ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

wxman57, you like this track and intensity?

[brunota2003]

45 kts appears right. That's what the recon found. The 50kt SFMR winds were rain-contaminated and not believable at all. And any 45 kt sustained surface winds cover only a very small area NE of the center. Average 1min winds around the storm are closer to 25-30 kts.

A couple 50kt winds were in an area of light wind.Brain fart: rain!

There was only one SFMR reading of 50 knots...what you are most likely talking about is flight level winds (which are good regardless of the rain rate). Those are always higher than the surface winds, and thus, need to be converted to find out what the ground winds are, roughly.

[Meteorcane]

For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.

On another subject:

Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!

Yep certainly one of the benefits of observing/forecasting tropical cyclones in the Atlantic (As opposed to other basins that are purely reliant on satellite methods)

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041454
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120804
144530 1538N 06805W 8432 01589 0125 +168 +096 121048 049 042 000 00
144600 1538N 06807W 8426 01593 0125 +167 +097 117047 048 043 000 00
144630 1538N 06809W 8429 01589 0124 +170 +095 113047 048 042 002 00
144700 1538N 06811W 8429 01589 0123 +170 +095 111046 046 042 001 00
144730 1538N 06813W 8440 01577 0122 +169 +095 111045 046 042 000 00
144800 1538N 06815W 8424 01594 0122 +168 +096 111045 046 043 001 03
144830 1538N 06817W 8426 01591 0119 +170 +095 110045 046 043 000 00
144900 1538N 06819W 8427 01589 0118 +170 +095 110045 046 041 001 00
144930 1538N 06821W 8429 01587 0118 +170 +096 110046 047 043 001 00
145000 1538N 06823W 8430 01588 0119 +170 +096 110047 048 043 001 00
145030 1538N 06825W 8418 01595 0118 +170 +096 109046 047 042 001 00
145100 1538N 06828W 8427 01588 0118 +170 +094 106046 046 041 000 00
145130 1538N 06830W 8422 01592 0117 +170 +093 103046 047 040 000 00
145200 1538N 06832W 8432 01582 0117 +170 +093 103045 046 040 000 00
145230 1538N 06835W 8421 01594 0116 +171 +093 101045 046 041 000 00
145300 1538N 06837W 8429 01585 0115 +175 +093 095042 044 040 001 00
145330 1538N 06839W 8429 01585 0114 +175 +093 093042 043 040 000 03
145400 1538N 06841W 8425 01591 0116 +174 +094 092043 044 041 001 00
145430 1538N 06844W 8426 01585 0113 +175 +095 093042 043 041 001 00
145500 1538N 06846W 8426 01588 0114 +174 +095 092042 043 036 001 00
$$
;




gotta go, someone take it

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.

On another subject:

Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!

Recon has only sampled the North and West side of the storm, still hasn't touched the East or South East side. The parts they have sampled have been hindered by Dry Air, so I think it was irresponsible of the NHC to lower intensity when they haven't gotten a full sample yet.

Yeah, looks like they should be getting to that soon.

[brunota2003]

For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.

On another subject:

Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!

Recon has only sampled the North and West side of the storm, still hasn't touched the East or South East side. The parts they have sampled have been hindered by Dry Air, so I think it was irresponsible of the NHC to lower intensity when they haven't gotten a full sample yet.

They have sampled the Southern/SE side:
http://i.imgur.com/WelMz.jpg (Not going to post it as an image).

Now, is it possible that on this next pass through, the winds may have finally responded to the deep convection? Yes. But the forecasters can't sit there and go "oh, well, there *might* eventually be higher winds, so lets keep the current intensity higher than what all the data thus far has shown!" They have to go with the data, especially with recon in the system.

[Meteorcane]

I am surprised that the pressure was 1008mb....winds can take a long time to respond to structural improvement and are subject to all sorts of microscale factors (and measuring winds is more difficult), I would have thought a sub 1000 mb pressure based on satellite imagery.

[SoupBone]

so I think it was irresponsible of the NHC to lower intensity when they haven't gotten a full sample yet.

A small change in intensity at this moment has no effect on anything at the moment and can be changed as needed in the next discussion. It could be considered irresponsible if we were within 72 hours or so of a landfall. Not so much here.

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD for Sunday and Monday. No Gulfstream jet yet.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT SAT 04 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 72-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 70-
       A. 05/1200, 1800Z             A. 06/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0605A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 0705A ERNESTO
       C. 05/0930Z                   C. 05/2100Z
       D. 15.5N 74.5W                D. 15.7N 77.5W
       E. 05/1130Z TO 05/1800Z       E. 05/2330Z TO 06/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARKS: INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED OFF THE EAST COAST
       OF FLORIDA FOR 04/1900Z CANCELED AT 04/1210Z

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.

On another subject:

Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!

Recon has only sampled the North and West side of the storm, still hasn't touched the East or South East side. The parts they have sampled have been hindered by Dry Air, so I think it was irresponsible of the NHC to lower intensity when they haven't gotten a full sample yet.

They have sampled the Southern/SE side:
http://i.imgur.com/WelMz.jpg (Not going to post it as an image).

Now, is it possible that on this next pass through, the winds may have finally responded to the deep convection? Yes. But the forecasters can't sit there and go "oh, well, there *might* eventually be higher winds, so lets keep the current intensity higher than what all the data thus far has shown!" They have to go with the data, especially with recon in the system.

Since there was an intermediate advisory, it was not irresponsible to downgrade. Catch a wind of 50+kts, upgrade at 2pm.

[hurricanes1234]

What is really going on with this storm? Look at the impressive appearance on satellite imagery and that is how strong it is?! That has to be the weakest storm with that well-organized structure I have ever seen!

[brunota2003]

Got it for now

000
URNT15 KNHC 041504
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120804
145530 1538N 06848W 8424 01589 0119 +165 +096 089043 045 039 003 00
145600 1538N 06850W 8425 01587 0112 +177 +095 094046 047 039 001 00
145630 1538N 06853W 8424 01591 0110 +180 +095 094046 046 039 001 00
145700 1538N 06855W 8430 01585 0110 +182 +094 092044 046 037 001 00
145730 1538N 06857W 8421 01593 0114 +176 +093 090044 044 037 001 00
145800 1538N 06900W 8429 01584 0112 +180 +092 089042 043 036 001 00
145830 1538N 06902W 8427 01587 0111 +180 +093 090042 042 037 000 00
145900 1538N 06904W 8442 01570 0113 +177 +093 087040 041 037 001 00
145930 1538N 06906W 8420 01592 0113 +175 +094 083039 041 037 001 00
150000 1538N 06908W 8431 01580 0113 +174 +095 084039 040 036 000 00
150030 1538N 06910W 8430 01580 0113 +171 +095 083038 039 034 001 00
150100 1538N 06912W 8430 01581 0118 +162 +095 084039 040 038 003 00
150130 1538N 06914W 8430 01582 0123 +154 +092 078037 039 041 003 00
150200 1538N 06916W 8431 01580 0118 +164 +089 079039 039 042 003 00
150230 1538N 06918W 8429 01583 0110 +178 +088 082039 040 039 002 00
150300 1538N 06920W 8428 01584 0112 +174 +089 081037 039 035 000 00
150330 1538N 06922W 8428 01583 0108 +179 +090 080036 037 034 001 00
150400 1538N 06924W 8431 01583 0109 +178 +092 080036 037 034 000 00
150430 1538N 06926W 8428 01584 0110 +178 +094 081037 037 032 001 00
150500 1538N 06928W 8430 01580 0111 +175 +095 079036 037 033 000 00
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Blinhart, please check your PMs now. Thank you.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

6z GFDL at 126 hours:

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/4505 ... msl126.png

This certainly could be a disaster in the making, if it verifies.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What is really going on with this storm? Look at the impressive appearance on satellite imagery and that is how strong it is?! That has to be the weakest storm with that well-organized structure I have ever seen!

It could be still 60mph, still haven't sampled the eastern side, thats where the winds and moist air are. Check back in 2hours and 30mins should be upgraded if this is true.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking good on satellite:

14:45Z Visible:



14:45Z IR:



My hypothesis for the potential weakening is that recon showed very weak inflow on the South side. weak inflow = weak convergence. However the inflow got stronger as recon has been out there so let's see if the pressure starts to fall. (This is just my opinion, not a professional forecast)

[Portastorm]

Here is a rule reminder to all members here:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Both outflow and general shape are looking much better today.

[perk]

Is anybody other than me surprised that the NHC did'nt shift the track a little southward.

[cycloneye]

Is anybody other than me surprised that the NHC did'nt shift the track a little southward.

They did a little bit.Cuba is out of the cone at 11 AM.