ATL: ISAAC - Models

[northjaxpro]

KBBOCA, it has been that type of crazy season in NE Florida that's for sure. It seems that Mother Nature has targeted our region with a flurry of activity. I am weary of it here, and unfortunately it appears more probable as time progresses that Isaac is going to bring us more misery by early week. We are getting inside the 5 day period now and I am really taking this very seriously as the models have appaerently honed in on a solution for Isaac to impact the entire peninsula.

[boca]

KBBOCA, it has been that type of crazy season in NE Florida that's for sure. It seems that Mother Nature has targeted our region with a flurry of activity. I am weary of it here, and unfortunately it appears more probable as time progresses that Isaac is going to bring us more misery by early week. We are getting inside the 5 day period now and I am really taking this very seriously as the models have appaerently honed in on a solution for Isaac to impact the entire peninsula.

Isaac is so large it takes up an area from the Keys thru The middle part of Georgia from South to North

[KBBOCA]

NorthJaxPro, I can understand! I really feel for you and others who have already been flooded badly twice by Beryl and Debby this season.

Agree it looks like this has potential to impact the entire state - north to south, east to west because of its size and projected track. Yuck.

Stay safe.

Disclaimer: I'm an amateur. I could be wrong.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I'm not trying to start a models war because none of them are right on every storm but I am amazed at the run to run consistency the GFS has shown regarding Issac. I think the entire peninsula of Florida is going to experience some nasty weather starting with South Florida come Sunday night from this very large system.

Just the opinion of an amateur.

[JPmia]

Looking at graphic below with the 132 hr GFS and landfall in the Big Bend (which "never happens") I'm reminded of another "never happens" scenario - a storm landfalling in JAX from the east...

Well that happened earlier with Beryl this year, so maybe this year the Big Bend hit will happen too.

Hopefully Isaac will never resolve his internal organization issues enough to strengthen much. No one needs or wants a beast to make landfall.

132 hr

What is rare for that area are major hurricanes.. They've had their share of Cat 1&2s over the years

[jlauderdal]

I'm not trying to start a models war because none of them are right on every storm but I am amazed at the run to run consistency the GFS has shown regarding Issac. I think the entire peninsula of Florida is going to experience some nasty weather starting with South Florida come Sunday night from this very large system.

Just the opinion of an amateur.

there are a whole bunch of kids in the state of florida looking for an eastward shift today of the euro and gfs

[Blown Away]

Today just has a models trend to the right feel to it!

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL Shifted East a bit again entering PBC and running thru Mid GA

[CalmBeforeStorm]

06z GFDL Shifted East a bit again entering PBC and running thru Mid GA

And what's interesting is the initialization was right where the latest vortex message showed Issac being.

[ROCK]

Today just has a models trend to the right feel to it!

oh please.... lets see what the models say at 12Z with new VDM to digest

[KBBOCA]

What is rare for that area are major hurricanes.. They've had their share of Cat 1&2s over the years

Thanks for the correction!

[ROCK]

0z EURO Ensembles

192hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[brunota2003]

So in the mornings, to the right...in the evenings, to the left. Find the middle ground between the shifts and forecast off of that! G-IV flight data will be in tonight's models!

[ROCK]

06Z NOGAPS......fail


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[allicat1214]

0z EURO Ensembles

192hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Wait, I'm confused. I thought 0z Euro had it by Pensacola....

What's the difference between Euro and Euro Ensembles??? (Sorry for dumb question.....)

[Dean4Storms]

I really don't like that 00z ECMWF run, Ivan all over again! We don't need that here on the Emerald Coast!

[ROCK]

0z EURO Ensembles

192hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Wait, I'm confused. I thought 0z Euro had it by Pensacola....

What's the difference between Euro and Euro Ensembles??? (Sorry for dumb question.....)

0Z was into Pensacola....the ensembles are like the GFS ensembles. slightly varies conditions to see potential outcomes. They are different than the operationals....none of those models really matter now anyway.....the center is not where its supposed to be...data from the GVI mission and constant RECON all day today will resolve any more conflict...IMO

[DESTRUCTION5]

Have the feeling the NHC may shift the track a tiny bit east at 11:00 based on the fact the 06z GFS scrapes coast and GFDL, CMC, and HWRF all split the state...Only modeling left of NHC now is the UKMET and EURO...Im thinking just brushing FL West coast..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[uhvjaguars22]

I really think jamaica needs to watch this storm if the center is further south into the convection might be a lot of rude awakenings

opinion not forecast

[wxwatcher1999]

0z EURO Ensembles

192hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Wow that's further west isn't it?