ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry but two of the most trusted global models within 5 days is not a good feeling at this point if you live here near Destin.

[jlauderdal]

GFS looks very similar to the NHC latest track...well the later runs will be interesting!!

once again being in the crosshairs at 120h is the place to be..that verifies everytime

[cpdaman]

if the NHC track poops another 20 miles west of so , isaac will avoid any direct mtn interaction from hispanola or central/eastern cuba ...perhaps just crossing cuba at it's narrow western end.

[artist]

What I am trying to understand through your posts is how much of an effect will south florida ( I live near Alligator Alley in Pembroke Pines) get before Isaac's final destination somewhere on the gulf coast? I know it is not forecasted to make a direct hit as of yet but I am confused as others are, when you say south florida will get minimal effects when the storm's winds and rains branch out 140 miles. Can someone please elaborate. Some of us are getting nervous down here.....thanks.

I say we wait until the G-IV flight has flown tomorrow and that data is ingested in the models after that as well as see what Isaac itself is doing at that point. Then we will have a much better feel as to the affects for us down here. At least that is what I am doing, being here in Palm Beach county. I know your feeling, though.

[Ivanhater]

Not looking good if I were in Pensacola....

[KWT]

Sorry but two of the most trusted global models within 5 days is not a good feeling at this point if you live here near Destin.

Plenty of time yet for things to change I'd have thought, but the models do seem to be slowly coming closer together again after diverging last night.

[stormhunter7]

Keep in mind it never hurts to look at climatology with a system... aka CLIP5. What have storms in the past done at this starting point. Just food for thought!

[Jevo]

What I am trying to understand through your posts is how much of an effect will south florida ( I live near Alligator Alley in Pembroke Pines) get before Isaac's final destination somewhere on the gulf coast? I know it is not forecasted to make a direct hit as of yet but I am confused as others are, when you say south florida will get minimal effects when the storm's winds and rains branch out 140 miles. Can someone please elaborate. Some of us are getting nervous down here.....thanks.

I say we wait until the G-IV flight has flown tomorrow and that data is ingested in the models after that as well as see what Isaac itself is doing at that point. Then we will have a much better feel as to the affects for us down here. At least that is what I am doing, being here in Palm Beach county. I know your feeling, though.

The G-IV is flying today

0z and 6z model runs should start to reflect the data... actually someone correct me if Im wrong.. there was a plan for 1730Z, however I dont see it anymore

EDIT... Nah it's still there

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 25/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1309A ISAAC
C. 24/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[Air Force Met]

Sorry but two of the most trusted global models within 5 days is not a good feeling at this point if you live here near Destin.

Destin's where I drew my dot for the customers a couple days ago...60 miles either side...looks to be a good choice.

[stormhunter7]

thanks air force met! lol.

[Jevo]

Well my personal favorite is running...

12z HWRF Initialized



12z HWRF +12



12z HWRF +24

[artist]

What I am trying to understand through your posts is how much of an effect will south florida ( I live near Alligator Alley in Pembroke Pines) get before Isaac's final destination somewhere on the gulf coast? I know it is not forecasted to make a direct hit as of yet but I am confused as others are, when you say south florida will get minimal effects when the storm's winds and rains branch out 140 miles. Can someone please elaborate. Some of us are getting nervous down here.....thanks.

I say we wait until the G-IV flight has flown tomorrow and that data is ingested in the models after that as well as see what Isaac itself is doing at that point. Then we will have a much better feel as to the affects for us down here. At least that is what I am doing, being here in Palm Beach county. I know your feeling, though.

The G-IV is flying today

0z and 6z model runs should start to reflect the data... actually someone correct me if Im wrong.. there was a plan for 1730Z, however I dont see it anymore

EDIT... Nah it's still there

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 25/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1309A ISAAC
C. 24/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

my days are running together here, thanks for the correction. It actually IS Thursday, isn't it?

[Jevo]

I say we wait until the G-IV flight has flown tomorrow and that data is ingested in the models after that as well as see what Isaac itself is doing at that point. Then we will have a much better feel as to the affects for us down here. At least that is what I am doing, being here in Palm Beach county. I know your feeling, though.

The G-IV is flying today

0z and 6z model runs should start to reflect the data... actually someone correct me if Im wrong.. there was a plan for 1730Z, however I dont see it anymore

EDIT... Nah it's still there

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 25/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1309A ISAAC
C. 24/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

my days are running together here, thanks for the correction. It actually IS Thursday, isn't it?

I sure hope so... I'm off Thursdays and if it's not Im going back to a grumpy director tomorrow.. I know what you mean though, staying up till 3am for the 06z Euro has caused my days to meld into each other

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +36

[KWT]

12z HWRF looks decent enough in the short term, heading through S.Haiti at 36hrs.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +48

[Aric Dunn]

the cmc has now come more left in line with gfs and all the others.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks AFM for chiming in. Always trust your judgement.

[Snowmarathon]

Looks fairly good that SE Fla is out of the woods once again......It has been a long time since metro (downtown) Miami, Fort Lauderdale, W. Palm have taken a direct hit from the Atlantic side... Andrew caused tremendous destruction in 92' but it was south of the metro areas....it could have been even worse .....With all the build up over the years I can't imagine a cat 3,4 or 5 of the Atlantic in the major metro areas now....SE Fla has been fortunate

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +60