ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Cantore said we may have a Joyce? (Sigh)

[HurrMark]

Here is something to keep in mind:

Here is the forecast from yesterday for 8 AM:

24H 23/1200Z 16.8N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

The actual location was 15.4N 64.8W, or about 100 miles to the south.

I think this may have large implications for later on...I am seriously starting to doubt a FL Peninsula solution. The question is now whether it will miss Haiti. The southwester most point of Haiti is at roughly 18.3N, 74.4W. So Isaac would need to go 287-288 from hereon out to clip Haiti. That said, Cuba's eastern mountains are not that tiny, so it will have to chug a little more to the west before we can say it can possibly bypass the mountains.

[KWT]

tolakram, very evident in the radar loops from San Juan that there is several circulations, what I guess is the surface circulation is further north whilst the MLC is rotating around further south, as per the earlier recon mission.

[pgoss11]

I have the ultimate respect for the NHC and every time I have thought they were wrong I had egg on my face. This storm has been challenging for even these experts. From the beginning this storm has had to deal with dry air intruding, multiple vortices, and the speed it has been traveling has also been detrimental to the storm's ability to vertically stack. Now the storm is slowing down, still some dry air and still having trouble with vertically stacking. Soon the land interaction will be a problem, so Isaac has had a lot of challenges from the start. I do think he will somewhat get his act together, but I have a feeling it will be too little..too late.
Not an official forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

I see the southern vort eventually took over and rotated around... looks quite healthy now.

[KWT]

Developing convection close to the LLC, for the first time it looks like its trying to consolidate a touch.

I'll have to look at the recon reports over the next hour or so.

[RL3AO]

Yep. It appears to have gotten better organized vertically over the past two hours.

[KWT]

I see the southern vort eventually took over and rotated around... looks quite healthy now.

Yeah, I think we may finally start to see tightening up of the wind field again after 24hrs of struggles.

Motion from now on should be close to 285 I'd have thought, which probably will keep it just south of Haiti.

[Aric Dunn]

Developing convection close to the LLC, for the first time it looks like its trying to consolidate a touch.

I'll have to look at the recon reports over the next hour or so.

they look quite good on the last pass from the exiting recon plane. new plane will be out shortly. also looks good from long range out of san juan and on satellite. Also the reformations and wobbles did little to changing the models as I mentioned yesterday.

this last pass pressure dropped 3 mb. to 1003mb appears to have consolidated and may seen intensify.

[KWT]

they look quite good on the last pass from the exiting recon plane. new plane will be out shortly. also looks good from long range out of san juan and on satellite. Also the reformations and wobbles did little to changing the models as I mentioned yesterday.

this last pass pressure dropped 3 mb. to 1003mb appears to have consolidated and may seen intensify.

I think short term (IE next 24-36hrs) this relocation may lead to a slightly further south track, it probably isn't going to mean a huge deal in the longer term though. I suspect the 12z model suite will have to shift a touch south in the first 36-48hrs simply because the 00z suite started this around 16.5-17N.

Either way its going to be gaining latitude from now on, it just depends on how much really!

[cpdaman]

sorry for confusion but where is the center that is getting better stack'd right now?

is it where the blow up of convection is near 15.6 65-65.5 or so

near the northern appendage of deep convection http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Aric Dunn]

sorry for confusion but where is the center that is getting better stack'd right now?

is it where the blow up of convection is near 15.6 65-65.5 or so

near the northern appendage of deep convection http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=ir

check the recon page you can see the last center pass. 15.4N 64.6167W it has jump to the NW almost back in line with yesterdays forecast points. I figured once it consolidated it would do to rotational effects swing back to the north and it has.

[JPmia]

and that is exactly what the NHC expected by way of last night's runs:

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS DID AN OUTSTANDING JOB PREDICTING
THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD JOG OR REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OF ISAAC.
THOSE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO FORECASTING ISAAC TO MAKE A SHARP JOG TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN STEADY OFF ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.

[drezee]

1-min sustained TS winds over 100 miles NE of center measured

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

This is defintely a TS.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting. JB is sticking to his guns. Admits he could be wrong, but still sticking to a east Fl landfall. Then north along the coast.

[KWT]

1-min sustained TS winds over 100 miles NE of center measured

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

This is defintely a TS.

Yeah, strongest winds are fairly well removed from the center.

I'd imagine it should steadily strengthen from now on.

[crimi481]

Looks like a small Low is pulling away from N.W Quad - heading for Bahamas
This should aid in Isaac's stengtheing
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-bd.html

[GTStorm]

Interesting. JB is sticking to his guns. Admits he could be wrong, but still sticking to a east Fl landfall. Then north along the coast.
Flame on skeptics.

Then he'd better get moving northward a bit (Isaac, not JB that is...), wouldn't you think?

[meriland23]

Anyone know the coordinates as of right now or close to?

[tolakram]

Live loop, nice CDO

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

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