ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2161 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:56 am

Cuba has some pretty tough terrain....A track like that could jack up the core somewhat...should be depicted by the run, IMO....
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#2162 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:57 am

As I was saying last night, interaction with Cuba is key here. The more towards the SW tip it makes landfall, the closer to EURO the GFS will be. IMO significant shift this morning.
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#2163 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:57 am

H+90 Deepening and very near lower keys...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2164 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:58 am

ROCK wrote:Cuba has some pretty tough terrain....A track like that could jack up the core somewhat...should be depicted by the run, IMO....


Agreed a track that takes that long over land is going to cause decent weakening...unless the atmosphere is super primed, like it was for Georges...
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Re:

#2165 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:58 am

Vortex wrote:H+90 Deepening and very near lower keys...


not very much movement the past almost 24 hours. the weakness is there but nothing really to pick it.

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#2166 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:58 am

Wow, this run is a free and open ride to the N Gulf Coast with no barriers. What will stop it froi getting stronger?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2167 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:58 am

gfs 96 hr

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#2168 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:59 am

H+96 turning NW just N of lower keys...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2169 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:00 am

It looks like Isaac will stall on this run not good for metro broward, dade and palm beach counties.
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#2170 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:00 am

it was much closer to the southern tip of the peninsula on on last nights models at this time...thats a good 100-150 mile shift west at the 96 hour point
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2171 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:03 am

GFS 108 hr (in motion, booking its way away from fl into gulf)



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#2172 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:03 am

H+102 heading NW/NNW parallel to FL west coast..maybe 100 or so miles SW of Ft. Myers
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#2173 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:05 am

Quite a bit further offshore in the gulf on this run...
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Re:

#2174 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Quite a bit further offshore in the gulf on this run...


woukld say quite a bit. more like 50 miles.
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#2175 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 am

12hr motion between 96-108 is inbetween NW and NNW, pulling away into the E.Gulf. Steering currents seem to have slackened off as well...
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Re: Re:

#2176 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 am

Can GFS model come back east. This same model run of the GFs was west yesterday as well.
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#2177 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 am

run the loop. see the motion. 114 hrs turning north just like the 00z run maybe 20 to 50 miles left of that. not much change at days 5 just spends more time over cuba

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2178 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 am

gfs 120 hr

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#2179 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:07 am

Could intensify before landfall in that warm bath
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#2180 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:08 am

Certainly not headed for the big bend like last run...thats for sure.
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