ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Need recon obs and graphics, I'm heading out soon and will be unavailable to post most of the day.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041155
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120804
114530 1358N 06810W 8432 01559 0090 +170 +094 305005 005 023 000 00
114600 1357N 06811W 8429 01561 0091 +169 +095 289004 005 022 001 00
114630 1356N 06813W 8429 01562 0093 +168 +096 297004 004 023 002 00
114700 1355N 06814W 8428 01563 0093 +167 +097 311003 004 022 003 00
114730 1354N 06815W 8427 01565 0093 +170 +097 301003 003 021 001 00
114800 1353N 06817W 8432 01561 0090 +173 +098 304003 004 023 001 00
114830 1352N 06818W 8425 01566 0090 +175 +099 307004 004 020 002 00
114900 1351N 06819W 8430 01562 0091 +175 +100 314004 005 020 000 00
114930 1350N 06821W 8430 01562 0088 +175 +100 311004 004 020 001 00
115000 1349N 06822W 8430 01563 0092 +170 +101 293004 005 021 000 03
115030 1348N 06823W 8425 01568 0094 +170 +101 299005 005 /// /// 03
115100 1347N 06825W 8429 01563 0092 +171 +101 327006 006 /// /// 03
115130 1346N 06826W 8433 01561 0094 +170 +100 333005 006 /// /// 03
115200 1345N 06828W 8426 01567 0093 +172 +100 346004 005 /// /// 03
115230 1345N 06828W 8426 01567 0093 +174 +100 346004 004 /// /// 03
115300 1343N 06830W 8427 01568 0093 +173 +100 351005 006 /// /// 03
115330 1342N 06832W 8429 01565 0091 +174 +101 353007 007 /// /// 03
115400 1341N 06833W 8429 01560 0085 +175 +101 359006 007 /// /// 03
115430 1340N 06834W 8428 01557 0081 +175 +102 333006 006 /// /// 03
115500 1338N 06834W 8434 01555 0085 +174 +104 279002 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041147
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/11:34:40Z
B. 14 deg 22 min N
067 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1475 m
D. 36 kt
E. 005 deg 43 nm
F. 107 deg 41 kt
G. 011 deg 65 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 03
MAX FL WIND 41 KT N QUAD 11:13:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 322 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Buoy located about 60 miles north of center of Ernesto now - winds sustained are about 35mph (31 kts), gusting to 42mph (37kts) and pressure is 29.75".

Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean
located: 15.054 N 67.472 W

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5002/buoy.png

Oddly, recon hasn't picked up any TS winds yet.

[tolakram]

Last one for me.

[cycloneye]

Note=Let's not quote images or graphics from other posts to have the site run smoothly,thanks for the cooperation.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Noticed there are no TS winds, what's up with that?

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041206
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 13 20120804
115530 1338N 06832W 8438 01551 0084 +173 +105 216002 003 /// /// 03
115600 1339N 06830W 8422 01563 0082 +175 +104 248003 003 /// /// 03
115630 1339N 06829W 8432 01554 0083 +175 +102 265003 004 /// /// 03
115700 1339N 06827W 8429 01556 0079 +176 +101 249003 004 /// /// 03
115730 1339N 06825W 8432 01553 0081 +171 +101 226005 006 /// /// 03
115800 1339N 06823W 8429 01557 0082 +173 +101 233006 006 /// /// 03
115830 1339N 06822W 8428 01557 0079 +175 +100 219005 006 /// /// 03
115900 1339N 06820W 8434 01550 0078 +179 +100 177004 005 /// /// 03
115930 1339N 06818W 8427 01559 0080 +176 +101 183004 005 /// /// 03
120000 1339N 06817W 8432 01555 0082 +175 +100 201005 005 /// /// 03
120030 1339N 06815W 8430 01555 0081 +174 +100 208005 006 /// /// 03
120100 1339N 06813W 8429 01555 0080 +170 +100 223007 008 /// /// 03
120130 1339N 06811W 8429 01554 0080 +170 +100 230008 008 /// /// 03
120200 1339N 06810W 8429 01555 0081 +170 +100 223008 008 /// /// 03
120230 1339N 06808W 8429 01554 0081 +170 +100 220009 010 /// /// 03
120300 1339N 06806W 8429 01556 0084 +170 +101 214011 011 /// /// 03
120330 1339N 06804W 8429 01555 0081 +170 +101 215012 012 /// /// 03
120400 1339N 06803W 8429 01555 0080 +173 +101 218012 013 /// /// 03
120430 1339N 06801W 8429 01554 0080 +171 +102 222013 014 /// /// 03
120500 1339N 06759W 8431 01551 0082 +170 +102 224014 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

[TheBurn]

11:15 UTC VIS

[wjs3]

Oddly, recon hasn't picked up any TS winds yet.

Probably because it's only the first pass. Barely sampled the storm!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041214
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 14 20120804
120530 1339N 06757W 8429 01560 0086 +169 +102 224014 015 /// /// 03
120600 1339N 06756W 8430 01556 0086 +165 +102 222015 015 /// /// 03
120630 1339N 06754W 8428 01557 0085 +165 +101 216017 019 /// /// 03
120700 1339N 06752W 8422 01562 0085 +165 +101 212017 019 /// /// 03
120730 1339N 06750W 8426 01557 0087 +165 +100 215016 016 /// /// 03
120800 1340N 06748W 8434 01550 0088 +160 +100 211017 018 /// /// 03
120830 1340N 06747W 8434 01550 0094 +151 +098 210020 023 /// /// 03
120900 1340N 06745W 8428 01560 0101 +142 +096 212021 026 /// /// 03
120930 1340N 06743W 8431 01551 0099 +141 +093 198021 021 /// /// 03
121000 1340N 06741W 8431 01553 0099 +142 +090 197023 024 /// /// 03
121030 1340N 06740W 8422 01560 0103 +134 +087 197021 022 /// /// 03
121100 1340N 06738W 8434 01549 0100 +141 +085 199023 024 /// /// 03
121130 1340N 06736W 8426 01556 0083 +169 +083 197025 026 /// /// 03
121200 1340N 06734W 8426 01556 0078 +175 +086 201027 028 /// /// 03
121230 1340N 06733W 8433 01550 0080 +170 +089 207029 030 034 005 00
121300 1340N 06731W 8427 01556 0082 +167 +092 208030 031 034 005 03
121330 1341N 06729W 8426 01555 0082 +165 +093 205030 031 /// /// 03
121400 1342N 06729W 8425 01555 0081 +165 +095 200027 029 035 006 00
121430 1344N 06730W 8430 01548 0079 +167 +095 197026 027 035 007 00
121500 1345N 06731W 8429 01550 0081 +165 +095 193023 024 035 008 00
$$
;

[wjs3]

First pass and haven't sampled any TS winds yet. Give it time. Too little of the system covered so far.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041224
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 15 20120804
121530 1347N 06732W 8431 01548 0079 +167 +094 193021 022 036 009 00
121600 1348N 06733W 8429 01551 0079 +167 +094 191020 021 037 008 00
121630 1349N 06734W 8430 01551 0081 +170 +094 200020 021 037 006 00
121700 1350N 06736W 8428 01551 0078 +171 +094 197018 020 033 007 00
121730 1352N 06737W 8432 01550 0081 +169 +095 196013 017 032 007 00
121800 1353N 06738W 8425 01559 0080 +172 +095 210012 014 031 007 00
121830 1354N 06739W 8421 01559 0077 +174 +096 210017 017 029 006 00
121900 1355N 06741W 8433 01548 0078 +176 +096 202017 019 031 006 00
121930 1356N 06742W 8434 01549 0083 +169 +097 191019 022 030 006 00
122000 1358N 06743W 8428 01556 0085 +163 +096 180014 016 030 006 00
122030 1359N 06744W 8435 01548 0087 +162 +096 177016 017 028 008 00
122100 1400N 06746W 8422 01560 0084 +165 +096 174016 018 023 007 00
122130 1401N 06747W 8431 01551 0082 +170 +095 162013 014 024 005 00
122200 1403N 06748W 8429 01553 0082 +170 +096 164012 013 028 008 00
122230 1404N 06749W 8433 01548 0095 +144 +096 147008 010 030 019 00
122300 1405N 06751W 8425 01559 0092 +151 +095 149009 011 031 015 00
122330 1406N 06752W 8433 01549 0092 +150 +092 161011 015 034 010 00
122400 1407N 06753W 8423 01559 0094 +148 +090 190011 015 031 008 00
122430 1409N 06754W 8430 01549 0089 +150 +089 230011 013 036 014 00
122500 1410N 06756W 8442 01538 0088 +157 +089 245009 011 034 009 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

Just goes to show you how satellite imagery can be quite deceiving.

[BobHarlem]

Ernesto is reminding me of Felix in 2007 somewhat (although Felix was a bit further south). It got very strong (cat 5) in the Central Caribbean and was forecast to move north, but never did and eventually landfell in Nicaragua and Honduras. Since then I've never bought the line about stronger moving north.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041234
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 16 20120804
122530 1411N 06757W 8419 01561 0080 +167 +089 252009 010 029 006 03
122600 1412N 06758W 8429 01554 0085 +159 +089 232010 013 028 007 00
122630 1414N 06759W 8436 01545 0078 +171 +090 213007 009 026 007 00
122700 1415N 06759W 8426 01554 0074 +178 +092 225008 009 020 001 00
122730 1417N 06800W 8432 01546 0071 +180 +093 209010 011 019 002 00
122800 1418N 06801W 8433 01545 0069 +184 +096 182008 009 018 001 03
122830 1419N 06803W 8429 01554 0072 +181 +098 195004 008 011 004 03
122900 1419N 06804W 8429 01553 0074 +180 +100 248002 003 016 003 00
122930 1419N 06806W 8429 01553 0073 +180 +101 300004 005 018 001 03
123000 1419N 06807W 8423 01555 0069 +182 +102 284003 005 013 002 00
123030 1420N 06809W 8427 01554 0072 +180 +102 192002 003 009 003 00
123100 1422N 06810W 8432 01550 0071 +180 +101 352004 005 014 002 00
123130 1423N 06811W 8425 01554 0070 +185 +100 012009 010 015 002 00
123200 1424N 06812W 8429 01550 0071 +181 +100 015009 010 016 002 00
123230 1425N 06813W 8429 01550 0074 +176 +099 019011 011 015 002 00
123300 1426N 06814W 8430 01551 0073 +180 +098 020012 012 014 003 00
123330 1427N 06816W 8430 01551 0073 +181 +098 029013 013 018 001 00
123400 1429N 06817W 8429 01554 0076 +179 +098 033014 014 018 001 00
123430 1430N 06818W 8434 01550 0077 +180 +098 039015 016 017 002 00
123500 1431N 06819W 8429 01555 0080 +174 +098 045017 017 022 001 00
$$
;

[wjs3]

Yeah, the second "center" pass is showing a pretty large area of light winds.

[wxman57]

Plane is finding that Ernesto is a weak TS. Satellite imagery clearly doesn't tell the whole story, thus the value in recon. New model guidance is all into the Yucatan then W-WNW into Mexico to maybe as far north as south TX. Only the GFDL and HWRF disagree and take it north toward western FL.

[hurricaneCW]

Based on what recon found, is Ernesto even a TS?