ATL: ISAAC - Models

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otowntiger
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Re:

#2141 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 am

Vortex wrote:12Z GFS-H+36 landfall cental Haiti....
Bad for Haiti but that track would tear up whatever is Isaac by that time, hopefully.
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#2142 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:44 am

Vortex wrote:H+48 over eastern Cuba...


yep wobble north now more of a wnw to nw motion over land.
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Re: Re:

#2143 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:45 am

otowntiger wrote:
Vortex wrote:12Z GFS-H+36 landfall cental Haiti....
Bad for Haiti but that track would tear up whatever is Isaac by that time.


If it took this route wouldn't have to start moving nw real soon..maybe I'm just looking at it wrong
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#2144 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:46 am

Yep more of a NW overland, all depends on whether the system get decoupled or not over the mountions...probably won't spend enough time overland for that to happen.

That does seem to be a trend lately...NOT a good trend at all for Florida!
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#2145 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:46 am

51 hours appears to be back over water.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2146 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:47 am

ROCK wrote:TVCN jumped that for left? that doesnt make sense. Its blend of the dynamic models which are narrowing down a EGOM solution.....very odd....


If the NHC stays w/ TVCN maybe they are thinking a more west track b/c most of the other guidance is well east? We have seen them stray from TVCN, so IMO them staying w/ the it being an outlier says they think that's the trend. What do I know, answer nothing, but it's just an observation! :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2147 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:48 am

hmmm 60 hours back almost west motion. and ridging still holding could shift to the left this run

Image
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#2148 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:48 am

Motion back to being WNW along Cuba between 54-60hrs. Riding right along Cuba's spine between those two frames.
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#2149 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:49 am

GFS 12hr

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GFS 24 hr

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GFS 36 hr

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Re:

#2150 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:49 am

Aric Dunn wrote:appears a little to the east. now crossing over the peninsula then between cuba and hati more time over water.


East of what? It is west of the 06z and 00z run.
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#2151 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:51 am

GFS 48 hr

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GFS 60 hr

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GFS 72 hr

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#2152 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:52 am

H+66 on central Cuban coast, weakness well noted over FL....
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#2153 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:52 am

69 hours the break is very pronounced but little change in direction basically going down the spine of cuba.
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#2154 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:52 am

Spending alot of time over Cuba on this run, still down the spine of Cuba at 72hrs, maybe a touch south of the ensemble consensus from earlier though not much in it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2155 Postby djmikey » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:54 am

Please describe verbal descriptions of the GFS run as many of us can not see the pics at work do to filtering....thanks!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2156 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:54 am

78 hours finally back over water but the ridging appears to be build back in... hmmm


Image
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#2157 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:54 am

H+78 about to emerge into the straits due south of Miami...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2158 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:54 am

Looks alot like the EURO...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2159 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:55 am

gfs 84 hr

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#2160 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:56 am

H+84 over straits about 100 miles or so SE of lower keys and beginning to ramp up..
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