ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

How much longer till the GFS rols?

11:30 PM

Ah okay so 5:30 pm here in Hawaii.

Basically 30 mins after every NHC update then.

After full advisories, not intermediate advisories. Basically, every 6 hours, although the ones happening at (for your time zone) 5:30 am and pm are more important than the ones happening at 11:30 am and pm (again, your time zone).

[Jevo]

0z GFS Initialized

[Kingarabian]

For those who have not seen specialist Stacey Stewart,here he is. He went to the point on that discussion.

[img]Image

Stewart on the phone: "Yes? Oh really? Storm2k members are clueless of whats going on with Debbie? No problem, i'll educate them with this advisory."

[psyclone]

For those who have not seen specialist Stacey Stewart,here he is. He went to the point on that discussion.

A great man and a true expert in his field. What I missed while concentrating on the northeastward reconsolidation of the center was that even if it did (and is to some degree) the ridge was already building too fast to its north and so would not allow it to go northeastward anyway. There is a lot of stuff that you have to keep your eye on, all at the same time, and that's what the NHC does so well.

that's what i was getting at with the lurch concept a little bit ago. everyone around here remembers elena coming right at this area before doing a loop and going to ms.

[Cainer]

I have a historic question. If Debby becomes a hurricane does the 2012 North Atlantic season break the record for the earliest 2nd Atlantic hurricane?

Nah, 1908 had it's second hurricane form in May. Unsure about other seasons, but I'll bet it'll be one of the earliest if it does reach hurricane intensity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1908_Atlan ... ane_season

[Air Force Met]

Stewart still a Capt. in AF?

Yes.

No. He is a Captain in the Navy. A Captain in the AF is an O-3...he is an O-6.

He's was also awarded the Bronze Star and the Purple Heart.

[NDG]

I find it suspecious that eventhough the NHC is following the ECMWF closely they do not show a forecasted landfall in their 5 day forecast track map, as if they are not 100% sure where landfall is going to be.
BTW, 12z Euro shows landfalling Wednesday night.

[vaffie]

Saw a bunch of seagulls in the grocery parking lot in the middle of Houston. Don't see that every day. Wonder if they know something. haha

[cycloneye]

I have a historic question. If Debby becomes a hurricane does the 2012 North Atlantic season break the record for the earliest 2nd Atlantic hurricane?

Nah, 1908 had it's second hurricane form in May. Unsure about other seasons, but I'll bet it'll be one of the earliest if it does reach hurricane intensity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1908_Atlan ... ane_season

Wow, on May of 1908. But that season despite the early activity was not very active.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +12


0z GFS +24

[psyclone]

I find it suspecious that eventhough the NHC is following the ECMWF closely they do not show a forecasted landfall in their 5 day forecast track map, as if they are not 100% sure where landfall is going to be.
BTW, 12z Euro shows landfalling Wednesday night.

yeah they may agree on the track but certainly not the speed. hopefully they will address that in future discussions. meanwhile, locally some very heavy rain is approaching the tampa bay area from the south. it will be interesting to see if holds together.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

So far GFS has been right about Debby for over 2 weeks now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO finally come around

Cough Cough. Uh no.

[Sanibel]

Wind kicking up here.

[Lane]

At 27hrs a move to the west.......

[vaffie]

At 27hrs a move to the west.......

That would be a first... At least this time these runs are more reliable with all of the recorder data input from the flights today.

[Lane]

Well a "slight jog" west, followed by it stalling again at 36hrs.

[ozonepete]

Stewart still a Capt. in AF?

Yes.

No. He is a Captain in the Navy. A Captain in the AF is an O-3...he is an O-6.

He's was also awarded the Bronze Star and the Purple Heart.

Oops. I was looking at the Captain and missed the AF. Thanks for correcting.

[Lane]

So far the GFS is not straying from the previous nights runs of course this only through 42hrs. keeping off the panhandle and stalling.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +36


0z GFS +48

[HurricaneBrain]

I have a feeling that Debby is going to be a LA-TX coast rider...