ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041244
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120804
123530 1432N 06820W 8433 01553 0077 +181 +098 045018 018 018 003 00
123600 1433N 06822W 8424 01561 0075 +184 +100 052019 019 017 002 03
123630 1434N 06823W 8428 01556 0075 +184 +101 055020 021 019 001 00
123700 1436N 06824W 8430 01556 0077 +185 +102 056020 021 019 001 00
123730 1437N 06825W 8429 01556 0076 +185 +104 057022 022 019 000 00
123800 1438N 06826W 8429 01556 0075 +185 +105 058022 022 018 000 00
123830 1439N 06828W 8429 01559 0076 +185 +107 060023 023 019 001 00
123900 1440N 06829W 8430 01557 0079 +180 +107 061023 023 020 001 00
123930 1442N 06830W 8429 01560 0080 +182 +107 061023 023 021 000 00
124000 1443N 06831W 8428 01562 0078 +189 +108 063024 024 024 001 00
124030 1444N 06833W 8425 01565 0076 +191 +108 062025 025 023 002 00
124100 1445N 06834W 8429 01562 0081 +186 +108 063026 026 021 001 00
124130 1447N 06835W 8429 01565 0082 +185 +108 065026 027 020 001 00
124200 1448N 06836W 8426 01565 0083 +185 +107 066025 026 019 000 00
124230 1449N 06838W 8428 01565 0084 +185 +107 067026 026 019 001 00
124300 1450N 06839W 8429 01564 0087 +181 +106 068026 027 018 000 00
124330 1452N 06840W 8427 01567 0087 +183 +105 066025 026 016 001 00
124400 1453N 06841W 8437 01559 0085 +186 +105 062027 028 015 000 00
124430 1454N 06843W 8424 01572 0082 +191 +105 063026 027 018 002 00
124500 1455N 06844W 8433 01564 0083 +195 +105 064026 026 019 000 00
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Based on what recon found, is Ernesto even a TS?

I don't know!!! This looked like it was going to be 70mph at 11am. However, buoy 60 miles noRth of center picked up sustained winds of 35mph.What is happening????

[Air Force Met]

:uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system...

The global models almost always under initialize. ALWAYS. I keep reading this on the board...and if this is going to be the standard to use the GFS/EURO/UKMET/CMC...you might as well un-bookmark them during tropical season...because you are waiting on something that will never happen. NEVER.

The GFS didn't initialize Debby...yet it sniffed it out fairly well. Correct?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What WILL we see at 11?

[jinftl]

Does the environment change enough before the Yucatan that Ernesto could potentially intensify to a hurricane before landfall?

Plane is finding that Ernesto is a weak TS. Satellite imagery clearly doesn't tell the whole story, thus the value in recon. New model guidance is all into the Yucatan then W-WNW into Mexico to maybe as far north as south TX. Only the GFDL and HWRF disagree and take it north toward western FL.

[wxman57]

Does the environment change enough before the Yucatan that Ernesto could potentially intensify to a hurricane before landfall?

Plane is finding that Ernesto is a weak TS. Satellite imagery clearly doesn't tell the whole story, thus the value in recon. New model guidance is all into the Yucatan then W-WNW into Mexico to maybe as far north as south TX. Only the GFDL and HWRF disagree and take it north toward western FL.

It would appear so. I think it'll eventually get its act together.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Recon finds depression Ernesto no TS winds yet.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Is recon getting this right? No problems??!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041254
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 18 20120804
124530 1456N 06845W 8428 01570 0083 +193 +105 066026 027 019 001 00
124600 1458N 06846W 8424 01572 0083 +191 +104 066028 028 019 000 00
124630 1459N 06848W 8430 01566 0085 +190 +103 067028 028 019 000 00
124700 1500N 06849W 8424 01572 0082 +191 +103 067029 030 018 000 00
124730 1501N 06850W 8429 01568 0082 +195 +103 069029 029 020 001 00
124800 1503N 06851W 8434 01562 0081 +198 +102 067030 030 022 000 00
124830 1504N 06853W 8425 01573 0082 +196 +103 066030 031 021 000 00
124900 1505N 06854W 8427 01572 0083 +195 +102 068029 030 022 001 00
124930 1506N 06855W 8428 01572 0086 +195 +102 069028 028 022 000 00
125000 1508N 06856W 8426 01573 0087 +194 +102 070029 029 023 000 00
125030 1509N 06858W 8429 01572 0088 +190 +101 073029 029 022 001 00
125100 1510N 06859W 8430 01571 0088 +190 +101 074030 031 022 000 00
125130 1511N 06900W 8429 01572 0091 +190 +100 073030 031 022 000 00
125200 1513N 06901W 8430 01573 0091 +191 +100 074030 030 024 000 00
125230 1514N 06903W 8426 01577 0092 +191 +100 075030 030 022 001 00
125300 1515N 06904W 8434 01570 0094 +187 +100 076029 030 023 000 00
125330 1516N 06905W 8428 01578 0098 +185 +100 079030 030 022 001 00
125400 1518N 06907W 8428 01578 0100 +180 +099 079031 031 023 000 00
125430 1519N 06908W 8426 01579 0102 +178 +099 077029 031 023 002 00
125500 1520N 06909W 8432 01575 0105 +176 +098 077030 030 023 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

It's still moving too fast and too far south. Dead zone wins again, in my opinion.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

A couple of hours ago, we were saying hurricane later today but recon says TD?????

[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/12:29:20Z
B. 14 deg 19 min N
068 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1477 m
D. 37 kt
E. 133 deg 42 nm
F. 200 deg 29 kt
G. 135 deg 51 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1528 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 41 KT N QUAD 11:13:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 12:56:00Z
;

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041304
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 19 20120804
125530 1521N 06911W 8428 01579 0107 +175 +096 077030 030 025 001 00
125600 1523N 06912W 8436 01571 0109 +172 +095 075033 034 020 002 00
125630 1524N 06913W 8426 01581 0111 +167 +094 078031 034 021 002 00
125700 1525N 06914W 8438 01570 0114 +165 +092 078028 029 022 003 00
125730 1527N 06916W 8428 01581 0109 +173 +091 081029 031 020 001 00
125800 1528N 06917W 8428 01581 0109 +175 +090 082032 032 018 001 00
125830 1529N 06918W 8428 01582 0109 +177 +092 083032 032 017 001 00
125900 1530N 06920W 8432 01579 0110 +175 +094 083032 032 020 001 00
125930 1532N 06921W 8429 01583 0113 +174 +095 083031 032 021 002 00
130000 1533N 06922W 8432 01582 0116 +170 +097 080028 029 022 002 00
130030 1534N 06924W 8422 01589 0114 +170 +097 082030 031 020 002 00
130100 1535N 06925W 8430 01583 0115 +174 +097 082030 030 022 002 00
130130 1536N 06926W 8425 01587 0111 +174 +097 082028 030 018 002 03
130200 1536N 06928W 8430 01582 0115 +168 +098 079024 026 /// /// 03
130230 1534N 06927W 8441 01570 0120 +159 +098 076018 023 024 006 03
130300 1532N 06927W 8433 01583 0116 +172 +096 073023 025 023 006 00
130330 1531N 06926W 8429 01581 0109 +176 +095 080026 027 019 001 00
130400 1529N 06926W 8428 01583 0109 +176 +095 079027 027 019 001 00
130430 1527N 06926W 8433 01576 0110 +175 +095 076027 027 016 002 00
130500 1526N 06926W 8428 01584 0112 +174 +095 075025 027 018 000 00
$$
;

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041314
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120804
130530 1524N 06925W 8432 01579 0112 +173 +096 076024 026 017 001 00
130600 1523N 06925W 8430 01581 0109 +175 +097 074023 025 016 001 00
130630 1521N 06925W 8422 01585 0109 +173 +097 069022 023 019 000 00
130700 1519N 06925W 8433 01576 0108 +174 +097 064019 020 016 001 00
130730 1517N 06924W 8429 01579 0105 +179 +097 070021 021 017 000 00
130800 1516N 06924W 8425 01582 0103 +179 +098 070023 024 016 001 00
130830 1514N 06924W 8434 01577 0105 +182 +099 074024 024 013 002 00
130900 1512N 06924W 8427 01584 0108 +178 +099 075023 024 012 002 00
130930 1511N 06923W 8429 01581 0109 +174 +099 076022 023 012 000 00
131000 1509N 06923W 8432 01575 0110 +169 +098 078021 022 014 000 00
131030 1508N 06923W 8428 01582 0110 +169 +097 076021 023 017 001 00
131100 1506N 06923W 8425 01579 0108 +168 +096 072021 023 017 001 00
131130 1504N 06922W 8430 01572 0103 +172 +095 074021 021 010 000 00
131200 1503N 06922W 8430 01573 0104 +170 +096 073019 020 013 000 00
131230 1501N 06922W 8425 01576 0102 +170 +096 070019 019 013 000 00
131300 1459N 06922W 8429 01573 0101 +175 +096 064018 019 008 001 00
131330 1458N 06921W 8429 01575 0098 +181 +096 062018 018 010 000 00
131400 1456N 06921W 8429 01575 0100 +180 +098 061018 018 010 001 00
131430 1454N 06921W 8427 01578 0096 +187 +098 060020 020 009 000 00
131500 1452N 06921W 8428 01578 0095 +187 +099 056019 020 009 000 00
$$
;

[Blinhart]

Looks like they haven't really sampled the main part of Ernie yet, looks like they went through the dry air part of the storm first.

[Blinhart]

Looking at the satellite pics of Ernie, looks like he took a giant pill of dry air, and he is going to struggle for the next few hours to get rid of the dry air.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041324
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120804
131530 1451N 06920W 8428 01577 0099 +180 +100 054018 019 012 001 00
131600 1449N 06920W 8430 01573 0099 +180 +100 054017 018 010 000 00
131630 1447N 06920W 8432 01569 0098 +180 +100 053015 017 009 000 00
131700 1446N 06919W 8425 01577 0096 +183 +099 055016 017 009 001 00
131730 1444N 06919W 8434 01569 0096 +185 +099 053016 016 009 000 00
131800 1442N 06919W 8423 01580 0096 +181 +099 051016 016 008 000 00
131830 1441N 06919W 8427 01574 0097 +180 +099 048015 016 009 001 00
131900 1439N 06918W 8434 01566 0095 +182 +099 043014 015 008 001 00
131930 1437N 06918W 8424 01577 0098 +180 +099 042013 014 006 001 00
132000 1435N 06918W 8429 01572 0098 +180 +099 040013 014 005 000 00
132030 1434N 06918W 8430 01568 0097 +180 +100 037014 014 006 000 00
132100 1432N 06917W 8425 01577 0094 +180 +100 038015 016 008 000 00
132130 1430N 06917W 8433 01566 0094 +181 +100 040016 017 007 000 00
132200 1429N 06917W 8429 01574 0094 +182 +099 037016 016 007 001 00
132230 1427N 06917W 8429 01572 0094 +183 +099 033014 016 009 000 00
132300 1425N 06916W 8429 01571 0095 +180 +099 031014 014 006 000 00
132330 1423N 06916W 8428 01572 0094 +180 +099 030015 016 005 001 00
132400 1422N 06916W 8428 01570 0094 +179 +099 030014 016 004 001 00
132430 1420N 06916W 8426 01572 0093 +177 +099 029013 014 006 000 00
132500 1418N 06915W 8426 01571 0093 +179 +099 025014 015 006 001 00
$$
;

[perk]

:uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system...

The global models almost always under initialize. ALWAYS. I keep reading this on the board...and if this is going to be the standard to use the GFS/EURO/UKMET/CMC...you might as well un-bookmark them during tropical season...because you are waiting on something that will never happen. NEVER.

The GFS didn't initialize Debby...yet it sniffed it out fairly well. Correct?

Air Force Met what's your initial take on Ernesto's track.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looking at the satellite pics of Ernie, looks like he took a giant pill of dry air, and he is going to struggle for the next few hours to get rid of the dry air.

Will watch that but why is recon saying 35mph???

[cycloneye]

Looking at the satellite pics of Ernie, looks like he took a giant pill of dry air, and he is going to struggle for the next few hours to get rid of the dry air.

Yes,mid level dry air.GCANE nailed this from yesterday morning.