NHC's earlier forecast was pretty much an educated guess reading between the lines based on where it 'should' be based on reports and the models forecasts, so the motion between that forecast and the latest advisory could easily be well out...

[Stormlover2012]

yep and the euro has been showing this for the last 3 days rock