ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Same intensity maybe?

[mcheer23]

Same intensity maybe?

45kts, 50mph

[Portastorm]

Hey gang, let's cut the one-two word posts unless they have something of real value, ok?! Things are only going to get busier around here as Ernesto moves along and starts threatening populated areas. People will be coming here for real-time info and these one-two word posts will start getting deleted by yours truly and my fellow mods.

Thank you.

[pcolaman]

Looks to me that there is a draw to the nw of the overall structure of the storm. I still feel that the weakness will be felt and move into the gulf .

dry air getting entrained? That's what it looks like to me..

Yep dry air but was the disc. yesterday .... The dry air will be gone soon and then to hurricane in the am tomorrow .

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Same intensity maybe?

45kts, 50mph

Official?

[Extratropical94]

I would discount that 50 SFMR reading. It jumped from 37 to 49 to 50 and back down...and the rain rates were really high in that area (17 to 25), so most likely inflated by the rain.

Yeah they are rain contaminated but a few minutes later they recorded 50+ FL readings in an area of very little or no rain. The next data sets could be very interesting.

[Rgv20]

HPC Morning Discussion about Ernesto..

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

VALID 12Z WED AUG 08 2012 - 12Z SAT AUG 11 2012

...ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

"A MAJOR WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO...EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO. THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA/BELIZE ON
DY 5...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DY 6/7. WHILE WE DO SEE THE TYPICAL NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BY DY 6/7...THE CLUSTERING AROUND THE MEAN AND
TRACKS WITHIN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WITH THE CYCLONE BEGINNING ITS LIFE IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IT IS LESS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN U.S. AT LEAST THROUGH DY
5/6. THIS GIVES US AT LEAST SOME CONFIDENCE IN EXTRAPOLATING A DY
6/7 POSITION OVER THE WESTERN GULF...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
COAST. STILL...ANY POTENTIAL LANDFALL IN THE U.S. OR MEXICO WOULD
OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...MEANING THERE IS STILL A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER."

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041434
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120804
142530 1525N 06718W 8426 01595 0132 +160 +095 135046 047 037 001 00
142600 1526N 06717W 8429 01592 0131 +163 +095 136044 046 036 001 00
142630 1528N 06716W 8426 01597 0131 +164 +095 137042 043 035 002 00
142700 1529N 06715W 8430 01591 0132 +164 +096 136042 044 034 000 00
142730 1530N 06714W 8428 01598 0134 +161 +096 137043 044 034 000 00
142800 1531N 06712W 8432 01594 0137 +159 +096 138044 045 034 000 00
142830 1532N 06711W 8426 01599 0134 +163 +096 139047 049 033 001 00
142900 1533N 06710W 8433 01591 0136 +160 +096 138050 051 033 001 00
142930 1534N 06709W 8425 01599 0140 +154 +096 137045 049 032 000 00
143000 1535N 06708W 8429 01596 0138 +158 +095 138043 044 031 000 00
143030 1537N 06706W 8430 01601 0143 +160 +095 139042 043 030 000 03
143100 1538N 06707W 8426 01607 0144 +160 +096 136043 044 /// /// 03
143130 1539N 06709W 8427 01598 0139 +161 +098 138041 043 025 001 03
143200 1538N 06710W 8424 01601 0134 +164 +098 138043 044 029 001 00
143230 1538N 06712W 8432 01590 0132 +165 +097 141047 049 031 001 00
143300 1538N 06714W 8425 01599 0133 +164 +096 138045 048 031 000 00
143330 1538N 06716W 8428 01597 0131 +165 +094 131043 043 031 000 00
143400 1538N 06718W 8429 01595 0133 +165 +093 128042 043 031 002 00
143430 1538N 06720W 8430 01592 0133 +164 +093 129042 043 032 000 00
143500 1538N 06722W 8426 01598 0133 +163 +093 128043 045 034 001 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

the GFDL and HWRF are either going to be very right or they are going to bomb!! JMO...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

52kt recon winds.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 041443
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERNESTO WEAKER DESPITE THE WELL
ORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA
SUNDAY EVENING AND THE MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

I would discount that 50 SFMR reading. It jumped from 37 to 49 to 50 and back down...and the rain rates were really high in that area (17 to 25), so most likely inflated by the rain.

Yeah they are rain contaminated but a few minutes later they recorded 50+ FL readings in an area of very little or no rain. The next data sets could be very interesting.

Yes, with SFMR in the 40 to 43 knot range with those 50+ knot FL winds...which seems about right. 45 knots, at the moment, seems good for a max intensity. However, I have a feeling that might start changing and the winds will start increasing shortly.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041444
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120804
143530 1538N 06724W 8428 01594 0133 +165 +093 129046 047 036 000 00
143600 1538N 06726W 8425 01599 0133 +164 +093 129046 046 035 002 00
143630 1538N 06728W 8430 01593 0132 +163 +094 126045 046 034 001 00
143700 1538N 06730W 8422 01600 0132 +165 +094 127044 045 035 003 00
143730 1538N 06732W 8428 01594 0131 +165 +094 130042 043 036 003 00
143800 1538N 06734W 8432 01593 0134 +160 +094 128044 045 039 003 00
143830 1538N 06736W 8422 01603 0135 +160 +092 125046 048 041 003 03
143900 1538N 06738W 8426 01596 0134 +159 +091 125047 047 039 001 00
143930 1538N 06740W 8426 01595 0133 +162 +092 123046 047 038 002 00
144000 1538N 06742W 8428 01593 0132 +162 +092 124045 045 039 001 00
144030 1538N 06744W 8425 01599 0132 +161 +092 125045 046 039 000 00
144100 1538N 06746W 8433 01589 0131 +163 +093 125046 047 041 001 03
144130 1538N 06748W 8427 01596 0131 +161 +093 126047 047 043 001 00
144200 1538N 06750W 8424 01598 0129 +165 +094 124046 047 042 000 00
144230 1538N 06752W 8431 01591 0129 +163 +095 123046 046 042 002 00
144300 1538N 06754W 8430 01591 0131 +159 +095 122047 047 041 001 00
144330 1538N 06757W 8426 01592 0128 +164 +094 123046 047 041 000 00
144400 1538N 06759W 8427 01594 0128 +165 +095 123045 046 042 001 00
144430 1538N 06801W 8426 01592 0128 +163 +096 119044 045 043 001 00
144500 1538N 06803W 8427 01592 0126 +167 +096 120048 050 040 003 00
$$
;

[mcheer23]

50 mph...into gulf as 70mph ts. NHC nudges track a very very small fraction to the north

[Meteorcane]

Appears like dry air is being entrained on the NW side, that being said the center appears to be moistening at the expense of the fringes of the storm.

[Extratropical94]

I would discount that 50 SFMR reading. It jumped from 37 to 49 to 50 and back down...and the rain rates were really high in that area (17 to 25), so most likely inflated by the rain.

Yeah they are rain contaminated but a few minutes later they recorded 50+ FL readings in an area of very little or no rain. The next data sets could be very interesting.

Yes, with SFMR in the 40 to 43 knot range with those 50+ knot FL winds...which seems about right. 45 knots, at the moment, seems good for a max intensity. However, I have a feeling that might start changing and the winds will start increasing shortly.

I'm totally with you on that and I hope that they are gonna fly through the eastern sector as the convective activity due to moist unstable air seems to contain the highest winds.

[wxman57]

45 kts appears right. That's what the recon found. The 50kt SFMR winds were rain-contaminated and not believable at all. And any 45 kt sustained surface winds cover only a very small area NE of the center. Average 1min winds around the storm are closer to 25-30 kts.

[wxman57]

52kt recon winds.

At 10,000 ft, not at the surface.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

45 kts appears right. That's what the recon found. The 50kt SFMR winds were rain-contaminated and not believable at all. And any 45 kt sustained surface winds cover only a very small area NE of the center. Average 1min winds around the storm are closer to 25-30 kts.

A couple 50kt winds were in an area of light wind.Brain fart: rain!

[brunota2003]

For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.

On another subject:

Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!