ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxwatcher1999]

Im not buying into the gfs until I start to see a turn to the north

[Stormlover2012]

this storm looks horrible, to much dry air.

[pgoss11]

Wondering if this storm will ever take off..too many obstacles to overcome from the get go..

[JPmia]

http://noaahrd.files.wordpress.com/2012 ... 9track.gif

Flight path for today's G-IV mission.. heh maybe I will see them when they fly over Ft. Lauderdale.

[ROCK]

Wondering if this storm will ever take off..too many obstacles to overcome from the get go..

it will eventually....just needs to stack vertically or relo under the 700MB

[cpdaman]

Wondering if this storm will ever take off..too many obstacles to overcome from the get go..

it will eventually....just needs to stack vertically or relo under the 700MB

will it thou?

it doesn't have much time till it nears hispanola (if the WNW turn starts as Models forecast) and the mtns. will interupt inflow

cuba won't help it. the best chance for this to go "to town" maybe if it gets into the SE gulf which nobody really wants

i wonder when models may back off in intensity prior to hispanola impact, nhc still has this as getting to cane status prior to any hit on haiti right

[CronkPSU]

we've also seen small land interaction help tighten systems in the past

just wait and see at this point

[boca]

This storm can defy all the models continue south of due west and plow into the Yucatan Im sure it crossed peoples minds

[wxwatcher1999]

Am I right that the further west it goes the less of a chance it has to feel the weakness cause isn't a high pressure supposed to slide over the central gulf coast?

[angelwing]

I don't know if my work has it blocked out but I can't find the latest spaghetti model, does anyone have a recent one?

[wxwatcher1999]

This storm can defy all the models continue south of due west and plow into the Yucatan Im sure it crossed peoples minds

I was thinking that but is it possible it could go west and make a wnw turn and shoot through the yucatan channel without any land interaction?

[sphelps8681]

Am I right that the further west it goes the less of a chance it has to feel the weakness cause isn't a high pressure supposed to slide over the central gulf coast?

Our local met here in Beaumont last night said that the high would start going east by I think he said Wednesday. He said we are not out of the woods yet.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't know if my work has it blocked out but I can't find the latest spaghetti model, does anyone have a recent one?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

[angelwing]

I don't know if my work has it blocked out but I can't find the latest spaghetti model, does anyone have a recent one?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

TYVM!

[BigB0882]

Have the feeling the NHC may shift the track a tiny bit east at 11:00 based on the fact the 06z GFS scrapes coast and GFDL, CMC, and HWRF all split the state...Only modeling left of NHC now is the UKMET and EURO...Im thinking just brushing FL West coast..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would just leave the track be unless there are major shifts throughout the day. Why budge it at all when you know the 0z runs tonight will have the important data that is being collected today. I would wait for the 0z runs tonight and then make any shifts in the NHC track based on those models which should be the most reliable thus far.

[wzrgirl1]

Am I seeing a slight shift east now on those spaghetti plots??

[adam0983]

This could be happening because of the decrease in forward speed.

[wxwatcher1999]

Am I seeing a slight shift east now on those spaghetti plots??

Looking at those models none of them have it moving west like it is now...can someone explain that?

[meriland23]

So just thought this was interesting. Here's the forecasted path of 8am today (top) and 2pm yesterday (bottom) from NHC.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[chris_fit]

So just thought this was interesting. Here's the forecasted path of 8am today (top) and 2pm yesterday (bottom) from NHC.

[img ]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/8286/24807374.png[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

From these two graphics, the center was out of the cone, in a time frame of less than 24 hours.