ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[stephen23]

Has anyone else noticed how the CERA storm surge model has gotten significantly worse for NJ / NYC?

Here's the close-up graphic of the NYC metro from yesterday:



And here's the current CERA forecast:



Scary is an understatement.

With the Euro and gfs getting a lot stronger this last run wonder if they will go up again?"

[KatDaddy]

I hope everyone up there is taking this very seriously and getting to higher ground now. I have concern that Sandy will intensify a little more over the Gulf Stream tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Yes, winds can be as high as one or two categories as you go up. Many will lose most, if not all, of their windows. Look at what Wilma did to Miami for reference of what the buildings in NYC, and other major cities, will most likely experience. Winds at 850 mb of 120 knots would support surface winds between 72 and 84 knots on the surface (using a 60% and 70% reduction). I'm not sure what the best reduction would be in this scenario, honestly?

I worrie about this landmark building although is closed to visitors until further notice.

[stephen23]

Looks like Sandy is about to clear out all of the dry air she has been pulling for the past day?

[micktooth]

Hi Everyone! I've been a long time lurker and decided I would post before we lose power...

I'm about 25 miles inland "as the crow flyes" from Lewes/Rehobeth, Delaware. Currently, we are getting light rain and light wind. We started our preps on Thursday, which basically consisted of taking "everything" out of the shed and attic. The generator started on the first pull, Thank you God! You name it, we got it. Didn't need to go to the store one thing! We are now done and ready.

We are rural and are on well water, so we will be the last to get power back on. We spent all day yesterday filling 50 gallon jugs with water and 5 gallon containers. Solar showers are filled too. I'm doing all my baking today. The pine-apple upside down cake looks devine
The pantry full of home canned foods are a blessing at a time like this.

I just heard on the local tv that mandatory evacs are underway in Ocean City and the Delaware beaches (kent county). I've also gotten several emails from Verizon advising that connectivity might be an issue during the storm. Duh, Ya' think? So, I went to my inbox and sure enough, I can't send or receive messages....No big deal, but I will miss being online and losing the satellite. The weather radio, battery operated tv, and library will fill the gap.

Thanks to everyone for all you do here. It means alot




Regards,
Curmy

Good Luck, As one who lived in NOLA during Katrina, I know what you're about to go through. Some tips I've learned. Fill your bathtubs with water. You can use this to fill toilet tanks or other needs after the storm. Empty out your refrigerator now, especially perishable items that can spoil and rot. If you need to get in touch with friends and family, make sure you have EMAIL. Phones probably won't work, sometimes texting does but email servers are up once you can get in to them! Good luck!

[crimi481]

Perfect Storm

From this 1 min HR Visible - appears Sandy's Low surface cyclone not growing a Tower - instead tansferring it
upward/outward -to the forming Mid level Cold Core Eye Wall.

Eye-popping stuff

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=620

[cycloneye]

Tweet from NY NWS.

@NWSNewYorkNY Predicted water level of 11.7ft at #NYC Battery at 8:13PM MON would break record of 10.5ft on 9/15/60 w/ Hurr. Donna #Sandy

[tomboudreau]

Anyone else catch the part of the advisory for the hurricane center about the snowfall for the mountains of WV, VA, and NC? Not to often you see a paragraph dedicated to the snowfall potential.

[Raebie]

I cannot believe there's so little activity here.

What does the latest Euros show? There's no info on the models thread.

[stephen23]

I cannot believe there's so little activity here.

What does the latest Euros show? There's no info on the models thread.

Latest Euro shows same landfall but stronger storm. Latest run shows 120kt 850mb winds as Sandy makes the turn toward NYC area tomorrow. I am not able to post graphic off this computer due to work computer but you can see model at instantweathermap.com

[brunota2003]

Tweet from NY NWS.

@NWSNewYorkNY Predicted water level of 11.7ft at #NYC Battery at 8:13PM MON would break record of 10.5ft on 9/15/60 w/ Hurr. Donna #Sandy

Yikes! Mark Sudduth is traveling to NJ currently. Plans are to deploy 3 cameras and the wind tower.

My hope is to place a remote camera unit in Sea Isle, NJ, one in Atlantic City and one in Long Beach where I would like to also place the weather station. I am working on getting in touch with local officials to help them by providing them with no-cost access to the video feeds and weather data. It is a tough chore as I have never been to this area of the country before, not for a hurricane mission.

[cycloneye]

I cannot believe there's so little activity here.

What does the latest Euros show? There's no info on the models thread.

Is now posted at models thread.

[pricetag56]

With a 5.7 on the SSHS scale this is going to be a never before seen event on the east coast particulary in Jersey and NYC and if that surge map is any indicator staton island will be under water. Amazing and eerie that there is little activity in here.

[Raebie]

I cannot believe there's so little activity here.

What does the latest Euros show? There's no info on the models thread.

Is now posted at models thread.

Thank you!

[jinftl]

Current buoy reports show winds not anywhere near hurricane force....buoy north of Sandy on the map below is reporting sustained NE winds at 34 mph, buoy east of Sandy us reporting SSW winds sustained at 43 mph and the buoy west of Sandy has NW winds sustained at 52 mph. (numbers are temperature readings)

[weathermom]

I haven't seen any real discussion about rainfall. Lots about the surge obviously, but what are we looking at in rainfall on the northern side of the storm when it makes landfall?

[crimi481]

Not any past hstory to draw from - on this type system
But - being we have an un-heard of intense Blocking High to North -
which will meet up (near N.J) with an epic size Low pressure circulation from South -
who knows how strong winds become as result of the Pressure Gradiant ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

[wxsouth]

Current buoy reports show winds not anywhere near hurricane force....buoy north of Sandy on the map below is reporting sustained NE winds at 34 mph, buoy east of Sandy us reporting SSW winds sustained at 43 mph and the buoy west of Sandy has NW winds sustained at 52 mph. (numbers are temperature readings)


http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/926/buoysandy.jpg

Couple things to remember with buoy obs…
1) Often they reflect a 10-minute average, not the NHC 1-minute average.
2) the anemometers at many of the buoys are at 5 meters (15 feet). With wave heights of 25 to 30 feet, the buoy is spending half it's time in the protected trough of the waves.

So the actual 1-minute winds are likely higher than reported by buoys.

[brunota2003]

SFC WINDS 67 KTS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE 263 DEG / 145 NM W OF CTR IN RAINBAND ON OUTBOUND LEG
;

The above was from a vortex message from recon earlier. Winds are still there.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Latest American (GFS) & European models nearly identical in landfall point/intensity: Toms River NJ, 947mb. GFS says 8p Mon, Euro 11p Mon.