ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Trough is pulling some pretty heavy ozone down into the mid Miss valley.

Looks like it is beginning to wrap into Sandy.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/view ... duct=o3_us

[GCANE]

Looks Sandy is now cutoff from any high theta-e air coming up from the tropics.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

could you explain what that means and how it will affect the storm please?

This is the moisture in the lower atmosphere that Sandy has to work with to generate convection.

As Sandy gets pulled into the trough there will be colder air at higher altitudes - you can monitor that by looking at Ozone column.

Very warm, moist air at the lower levels of the atmosphere and cold air at the high levels creates very intense convection.

Theta-e is a measurement of the airs combined warmth and moisture.

[Andy_L]

thanks Gcane

[cwg25]

True, I do live in a complex with houses blocking some wind, and we are a little more inland.

Depends on where you live. Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal (not too far down the road from you) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, and New Bern's airport (EWN) is currently reporting sustained winds of 20 mph, with gusts to 31 mph...and there were gusts up to 40 mph earlier. Cherry Point made it up to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph as well...so they are there, just in the more open areas. Any buildings around you could be blocking the winds.

[GCANE]

NOAA42 just finished our third and final center fix in Sandy. Rainband is trying to wrap around center.

http://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

[GCANE]

Good overshooting top right over the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[UpTheCreek]

Experienced some 40+ mph gusts last night here in eastern NC, today slightly breezy although expect it to pick up as the day goes on and the storm is more parallel and closer to our location. Steady raining since Sat am but surprisingly light. Water on our river hasn't submerged my dock as yet, perhaps 2-3' higher than normal right now. Center is way out to sea from us but can tell (and feel) that it's a large storm, bless those in the direct path down the road.

[cwg25]

I'm in New Bern too, by the high school. Are you on the Neuse or Trent? I've noticed the light rain too. Not many downpours since yesterday, but the steady rain has added up and there is minor flooding everywhere. Much windier very early this morning, not so bad now. Got it much worse here with Irene.

Experienced some 40+ mph gusts last night here in eastern NC, today slightly breezy although expect it to pick up as the day goes on and the storm is more parallel and closer to our location. Steady raining since Sat am but surprisingly light. Water on our river hasn't submerged my dock as yet, perhaps 2-3' higher than normal right now. Center is way out to sea from us but can tell (and feel) that it's a large storm, bless those in the direct path down the road.

[UpTheCreek]

I'm in New Bern too, by the high school. Are you on the Neuse or Trent? I've noticed the light rain too. Not many downpours since yesterday, but the steady rain has added up and there is minor flooding everywhere. Much windier very early this morning, not so bad now. Got it much worse here with Irene.

Experienced some 40+ mph gusts last night here in eastern NC, today slightly breezy although expect it to pick up as the day goes on and the storm is more parallel and closer to our location. Steady raining since Sat am but surprisingly light. Water on our river hasn't submerged my dock as yet, perhaps 2-3' higher than normal right now. Center is way out to sea from us but can tell (and feel) that it's a large storm, bless those in the direct path down the road.

Hi, we're on Brice's Creek off the Trent. No, this will be nothing like Irene and I like to call this "manageable" flooding. Sure am glad it's off the coast but feel bad for the folks in the path up north. We'll see what this afternoon and tonight brings us, but we've been really fortunate!

[CrazyC83]

It's a bit breezy here but nothing significant. In 24 hours that is likely to change.

[vbhoutex]

Won't there be wave action on top of the combined tide + storm surge?

Yes there will be plenty of wave action on top of it. With Irene the seawall in lower Manhattan(?) was 1 foot from being overtopped. Current forecasts are putting the surge expected in NYC area at 1 foot more than during Irene. If this verifies it means there will definitely be flooding in some areas of NYC which could possibly include the subway system if they aren't properly "water proofed".

How high can sandbags realistically be placed to protect the NYC subways?

I don't know enough about how they would protect the subway entrances to answer that question. I guess realistically they could stack them as high as they had to if they had enough sandbags, but ????? I know that the subway system is "old", but one would hope they might have flood doors they might raise, at least in some places that would be more vulnerable to surge. Here in Houston, after billions of dollars of damage from flooding caused by TS Allison in 2001 100sM were spent to retrofit different areas that had flooded. They have since proved their worth in preventing some flooding in lesser situations than Allison.
Does anyone reading this have any knowledge of what they do in possible flooding situations like this in NYC.

[Sanibel]

I think the Gulf Stream is keeping that NW half alive.

[vbhoutex]

It's a bit breezy here but nothing significant. In 24 hours that is likely to change.

What are the predictions for your area?

[jlauderdal]

a1a flooding fort lauderdale today

[wxman57]

Great Sandy surge inundation site from CERA (Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment):

http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera-nc/cera-nc.cgi <-- surge maps

http://coastalemergency.org/ <-- main site

You can zoom in and see how much of an area will be underwater.

[WeatherGuesser]

PORTSMOUTH, Va. — The approach of Hurricane Sandy has prompted the Coast Guard to restrict access to ports in the coastal waters of the eastern shore of Maryland and Virginia.

Coast Guard officials said in a news release Saturday evening that it has set Port Condition Yankee, which means gale-force winds are possible within 24 hours at the Virginia Capes. No vessel may enter ports along the eastern shore without the permission of the captain of the port.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/coa ... story.html

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Sandy

[CrazyC83]

It's a bit breezy here but nothing significant. In 24 hours that is likely to change.

What are the predictions for your area?

I'm struggling to analyze surface mixing but 850mb and 925mb winds appear to be headed to about 75-80 kt. Not sure what that means for the surface, but I estimate gusts 65 to 80 mph in the broad river valley I am in and about 50 to 65 mph elsewhere in this area.

[cycloneye]

I just saw NY governor Cuomo say "If Bloomburg decides evacuations today, transit will be available but only today. National Guard will be activated. NY airports are not being closed at this time, but most transit in NYC will be"

Good decision by him.

[CrazyC83]

I just saw NY governor Cuomo say "If Bloomburg decides evacuations today, transit will be available but only today. National Guard will be activated. NY airports are not being closed at this time, but most transit in NYC will be"

Good decision by him.

He seems to be Mayor and Governor now. NYC transit shutdown starting at 7 pm, and phasing out through the evening. I am sure other cities will follow soon.