ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Vortex]

H144, inland FL panhandle...very slow movement.

[meriland23]

gfs 144 hr



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[deltadog03]

Touchdown, near PCB......I would say we have some pretty good agreement....EURO will prolly shift a bit east over the next few days....

[KWT]

Well a fair shift west from the 12z GFS in the 96-144hr range, still plenty left to go before we know how this will end up.

[Stormlover2012]

maybe the upper level pattern starting to come on with the euro now, because euro steering currents are weak weak and it trys to build high pressure to the south east, don't say its nothing major because if it could shift another 100 miles on the next run expecially since its 6 days out still

[HURRICANELONNY]

Price of gas is already up. Just gives them another excuse to raise it more. I think the GFS model makes more sense to me. Panhandle and farther west makes more sense. If it was september it would probably be farther east. Trofs lift faster in august.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps very similar to gfs at 72hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[blp]

So far looks like a draw between Euro and GFS. Euro has moved east and the GFS has moved west. I think we are close to zeroing in on a path in the next few runs. Looks like the panhandle is in the crosshairs as some of the pro mets here stated yesterday. Let's see what happens.

Not an official forecast. For official information please defer to the NWS and NHC

[uhvjaguars22]

Im wondering if the euro will pull a fast one on us and keep going more west


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[meriland23]

does anyone else think that the strength depicted by gfs is a little.. well.. low?

[wzrgirl1]

What I am trying to understand through your posts is how much of an effect will south florida ( I live near Alligator Alley in Pembroke Pines) get before Isaac's final destination somewhere on the gulf coast? I know it is not forecasted to make a direct hit as of yet but I am confused as others are, when you say south florida will get minimal effects when the storm's winds and rains branch out 140 miles. Can someone please elaborate. Some of us are getting nervous down here.....thanks.

[Stormlover2012]

guys it could keep changing nothing is set in stone yet, heck it could move back to east coast of florida but with 6 days out and gfs moved about 100 miles west I feel the trend will keep going west, its not like we are 3 days out before landfall

[KWT]

GFS looks very similar to the NHC latest track...well the later runs will be interesting!!

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone else think that the strength depicted by gfs is a little.. well.. low?

no. the gfs is not a good indicator of strength. it will often have a strong ts when its actually a major hurricane.

[KWT]

nogaps very similar to gfs at 72hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Closer, still ends up a little right of the GFS op run but not by much.

[Weatherfreak000]

does anyone else think that the strength depicted by gfs is a little.. well.. low?

Not sure, might get shredded by Cuba. I'm wondering if the south jog may shift track more south in short term.

[Dean4Storms]

That looks more like Fort Walton Bch to Destin Landfall! Crap!

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps very similar to gfs at 72hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Closer, still ends up a little right of the GFS op run but not by much.

a little right at first then pretty close now.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[wxman76]

Meriland23, Yeah i certainly thing with that track it will be much stronger. But the slow motion to the coast may cause upwelling. My thinking is max strength would be in the open ocean and weakening towards the coast, but not weak. Still a strong storm maybe cat 2/3.

Personal forecast only. not official forecast. Please defer to NWS and NHC.

[KBBOCA]

What I am trying to understand through your posts is how much of an effect will south florida ( I live near Alligator Alley in Pembroke Pines) get before Isaac's final destination somewhere on the gulf coast? I know it is not forecasted to make a direct hit as of yet but I am confused as others are, when you say south florida will get minimal effects when the storm's winds and rains branch out 140 miles. Can someone please elaborate. Some of us are getting nervous down here.....thanks.

It's good to stay alert in Pembroke Pines even if Isaac stays somewhat off the W. Coast of FL as currently shown in several model runs.

Trinidad & Tobago were not even in Isaac's cone as he crossed the Lesser Antilles near Guadeloupe, but they got hammered with heavy rains & flooding about 400 miles to the south of the center due to heavy feeder bands.

The right side of the storm is often the place for tornadoes. So, stay tuned to the local forecast, NHC and just keep in mind that with a storm potentially this big, the exact track and cone are not the only thing to focus on. Think of the storm as having a "swath of impact." I'm pretty sure Pembroke Pines will still be well within that swath if the current models verify. Especially as the GFS looked like it had Isaac stalling just a bit in the Keys. That could dump a lot of rain on SE Florida and lead to flooding - like Irene in 1999.

I'm an amateur. This is just my opinion. But size of the storm matters and so even "outside the cone" you can get hit hard. Stay alert!