ATL: ISAAC - Models

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KWT
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#2181 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:08 am

Moving NW, way west of the 06z run from the looks of things!!
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#2182 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:09 am

one thing that would happen is a lot of rain over florida regardless of landfall on the peninsula
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2183 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:09 am

yep, this thing could keep shifting west..u never know, I mean everything is all about timing and steering currents are really weak
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#2184 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:10 am

That's a larger than 50 mile shift from the 06z as it approaches the northern gulf. Looks like Pensacola area this run.
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#2185 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:10 am

KWT wrote:Moving NW, way west of the 06z run from the looks of things!!


06z was in the big bend this looks like landfall about 75 miles west near Apalachicola
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#2186 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:10 am

H126 just offshore FL panhandale....
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#2187 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 am

We shall have to see if the all important 0z run shows this as well. GIV progged to take off in less than 1.5 hours.
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Re:

#2188 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:one thing that would happen is a lot of rain over florida regardless of landfall on the peninsula


We've had so much rain here in our area of Fla the last 2 weeks. The last 2 days it's finally stopped after 2 weeks of it raining every single day. Hopefully the ground will have time to dry out and the roots on these trees won't be at such a weakened point where a good stiff breeze will topple them.
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#2189 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 am

Not sure why some members are suggesting this isn't a major shift because that's what I am seeing. JMHO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2190 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 am

wonder how much farther west, do the calculation man lol lol
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2191 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

Looking very much like Dennis so far. Could end up being a good analog for Isaac.
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#2192 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

Cmonnnn 18z and 0z (probably more likely to be 0z)..Enough of this GiGo. The model runs with the balloon and G-IV data this evening should start to zero in on a solution..

That being said here is the 06z HWRF operation plot chart

Image
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#2193 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

The weakness is there...looks like it will start heading north now. HR 120
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#2194 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

H+132 landfall near panama city...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2195 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

gfs 132 hr

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#2196 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 am

Looks like a dangerous situation if the 12z is correct

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal126.gif

Steering has just about gone now, slowed right down and crawling towards land in far western Panhandle.
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Re:

#2197 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 am

Vortex wrote:H126 just offshore FL panhandale....


between 75 and 100 mile shift to the west this run. nothing major still very good run to run consistency. this run similar to yesterdays 12z run.

Image
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Re:

#2198 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 am

Lets hope its not. We dont want the price of gas to go up.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2199 Postby wxman76 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:14 am

Remember that this is the first run since the relocation of the center. It's a little to the left of the NHC. Personally I can't argue too much about it. Yesterday I split the difference between the 12z GFS and 12Z Euro. I'm just keeping with it today.

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#2200 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:14 am

It still looks like Isaac has plans to visit Florida on the run. It should be interesting to see if the EURO continues to shift eastward.
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