ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

The atmosphere out around Isaac is anything but conducive it seems.If one looks to the NE in the WV it looks like a huge low(?) reaching all the way down to 20' N -30' N rotating Westward and providing lift for TD10 to the NW.This is flattening out Isaac on the N side and then it appears that a small TUTT(?) is out causing the stall I guess which looked like at one point yesterday it was dissipating.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[ROCK]

yep and the euro has been showing this for the last 3 days rock

oh I agree the EURO was showing multiple issues until after Hispa....but if that center is closer to 15N right now then it is already wrong....

see all of you at EURO time....I got to go to work!!

[ROCK]

The atmosphere out around Isaac is anything but conducive it seems.If one looks to the NE in the WV it looks like a huge low(?) reaching all the way down to 20' N -30' N rotating Westward and providing lift for TD10 to the NW.This is flattening out Isaac on the N side and then it appears that a small TUTT(?) is out causing the stall I guess which looked like at one point yesterday it was dissipating.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I mentioned a TUTT like feature yesterday... Me and Frank P were publicly flogged, hanged and quartered....

[adam0983]

What model shows this storm going over Jamaica. Why are we trusting the inconsisent EURO so much.

[otowntiger]

The atmosphere out around Isaac is anything but conducive it seems.If one looks to the NE in the WV it looks like a huge low(?) reaching all the way down to 20' N -30' N rotating Westward and providing lift for TD10 to the NW.This is flattening out Isaac on the N side and then it appears that a small TUTT(?) is out causing the stall I guess which looked like at one point yesterday it was dissipating.

It does seem (based on what he's done so far but could change) that Isaac may never fulfill his 'potential' as far as intensity goes and that will be a GREAT thing! No one needs him to ramp up and become a formidable storm considering where's located and where he's apparently headed. His general direction is mostly known and the only variables seems to be potential center re-locations. I just wish that the science and forecasting of intensity would catch up with the track forecasting. It seems every year we are just as clueless as the previous year about storm intensity.

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

MON-WED...LTST NHC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING TC ISAAC
CLOSE TO THE SW FL COAST EARLY MON WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE COAST
INITIALLY EARLY MON AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF SQUALLS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A THREAT OF
RAINBAND TORNADOES DURING MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ISAAC OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL
SUBJECT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A POTENTIALLY WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK ISAAC TAKES IN RELATION TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TRAILING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCT STORMS IN THE FORECAST AND THE GFS ELEMENTS APPEAR
REASONABLE WITH REGARD TO AN EXITING SYSTEM PAST TUESDAY.

[Mouton]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am sticking with my guess path since monday, after cuba over the west keys and up into the area around Appolachiacola. Today with the 12z run, the Canadian which has been the farthest east of the major models brings the storm virtually up the state. GFS is pretty close to the NHC 5am model west of Tampa, UKMet a tad west of that and the Euro moving east now showing a landing around the alabama florida line. None of the models is showing any rapid recurving which seem logical given the ridge.

I notice the NHC has the storm slowed down to 13mph at last reading....I wonder if that slow down is more do to the repositioning of the COC (of many) or an actual system slow down. That hightens the concerns that all these models and observations are in flux till we have a tropical system with one defined center and cohesive structure. Since I don't wish to see a major storm landing anywhere in this hemisphere, I would be happy if it remained a huge weak Tropical system hence why I am concerned whether the slow down is a statistical anomoly. A slower storm seemingly would get an ominous act together.

All in my IMHO of course.

[Javlin]

The atmosphere out around Isaac is anything but conducive it seems.If one looks to the NE in the WV it looks like a huge low(?) reaching all the way down to 20' N -30' N rotating Westward and providing lift for TD10 to the NW.This is flattening out Isaac on the N side and then it appears that a small TUTT(?) is out causing the stall I guess which looked like at one point yesterday it was dissipating.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I mentioned a TUTT like feature yesterday... Me and Frank P were publicly flogged, hanged and quartered....

Yea it just looked like it was going to dissipate in fact looked almost more like an ULL to me and now it looks like a small TUTT feature.I just wonder how much the models take this into account?I thought a couple of years ago the models were to start incorporating them in as variables but my memory may be at fault also.I cannot see the WNW/NW jog coming myself when you look at what to me appears as a blocking mechanism to the N but my insights and thoughts are amuteurissh at best

[adam0983]

The NHC are professional forcasters and they have the track down to a science. I am confident that this storm will not become a wave. Lets stick to NHC they know what they are doing. This storm will get much better organized this morning look at the radar and presentation of the storm.

[Stormlover2012]

the nhc, they had it stronge r 2 days ago and issac has gotten worse

[tolakram]

Let's stop the bickering and one liners. It's ok to suggest and forecast, just make sure you include a disclaimer. It's also ok to disagree with the NHC as long as you are respectful about it.

saved radar loop

[Dean4Storms]

I'm thinking it begins to get better organized today with the dry air getting washed, SST's climbing and upper level outflows good with a center a bit further south. Once that takes place a move more toward the WNW toward eastern edge of Haiti.

Not feeling so good with the Consensus zeroing in on us here in the Panhandle, hope it stays to my east if it comes this way! Sorry PCB!

[Blown Away]

the nhc, they had it stronge r 2 days ago and issac has gotten worse

You and I are see 2 different things, I see Isaac consolidating as we post and a system slowly getting organized. That convection ball is concentrated near the broard circulation and the banding is impressive.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cpdaman]

he needs to get vertically stacked...slowing helps this? (mets?

i would agree with the poster who said that isaac slowing down makes him more likely to intensify...i would THINK but it's a guess...that is his various centers might be able to STACK much ezier as he SLOWs. .

right now he is in the east central caribean away from Large land areas......if he didn't slow down he would be upon hispanola (at least enuf to disrupt inflow soon) i would think
it's either today/tonite for isaac to strengthen or perhaps wait till the SE gulf /fl straights to try and make a cane

[cycloneye]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From where Isaac is he would have to go straight NW now to hit the eastern edge of Hispaniola and straight WNW to hit the western edge.Given his immense size, moisture field and comparative weakness, his straight west movement over the past few days to anything north of that will be very gradual I feel.The longer Issac spends moving westward could have big implications down the line.

[hurricanes1234]

Now, I said that there was no major damage. However, I was wrong. Listening to the news, I am hearing that the south and east portions of Trinidad are underwater. We, in the west, experienced the less intense half of Isaac's rainband, but the south and east portions of the country had it a lot worse, as they were inside some reds and even a couple of greys on the AVN imagery, while the west was inside dark oranges. Although the west was experiencing less rainfall, some of us here are flooded, yet again, after August 11th's flooding.

thanks for that update from Trinidad, I hope the water recedes quickly for you so recovery for all that have been hit can begin soon.

The Met service said that the tide is low, so the water is receding fairly quickly. Thank you very much for the concern, though!

[wxwatcher1999]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From where Isaac is he would have to go straight NW now to hit the eastern edge of Hispaniola and straight WNW to hit the western edge.Given his immense size, moisture field and comparative weakness, his straight west movement over the past few days to anything north of that will be very gradual I feel.The longer Issac spends moving westward could have big implications down the line.

That is exactly what I have been trying to say but you explained it in a more professional way

[cpdaman]

looks like the center per recon is near 15.6/ 65W

as this slows perhaps we should look for a bomb of convection to go off in that area and allign the centers

edit after look at 1315 frame or not

looks like clouds near 15.6/65 N do have a nice blow up but it's being wrapped into a center to the SW

[ROCK]

the nhc, they had it stronge r 2 days ago and issac has gotten worse

You and I are see 2 different things, I see Isaac consolidating as we post and a system slowly getting organized. That convection ball is concentrated near the broard circulation and the banding is impressive.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

still has multipl vorts, and sucking in some dry air off SA...thats why they call this place the graveyard for developing systems.....

[N2Storms]

I'm thinking it begins to get better organized today with the dry air getting washed, SST's climbing and upper level outflows good with a center a bit further south. Once that takes place a move more toward the WNW toward eastern edge of Haiti.

Not feeling so good with the Consensus zeroing in on us here in the Panhandle, hope it stays to my east if it comes this way! Sorry PCB!

Hey Dean...for some reason I'm just not real concerned at this point. We are in the 5 Day Cone but I really believe it'll change before all is said and done and we'll be out of it. Right now my gut feeling is that Isaac will end up staying right along the West Coast of FL or even up the Spine. Looking at the Spaghetti Plots, most them have him east of PC. When all is said and done I believe we'll be alright up here in the Western Panhandle. JMHO.