ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

So just thought this was interesting. Here's the forecasted path of 8am today (top) and 2pm yesterday (bottom) from NHC.

[img ]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/8286/24807374.png[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

From these two graphics, the center was out of the cone, in a time frame of less than 24 hours.

think the NHC is being kind of ridiculous with that nw shift in that short amount of time now. For all we know it could still be 15.4N at 70W

[cpdaman]

c'mon now the short term shift SW was a center relocation which the models had

those same models take the storm NW next 12-24 hours per NHC statement, they are pros

now watch it be at 15.4/ 70 Lol

[Weatherboy1]

Keep in mind that some of the relative motion in the past several hours was likely due to center reformation. Also notice that the storm is slowing down, usually a prelude to a direction change. And also look at the CMISS mean-layer steering winds at the graphic below. You can clearly see the break in the ridge that is over the northern Gulf/FL. You can also see that Isaac is reaching the western periphery of the strongest part of the Atlantic ridge. Therefore, I believe a turn more toward the NHC coordinates is imminent -- and will likely be apparent on the recon plots and satellite imagery by this afternoon or tonight at the latest. My opinion, as an amateur, as always.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[meriland23]

c'mon now the short term shift SW was a center relocation which the models had

those same models take the storm NW next 12-24 hours per NHC statement, they are pros

now watch it be at 15.4/ 70 Lol

Not saying it will, I am just saying you never know lol

[wxwatcher1999]

Keep in mind that some of the relative motion in the past several hours was likely due to center reformation. Also notice that the storm is slowing down, usually a prelude to a direction change. And also look at the CMISS mean-layer steering winds at the graphic below. You can clearly see the break in the ridge that is over the northern Gulf/FL. You can also see that Isaac is reaching the western periphery of the strongest part of the Atlantic ridge. Therefore, I believe a turn more toward the NHC coordinates is imminent -- and will likely be apparent on the recon plots and satellite imagery by this afternoon or tonight at the latest. My opinion, as an amateur, as always.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

How long is that break in the ridge supposed to be their before it builds back in?

[Weatherboy1]

That break should maintain itself for a few days at least. Long enough to start drawing Isaac more northward in my opinion. But this is also not October, so you don't have a huge trough coming down and "scooping" him up. So the turn should be more gradual. The question is whether some additional ridging builds back in, forcing Isaac more westerly (kind of what the EURO is seeing) or whether Isaac will be stronger sooner, move faster, and the ridge will rebuild less (what other models are seeing). My personal opinion is that this thing never sees farther west than, say, Panama City area in FL - and I'm more inclined to expect him to "pop" pretty soon and therefore turn sooner and more closely threaten South FL. But it really depends on what the modelling shows us over the next two major cycles.

Just an opinion of an amateur.

[petit_bois]

euro rolls in about noon?

[wxwatcher1999]

euro rolls in about noon?

Will new data and center fix be implemented in it?

[Portastorm]

euro rolls in about noon?

Will new data and center fix be implemented in it?

No ... the G-IV data which will be gathered early this afternoon will not be in those models. At the earliest, the data will be ingested into tonight's 0z runs.

[Weatherboy1]

No. Euro won't run until about 2-2:30-ish Eastern time. Other global models including GFS will start coming out in the next hour.

[otowntiger]

The classic 're-curve hook' that's being depicted in some of the ensemble models (GFS I think) give me a little pause. That kinda reminds me a little bit of Charley. Until now it seems that hard right turn was not indicated by any model or anyone for that matter. Now that it seems to be showing up, (albeit not until it gets to near the Big Bend area) makes we wonder if we could have a Charley type surprise where it hooks earlier than anticipated across the penninsula? Hmmm. Now of course I'm not real concerned about a Charley type storm in terms of intensity since this storm is so large compared to the compact Charley that rapid intensification is not as likely plus given the storms inability to get its act together so far I just don't see it being too severe. But as always no one seems to really know what it will do intensity-wise.

Whatchyall think?

Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about, refer to local officials, pro mets and NHC for real info and don't pay me no mind!

[Blown Away]

12z


12z Dynamic Models

Interesting the TVCN consensus is an outlier. Which way will the trend go??

[Vortex]

12z GFS rolling...

[ROCK]

TVCN jumped that for left? that doesnt make sense. Its blend of the dynamic models which are narrowing down a EGOM solution.....very odd....

[deltadog03]

12z gfs is rolling..

[Vortex]

12Z GFS-H+36 landfall cental Haiti....

[KWT]

12z GFS looks pretty good to me in the first 36hrs, landfall in Haiti but a little further west than the 06z, heading towards E.Cuba.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Emerges by 42.

[Vortex]

H+48 over eastern Cuba...

[Aric Dunn]

appears a little to the east. now crossing over the peninsula then between cuba and hati more time over water.