ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Ernesto's center jumped northwest compared to the last recon fix.

[Meteorcane]

The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking

Surface obs and recon are very sparse, while satellite "gets the whole picture" (so to speak) every :15 or :30. I'm seeing an inner core CDO-ish structure powerfully venting at 200mb now, and that's almost always a prelude to rapid intensification. If the surface lags, my guess would be that the storm is now well developed at the 700+ mb level, and it's just a matter of time (hours) before a probably sloppy multi-whirled, slightly-displaced-to-the-southwest LLC is sucked back under the hot tower and tightens.

you guys seem to throw the term "rapid intensification" around as if it were a synonym for a strengthening phase. RI is a big deal, and as of now this thing is far from it. If I remember right, the pressure drop rate required to be considered RI is 2.5mb an hour for 12 hours or more. thats a minimum of 30 mb. Ernesto will not be strengthening like that anytime soon.

Thank You very much, the definition of RI is pretty clear/quantitative

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041614
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120804
160530 1403N 06819W 8428 01576 0137 +127 +070 178043 043 044 009 00
160600 1402N 06818W 8430 01578 0140 +123 +069 178042 043 044 009 00
160630 1401N 06817W 8431 01577 0135 +133 +068 174043 043 044 008 00
160700 1400N 06816W 8421 01588 0133 +137 +068 171039 043 042 008 00
160730 1359N 06815W 8422 01585 0133 +138 +069 174035 037 040 009 00
160800 1358N 06814W 8442 01566 0136 +134 +071 181037 038 041 010 00
160830 1357N 06813W 8434 01578 0138 +132 +073 178037 038 040 011 00
160900 1356N 06812W 8428 01581 0136 +137 +073 175039 040 039 009 00
160930 1355N 06811W 8423 01587 0133 +143 +072 177040 042 037 009 00
161000 1354N 06810W 8426 01587 0135 +143 +071 176037 037 037 009 00
161030 1353N 06809W 8433 01580 0132 +146 +071 174036 036 036 006 00
161100 1352N 06808W 8428 01586 0132 +148 +071 174035 036 035 005 00
161130 1351N 06807W 8429 01583 0132 +150 +071 177034 035 035 006 00
161200 1350N 06806W 8424 01591 0133 +145 +072 176033 034 036 006 00
161230 1349N 06805W 8403 01610 0128 +152 +074 181028 035 039 007 00
161300 1347N 06804W 8429 01582 0129 +148 +076 181026 032 039 007 00
161330 1346N 06803W 8427 01586 0132 +145 +077 187028 032 036 004 00
161400 1345N 06802W 8432 01580 0131 +147 +076 175032 032 035 003 00
161430 1344N 06801W 8428 01587 0128 +154 +076 179032 032 036 001 00
161500 1343N 06800W 8429 01585 0129 +153 +076 179031 032 035 002 00
$$
;

[Blinhart]

The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking

Surface obs and recon are very sparse, while satellite "gets the whole picture" (so to speak) every :15 or :30. I'm seeing an inner core CDO-ish structure powerfully venting at 200mb now, and that's almost always a prelude to rapid intensification. If the surface lags, my guess would be that the storm is now well developed at the 700+ mb level, and it's just a matter of time (hours) before a probably sloppy multi-whirled, slightly-displaced-to-the-southwest LLC is sucked back under the hot tower and tightens.

you guys seem to throw the term "rapid intensification" around as if it were a synonym for a strengthening phase. RI is a big deal, and as of now this thing is far from it. If I remember right, the pressure drop rate required to be considered RI is 2.5mb an hour for 12 hours or more. thats a minimum of 30 mb. Ernesto will not be strengthening like that anytime soon.

You should never be so confident about RI, you never know about RI, that is why everyone likes to speculate when it might happen.

[Rgv20]

GFS again has Ernesto in the BOC by Friday..

[Hammy]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/542/08041545z.gif/

Aruba radar if it helps with the structure any

(tried showing as image but wouldn't show it )

[cheezyWXguy]

You should never be so confident about RI, you never know about RI, that is why everyone likes to speculate when it might happen.

Im pretty confident. If you'd like to wager that this will be at 974 mb by midnight tonight I'll glad you take you up on it.

[Portastorm]

You should never be so confident about RI, you never know about RI, that is why everyone likes to speculate when it might happen.

Im pretty confident. If you'd like to wager that this will be at 974 mb by midnight tonight I'll glad you take you up on it.

Hey ... this is a family friendly board ... keep those "gambling" discussions limited to PMs, please!

[brunota2003]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041616
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/15:54:20Z
B. 14 deg 26 min N
068 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 32 kt
E. 302 deg 44 nm
F. 068 deg 34 kt
G. 307 deg 86 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 14 C / 1520 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 14
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:15:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 16:06:00Z
;

[Stephanie]

Here is a rule reminder to all members here:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

I'm going to add that the posts will be deleted and you will be warned and you can be sent on a little "vacation". It adds NOTHING to the discussion thread. If you have a personal problem, take it to pm.

[brunota2003]

1005 millibars is the final call after they decided to do a loopy loop

[Hurricaneman]

wow, this storm jumped 1* to the north, probably means nothing, but it may give a better chance at a north turn

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cheezyWXguy]

To be fair the initializing data was a 1008 mb system not exactly a powerhouse (although its presentation looks solid at the moment).

haha that is a good point. As of this point, Florence's pressure is actually LOWER than Ernesto's, so at this point the initialization may not be that bad, at least for the moment. It looks like Ernesto is strengthening again though, so we'll have to see.

[Shuriken]

Surface obs and recon are very sparse, while satellite "gets the whole picture" (so to speak) every :15 or :30. I'm seeing an inner core CDO-ish structure powerfully venting at 200mb now, and that's almost always a prelude to rapid intensification. If the surface lags, my guess would be that the storm is now well developed at the 700+ mb level, and it's just a matter of time (hours) before a probably sloppy multi-whirled, slightly-displaced-to-the-southwest LLC is sucked back under the hot tower and tightens.

you guys seem to throw the term "rapid intensification" around as if it were a synonym for a strengthening phase. RI is a big deal, and as of now this thing is far from it. If I remember right, the pressure drop rate required to be considered RI is 2.5mb an hour for 12 hours or more. thats a minimum of 30 mb. Ernesto will not be strengthening like that anytime soon.

2.5mb>12hr is 30mb. ....it is not unreasonable, at least to me, that Ernesto will enter such a phase within the next 24hrs unless the whole system goes fallow for a time as it clears the Caribbean "pinch-point" at 72W. (Given the most recent 1008mb reading, a drop of 30mb only yields 978mb.)

[Stephanie]

gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right

Are you not suppose to put a disclaimer when you make predictions like this. Woud it not be better in the models thread.

Already addressed by a Moderator above. Thank you.

[Stephanie]

gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right

Complete words are nice. Also, shouldn't this have a disclaimer? And be in the model thread?

Already addressed by another Moderator above.

There is a report button to use for the Moderators to see. This way you don't have to clog up the discusssion thread with posts like this. Thank you.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041624
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120804
161530 1342N 06758W 8425 01595 0132 +159 +078 179035 037 033 002 03
161600 1344N 06757W 8426 01589 0126 +162 +081 177036 037 035 001 00
161630 1346N 06757W 8429 01585 0126 +160 +083 174035 036 036 000 03
161700 1348N 06757W 8429 01588 0126 +160 +085 172033 033 036 000 00
161730 1349N 06756W 8426 01591 0125 +160 +085 173033 035 036 001 00
161800 1351N 06756W 8429 01586 0124 +162 +085 174035 036 037 000 00
161830 1353N 06755W 8426 01588 0122 +163 +085 175037 038 037 000 00
161900 1355N 06755W 8429 01585 0122 +166 +084 173032 036 037 001 00
161930 1357N 06755W 8426 01590 0121 +165 +085 174031 032 036 001 00
162000 1359N 06754W 8429 01586 0122 +163 +085 170034 035 036 000 00
162030 1401N 06754W 8429 01585 0124 +159 +085 170036 037 036 001 00
162100 1403N 06753W 8429 01583 0125 +160 +085 169035 037 035 000 00
162130 1404N 06753W 8429 01584 0121 +163 +084 173037 038 035 001 00
162200 1406N 06753W 8428 01586 0120 +165 +084 173039 039 035 001 00
162230 1408N 06752W 8429 01583 0120 +163 +084 173039 040 036 001 00
162300 1410N 06752W 8426 01585 0120 +163 +084 174040 041 037 001 00
162330 1412N 06751W 8429 01583 0123 +159 +083 171038 040 038 000 00
162400 1414N 06751W 8429 01582 0122 +158 +082 171040 041 038 001 00
162430 1416N 06750W 8427 01585 0120 +160 +081 173041 042 038 001 00
162500 1418N 06750W 8429 01582 0122 +158 +081 169043 044 039 001 00
$$
;

[Air Force Met]

Does the GFS know something that we don't? Either that or it's on Drugs. How can it miss initializing this system clear as day. Especially with how large the system structure is. I'm confused.

These same conversations were going on with Debby. "What's the GFS thinking?" "It doesn't even see it!"

How'd that work out?

Ignore all the global models saying the same thing at your own peril.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ernesto's center jumped northwest compared to the last recon fix.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.


Hmmmmm....it's funny...but doesn't the GFDL seem to predict that? Also doesn't it almost seem lik the GFDL is currently verifying intensity forecasting?


Storm should come quite close to Jamaica and probably just brush the Yucatan's NE tip...the weakness will stilll be there....and it's gonna go to MEXICO?



Yeah...no. Not buying it. STX has a decent shot though, IMO.

[SouthDadeFish]

You should never be so confident about RI, you never know about RI, that is why everyone likes to speculate when it might happen.

Im pretty confident. If you'd like to wager that this will be at 974 mb by midnight tonight I'll glad you take you up on it.

Besides your wager, what factors make you so confident about this? Ernesto doesn't even have an impressive circulation right now according to recon data. Almost all the winds in the SE quadrant were out of the S instead of SW. Also the winds on the SW side are very weak. Yes satellite presentation is impressive, but that is not everything. Recon did report anything about Ernesto forming an eyewall yet, and that would probably have to happen first before he can hit 974mb. Building an eyewall takes time.