ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

This was taken at Cape May........already

[jinftl]

Estimates 10 million or so could lose power...esp in areas that still have leaves on the trees. The surge will be the real trouble maker and damage maker....wind will be a nuisance...esp if you lose power for a week

Not any past hstory to draw from - on this type system
But - being we have an un-heard of intense Blocking High to North -
which will meet up (near N.J) with an epic size Low pressure circulation from South -
who knows how strong winds become as result of the Pressure Gradiant ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

[stephen23]

I haven't seen any real discussion about rainfall. Lots about the surge obviously, but what are we looking at in rainfall on the northern side of the storm when it makes landfall?

I just heard this could be a 1/250 year rain event

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Slight east wobble?

climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=SE_Atlantic-vis-48




See NWS/NHC for official forcast

[jinftl]

From Dr. Jeff Master's blog earlier this p.m.:


Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

I haven't seen any real discussion about rainfall. Lots about the surge obviously, but what are we looking at in rainfall on the northern side of the storm when it makes landfall?

[SunnyThoughts]

This pic apparently was NOT from This storm. Sorry for the post. deleted.

[weathermom]

From Dr. Jeff Master's blog earlier this p.m.:


Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

I haven't seen any real discussion about rainfall. Lots about the surge obviously, but what are we looking at in rainfall on the northern side of the storm when it makes landfall?

Thanks for the info. 30% less would be wonderful! That would take it into the yard, but not into the house! (but we are still prepping for the worst, just in case)

As for the possibility of a 1/250 year event, I can't go there.......not even for a minute!

I guess only time will tell.

[stephen23]

Weather Channel Just said 12+ inches locally around NJ

[KBBOCA]

Been there... [there being Ocean Grove fishing pier - pictured above]
Thinking this afternoon of so many fun times with friends at the Jersey Shore... Spring Lake, Point Pleasant, Belmar, Long Beach Island, Ocean City.

Praying everyone makes it through ok. I'm sure there will be severe property devastation. I just hope and pray no lives are lost.

[jinftl]

Talk about the reach of this storm...folks in my hood...fort lauderdale are trapped in their homes on the beach this afternoon per NWS Miami due to flooding


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL
STREETS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WERE IMPASSABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FLOODED ROADS AND WATER ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

PEOPLE ARE ALSO TRAPPED IN HOMES IN THE NORTHERN FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH
AREA.


This is the pier off of Fort Lauderdale beach today by yours truly:

[stephen23]

What will be the effects the mountains will have on tranfer down of wind speeds? Will the mountains possibly tighten up the sytem as it comes on shore?

[TheEuropean]

Ocean Grove, NJ

Is this from a webcam? Do you have a link?

[sweetpea]

Been there... [there being Ocean Grove fishing pier - pictured above]
Thinking this afternoon of so many fun times with friends at the Jersey Shore... Spring Lake, Point Pleasant, Belmar, Long Beach Island, Ocean City.

Praying everyone makes it through ok. I'm sure there will be severe property devastation. I just hope and pray no lives are lost.

I was born in Pt. Pleasant, lived in Belmar, Asbury, Bradley and Lakewood. Know the area very well. My heart is breaking for all the devestation this storm will cause. I am also praying for everyone there. Have alot of family and friends in the area

[jaxfladude]

Sorry if posted already what is the latest number of people ordered to evacuate now?

[cycloneye]

5 PM Forecast Track.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/1zxxn5x.jpg

[jaxfladude]

5 PM Forecast Track.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/1zxxn5x.jpg

WOW
I hope that this is not as bad as it is feared to be.....Prayers.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 71.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

[Weatherguy173]

this storm will be nasty

[monicaei]

Looking at the satellite, is it now absorbing the front?

[Weatherguy173]

Looking at the satellite, is it now absorbing the front?

can't tell, but the satellite looks magnificent